Posts: 3,827
Threads: 36
Reputation:
21840
Joined: May 2015
I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:
The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos
So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.
If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.
This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.
Posts: 3,205
Threads: 101
Reputation:
18142
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:
The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos
So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.
If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.
This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.
Yea, they are beyond 99%. I don’t think the team is happy with that, which is a good thing.
Posts: 5,598
Threads: 62
Reputation:
38730
Joined: May 2015
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:
The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos
So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.
If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.
This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.
They play each other Saturday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.
1
Posts: 38,526
Threads: 910
Reputation:
129976
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:15 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: They play each other Sunday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.
I also believe if we tie the Patriots will tie
2
1
Posts: 3,827
Threads: 36
Reputation:
21840
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:15 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: They play each other Sunday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.
Derp. You’re right.
But still…either of those things gets the Bengals in.
Posts: 3,827
Threads: 36
Reputation:
21840
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:17 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I also believe if we tie the Patriots will tie
…
Which would also get us in.
Posts: 8,489
Threads: 28
Reputation:
96524
Joined: May 2015
Don't see the Jets or Patriots going 3-0, but could see the Chargers doing so.
But confident the Bengals are going to win the North so it matters not anyway.
The water tastes funny when you're far from your home,
yet it's only the thirsty that hunger to roam.
Roam the Jungle !
Posts: 627
Threads: 2
Reputation:
4529
Joined: Sep 2015
Location: OH!
(12-19-2022, 01:15 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: They play each other Sunday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.
Saturday, really. Hopefully Santa delivers us a win on Christmas Eve.
Posts: 309
Threads: 7
Reputation:
1327
Joined: Dec 2017
I must be missing something because:
The Bengals have the tie-breakers against Jets and Dolphins.
Jets can't get more than 10 wins. Bengals have tiebreaker.
Dolphins have to play NE, so either 1) NE wins and we have tiebreaker over Dolphins OR 2) Dolphins win and NE can't get to 10 wins.
So only one wild card team from the West could be better than the Bengals.
Baltimore can be ignored for WC if they win the division.
Only the Chargers from the West could be a higher ranked wild card.
My conclusion: Only the Dolphins OR the Patriots and the Chargers can get to 11 wins (Dolphins) or to 10 wins with the tie-breaker. I think we're already in.
Posts: 4,989
Threads: 174
Reputation:
6912
Joined: May 2015
We got tiebreaker on the Jets so they don't matter. New England is the only reason we haven't clinched yet.
Posts: 38,526
Threads: 910
Reputation:
129976
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:33 AM)puddycat Wrote: I must be missing something because:
The Bengals have the tie-breakers against Jets and Dolphins.
Jets can't get more than 10 wins. Bengals have tiebreaker.
Dolphins have to play NE, so either 1) NE wins and we have tiebreaker over Dolphins OR 2) Dolphins win and NE can't get to 10 wins.
So only one wild card team from the West could be better than the Bengals.
Baltimore can be ignored for WC if they win the division.
Only the Chargers from the West could be a higher ranked wild card.
My conclusion: Only the Dolphins OR the Patriots and the Chargers can get to 11 wins (Dolphins) or to 10 wins with the tie-breaker. I think we're already in.
But what if the Bengals and the Pats both win this week?
Posts: 3,205
Threads: 101
Reputation:
18142
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:36 AM)bfine32 Wrote: But what if the Bengals and the Pats both win this week?
Cant be done.
Posts: 2,212
Threads: 135
Reputation:
11232
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:33 AM)puddycat Wrote: I must be missing something because:
The Bengals have the tie-breakers against Jets and Dolphins.
Jets can't get more than 10 wins. Bengals have tiebreaker.
Dolphins have to play NE, so either 1) NE wins and we have tiebreaker over Dolphins OR 2) Dolphins win and NE can't get to 10 wins.
So only one wild card team from the West could be better than the Bengals.
Baltimore can be ignored for WC if they win the division.
Only the Chargers from the West could be a higher ranked wild card.
My conclusion: Only the Dolphins OR the Patriots and the Chargers can get to 11 wins (Dolphins) or to 10 wins with the tie-breaker. I think we're already in.
You are missing the conference record.
The below can still happen.
Regular Conference
LA 11 - 6 8-4
MIA 10 - 7 8-4
NE 10 - 7 7-5
Jets 10 - 7 7 -5
Cincy 10 -7 6-6
Posts: 6,046
Threads: 869
Reputation:
15246
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:
The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos
So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.
If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.
This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.
It's very simple. Bengals could lose 3 games and finish with 7 losses. If Bengals hand Patriots their 8th loss, Bengals clinch a play-off spot. However I am sure the Bengals are thinking of winning the AFC North again and having a home game in the play-offs. Maybe even finishing ahead of Chiefs and Bills as the top seed.
It's also very possible that all 4 AFC North teams end up with good records as last year. Browns and Steelers are 6-8 and both could win a few more games. So Bengals winning a tough AFC NORTH again would be no small thing. The AFC North has had a lot of teams go to Super Bowl over the decades.
1968 Bengal Fan
Posts: 25,745
Threads: 647
Reputation:
241601
Joined: May 2015
Location: Jackson, OH
(12-19-2022, 01:17 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I also believe if we tie the Patriots will tie
The Patriots don't like ties much. If were approaching the end of regulation with the score tied, Logan Wilson should be on the lookout for a free gift.
Volson is meh, but I like him, and he has far exceeded my expectations
-Frank Booth 1/9/23
1
Posts: 3,491
Threads: 33
Reputation:
17716
Joined: May 2015
Jags are playing really well right now, so I could very easily see us being in before Christmas Eve.
Posts: 16,395
Threads: 151
Reputation:
61561
Joined: May 2015
At this point its probly more productive to look at #1 seed clinching scenarios
Posts: 1,117
Threads: 44
Reputation:
5880
Joined: Mar 2017
(12-19-2022, 09:52 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: At this point its probly more productive to look at #1 seed clinching scenarios
So...
Bengals win out.
Chiefs lose one game
GG?
Literally all it takes
1
Posts: 16,395
Threads: 151
Reputation:
61561
Joined: May 2015
(12-19-2022, 10:08 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: So...
Bengals win out.
Chiefs lose one game
GG?
Literally all it takes
this more complicated than bengals making the playoffs lol
Posts: 8,107
Threads: 130
Reputation:
53190
Joined: May 2015
Location: Cincinnati
(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:
The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos
So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.
If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.
This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.
I just plugged this scenario into the playoff simulator and it still has us as the 7th seed over the Jets because we beat them in our head to head.
I think we've already clinched a playoff spot. I can't come up with a scenario in which we don't make it in.
|