Playoff Clinching Scenarios

[Johnny Cupcakes]

I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:

The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos

So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.

If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.

This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.

[Bengalbug]

(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:

The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos

So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.

If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.

This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.

Yea, they are beyond 99%. I don’t think the team is happy with that, which is a good thing.

[Murdock2420]

(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:

The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos

So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.

If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.

This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.

They play each other Saturday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.

[*bfine32*]

(12-19-2022, 01:15 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: They play each other Sunday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.

I also believe if we tie the Patriots will tie

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(12-19-2022, 01:15 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: They play each other Sunday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.

Derp. You’re right.

But still…either of those things gets the Bengals in.

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(12-19-2022, 01:17 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I also believe if we tie the Patriots will tie

…

Which would also get us in.

[*Go Cards*]

Don't see the Jets or Patriots going 3-0, but could see the Chargers doing so.

But confident the Bengals are going to win the North so it matters not anyway.

[Roland]

(12-19-2022, 01:15 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: They play each other Sunday so if the Bengals win the Patriots will have lost.

Saturday, really.   Hopefully Santa delivers us a win on Christmas Eve.

[puddycat]

I must be missing something because:
The Bengals have the tie-breakers against Jets and Dolphins.
Jets can't get more than 10 wins. Bengals have tiebreaker.
Dolphins have to play NE, so either 1) NE wins and we have tiebreaker over Dolphins OR 2) Dolphins win and NE can't get to 10 wins.
So only one wild card team from the West could be better than the Bengals.
Baltimore can be ignored for WC if they win the division.
Only the Chargers from the West could be a higher ranked wild card.

My conclusion: Only the Dolphins OR the Patriots and the Chargers can get to 11 wins (Dolphins) or to 10 wins with the tie-breaker. I think we're already in.

[cinci4life]

We got tiebreaker on the Jets so they don't matter. New England is the only reason we haven't clinched yet.

[*bfine32*]

(12-19-2022, 01:33 AM)puddycat Wrote: I must be missing something because:
The Bengals have the tie-breakers against Jets and Dolphins.
Jets can't get more than 10 wins.  Bengals have tiebreaker.
Dolphins have to play NE, so either 1) NE wins and we have tiebreaker over Dolphins OR 2) Dolphins win and NE can't get to 10 wins.
So only one wild card team from the West could be better than the Bengals.
Baltimore can be ignored for WC if they win the division.
Only the Chargers from the West could be a higher ranked wild card.

My conclusion: Only the Dolphins OR the Patriots and the Chargers can get to 11 wins (Dolphins) or to 10 wins with the tie-breaker.  I think we're already in.

But what if the Bengals and the Pats both win this week?

[Bengalbug]

(12-19-2022, 01:36 AM)bfine32 Wrote: But what if the Bengals and the Pats both win this week?

Cant be done.

[BengalYankee]

(12-19-2022, 01:33 AM)puddycat Wrote: I must be missing something because:
The Bengals have the tie-breakers against Jets and Dolphins.
Jets can't get more than 10 wins.  Bengals have tiebreaker.
Dolphins have to play NE, so either 1) NE wins and we have tiebreaker over Dolphins OR 2) Dolphins win and NE can't get to 10 wins.
So only one wild card team from the West could be better than the Bengals.
Baltimore can be ignored for WC if they win the division.
Only the Chargers from the West could be a higher ranked wild card.

My conclusion: Only the Dolphins OR the Patriots and the Chargers can get to 11 wins (Dolphins) or to 10 wins with the tie-breaker.  I think we're already in.

You are missing the conference record. 
The below can still happen.

Regular             Conference
LA     11 - 6        8-4
MIA   10 - 7        8-4
NE     10 - 7        7-5
Jets    10 - 7       7 -5
Cincy 10 -7         6-6
  

[kevin]

(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:

The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos

So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.

If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.

This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.

It's very simple. Bengals could lose 3 games and finish with 7 losses.   If Bengals hand Patriots their 8th loss,  Bengals clinch a play-off spot.   However I am sure the Bengals are thinking of winning the AFC North again and having a home game in the play-offs.  Maybe even finishing ahead of Chiefs and Bills as the top seed.  

It's also very possible that all 4 AFC North teams end up with good records as last year.  Browns and Steelers are 6-8 and both could win a few more games.  So Bengals winning a tough AFC NORTH again would be no small thing.  The AFC North has had a lot of teams go to Super Bowl over the decades. 

[SunsetBengal]

(12-19-2022, 01:17 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I also believe if we tie the Patriots will tie

The Patriots don't like ties much.  If were approaching the end of regulation with the score tied, Logan Wilson should be on the lookout for a free gift.

[Rubekahn29]

Jags are playing really well right now, so I could very easily see us being in before Christmas Eve.

[XenoMorph]

At this point its probly more productive to look at #1 seed clinching scenarios

[WVUHomer]

(12-19-2022, 09:52 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: At this point its probly more productive to look at #1 seed clinching scenarios

So...

Bengals win out.
Chiefs lose one game
GG?

Literally all it takes

[XenoMorph]

(12-19-2022, 10:08 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: So...

Bengals win out.
Chiefs lose one game
GG?

Literally all it takes

this more complicated than bengals making the playoffs lol

[CJD]

(12-19-2022, 01:07 AM)Johnny Cupcakes Wrote: I haven’t seen this made official anywhere yet, BUT, the Bengals are almost a lock to make the playoffs at this point. It looks like the only way that we don’t see them in is if the following things happen:

The Bengals go 0-3
The Patriots go 3-0
The Jets go 3-0
The Chargers go 2-1, with the one loss coming against the Colts OR Broncos

So we could be in as soon as Thursday, if the Jags beat the Jets.

If the Jets win, then the Bengals will still get in on Sunday with a win OR a Patriots loss.

This is what I’ve come up with based on ducking around with the playoff simulator for an hour or so. I can’t find any other way that we miss it. If anyone else does, please post it.

I just plugged this scenario into the playoff simulator and it still has us as the 7th seed over the Jets because we beat them in our head to head.

I think we've already clinched a playoff spot. I can't come up with a scenario in which we don't make it in.