2023 RB Draft Prospects Group Assessment

[TecmoBengals]

I want Burrow handing off to this guy:



I want to see him rack up the yards and then when the defense tries to shut him down, Burrow finds Chase.

I predict he ends up going to the Bills and gets OROY award. I want him on the Bengals. I'd rather he get drafted and instantly start than go with another project who runs out of bounds on special teams plays.

[casear2727]

(02-16-2023, 07:48 AM)Rotobeast Wrote: Do you think Spears will be there when we pick in the 6th ?

Wouldn't a smaller target be harder to set your sights on and need a smaller hole to get up field ? He is amazing at catching the ball, too. I wouldn't have considered him either, until I watched his highlights.

I'd be willing to take a shot on Spears though, as well.


Sent from my SM-S515DL using Tapatalk

As you know, every player in the draft is going to have some great highlights.  Dante Hall, one of the greatest small guys ever was 5'8 but pushing 190.  he was only effective for 5 years.  I think the speed disparity from college to pro is just too much and at 5'6 and slight, it wouldn't be sustainable.

I do not see any way Spears is available at the end of the 6th round.  He can be electrifying in the open field and has 10 inch hands.  Senior week helped him tremendously and if he runs that 4.4 at the combine he will move up the boards pretty quick.

The combine will dictate draft placement for so many players.

If Tucker and McIntosh dont improve on those over 4.5 times will it impact them?

One of my favorite guys is Achane, he is Spears on steroids, will he run another 4.2?  Watch his highlights and imagine Joe throwing him the ball in space.  He is only 5-9 (185) but I doubt he drops very far.

If Roschon Johnson really runs a 4.3 at 6-2, 225 does he go from 6th to 3rd round?


Some other guys that we could use to increase the electricity on offense are WR's Mims, Parker Washington and UC's Tyler Scott (4.2) these are all potential Boyd replacements in 2024 but can provide speed and all can be returners.

I know you didnt ask about WRs but if we do not take a slot guy this draft, I have a theory that the plan could be to move Chase to the slot permanently next season and us picking up another tall speedster; X Hutchinson, AT Perry, Mingo, etc.

One big WR we can get late is Jadon Haselwood, 6-3, 4.4, guy is a total bully on DBs going for the ball but he also is the best blocking WR in the draft.  Dude registers pancakes weekly in both run and pass plays. 2 other late tall/fast guys are WRs from Princeton and BYU.

[casear2727]

(02-16-2023, 10:05 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I want Burrow handing off to this guy:



I want to see him rack up the yards and then when the defense tries to shut him down, Burrow finds Chase.

I predict he ends up going to the Bills and gets OROY award. I want him on the Bengals. I'd rather he get drafted and instantly start than go with another project who runs out of bounds on special teams plays.

I'd rather draft Darnell Wright #1 at RT.  I would be very happy with Bijon's backup, Roschon a little later. Evans, Bigsby and possibly Gray would all do well in our offense, IMO.  KC won the SB with a 7th Rd RB...  Bijon is excellent but we have an emergency need and most likely no plug-n-play options at 60.

[casear2727]

(02-07-2023, 02:18 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Robinson is about the only guy I'd want to give up a 1st rounder for at RB. Dude is a stud.
With that said, we're seeing guys come into the league and contribute well as rookies and they're being taken later than Rd 1 or Rd 2 even.
Look at Dameon Pierce, who was a 4th rounder last year. Dude put up nearly 1000 yards at 4.3 YPC in just 13 games.


I'm with you on looking at the trenches for the 1st round this year, but I do see the appeal to have that 5th year option so you're having one more year on the rookie contract. It's a substantial increase in that 5th year, but it's not as big of a hit as signing an expensive veteran.

KC winning the SB with a 7th Rounder puts RB in today's game into perspective.

[Rotobeast]

(02-16-2023, 10:16 AM)casear2727 Wrote: I know you didnt ask about WRs but if we do not take a slot guy this draft, I have a theory that the plan could be to move Chase to the slot permanently next season and us picking up another tall speedster; X Hutchinson, AT Perry, Mingo, etc.

I'm secretly hoping Zay Flowers drops to us, in the first.
I'm OT all the way in the first, but you cannot pass on that kind of talent to replace Boyd on the cheap.

[WVUHomer]

Another prospect to discuss:

Isreal Abanikanda Pitt

5'11" 215 lbs. Put up over 1600 all purpose yards (was their KO Return so adds that over Williams. Could be a Mixon replacement in the 5th if we part ways and don't grab Spears

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Apologies for not being on the ball with this. I needed some time off after KC.

Incoming shortly.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, general off-season stuff first. Cap situation. FA situation.

I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 8.
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Adomitis (Restricted), Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

With 41 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,145,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $182,764,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,497,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,733,599 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks.

And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).


II. Looming Cap Issues

And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.

2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa

Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways before the FA year if the salary is high, but the perfromance & Dead Cap number is low.

It certainly behooves us to line up possible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Alright, now onto the RB specific stuff.

Position Group #6: Running Back

I. 2022 Roster Status:
Currently on 53 = 4
Currently on IR = 1
Currently on PS = 0
---------------
Current starter: Mixon
Rostered reserves: Perine, T. Williams, Evans
Rostered versatility: T. Williams & Evans (KO returns)
Injured/PUP: Holyfield (from PS)
Practice Squad: None
------------

II. 2023 Roster Status:

A. Signed = 2. Cap Hit; Dead Cap; FA Year/Type

1. J. Mixon (RB#1): $12,761,754; $5,500,000; 2024 TO/'25 UFA
2. C. Evans (RB#4/KR#2): $983,222; $86,444; 2025 UFA
--------------

B. Unsigned = 2. 2022 Cap Hit; FA Type

1. S. Perine (RB#2): $1,850,000; UFA
2. T. Williams (RB#3/KR#1): $965,000; UFA
---------
3. E. Holyfield (PS, IR): UFA

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Analysis.

Mixon is perfectly fine as a starter, but overpaid given the fact that it makes no sense to pay a RB $12 mil a year when the OL sucks. Particularly one who has to sit 3rd down a lot because blitz pickup is weak. Off the field stuff is not helping. We coukd save over $7 mil (minus what we pay a replacement) if we move on.

But that is tricky, given that Perine is a FA. I want him back, but if we pay him like a starter he needs more money. Beyond Robinson, guys like Gibbs and Achane, while explosive, may have size/durability issues as a lead back. So if we move on from Mixon, he may need to start. Not sure I like him as RB#1 as much ss RB#2.

Evans is signed for cheap and has looked explosive at times. But he also lost the RB#3 & KR job to T. Williams, who looked solid in both roles and is sturdier.

Holyfield was on the PS and got hurt early on.
------------

Draft:

I firmly believe we need another weapon. None of our reserve WRs can create separation. Hurst is a FA. None of our reserve TEs are a threat catching the ball. But there are 3 (maybe 4 if you like Flowers) threat quality WRs worthy of a Rd1 pick. Maybe 2 TEs (Mayer, Kincaid). They could all be gone by the time we pick. Tillman at WR is intriguing. Washington more of a blocker at TE right now. Kraft and Musgrave serious Rd1 reaches.

But a late 1st round RB could make a lot of sense. And save us some cap. Mixon is signed, though. We don't NEED to let him go unless we want to use that $ in FA (retain or upgrade). But we better have Perine in hand, first.

Achane & Charbonnet could be around later. Scatback amd bruiser. I like Brown out of Illinois. And we don'toften go this way, but a FB (Hunter Luepke) or H-back type who could also play TE (Josh Whyle as TE/H-back) later on is appealing to me.

The fact that FA is first helps us at RB. If we fail to re-sign Perine and/or want to move on from Mixon, we need to do something in the draft. But we could do something AND keep Mixon, particularly if the pick is a scatback type. We could stand pat & upgrade Evans. Or go for a bruiser if Perine gets away. I am all for bringing back T. Williams to be a reserve and KR guy.

First order of business for me is signing Perine to a reasonable deal. If he gets away, then I try to re-sign Williams & replacing Mixon gets less likely and drafting a RB more so.

If we land Perine, then I also try & keep Williams, and if something happens on draft day, I let Mixon or Evans go. Not letting Mixin go unless I get a real playmaker.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

OK, Cal Adomitis has been inked to a 1 year deal and will be the long snapper again. This brings us to 42 guys signed. His signing to a $870k deal does not move the needle much/at all in terms of cap. Somebody in that slot is gonna make something, and $870k is as cheap as it gets.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cal-adomitis-77611/



-------------

I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 7
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

[casear2727]

(02-21-2023, 09:18 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Analysis.

Mixon is perfectly fine as a starter, but overpaid given the fact that it makes no sense to pay a RB $12 mil a year when the OL sucks. Particularly one who has to sit 3rd down a lot because blitz pickup is weak. Off the field stuff is not helping. We coukd save over $7 mil (minus what we pay a replacement) if we move on.

But that is tricky, given that Perine is a FA. I want him back, but if we pay him like a starter he needs more money. Beyond Robinson, guys like Gibbs and Achane, while explosive, may have size/durability issues as a lead back. So if we move on from Mixon, he may need to start. Not sure I like him as RB#1 as much ss RB#2.

Evans is signed for cheap and has looked explosive at times. But he also lost the RB#3 & KR job to T. Williams, who looked solid in both roles and is sturdier.

Holyfield was on the PS and got hurt early on.
------------

Draft:

I firmly believe we need another weapon. None of our reserve WRs can create separation. Hurst is a FA. None of our reserve TEs are a threat catching the ball. But there are 3 (maybe 4 if you like Flowers) threat quality WRs worthy of a Rd1 pick. Maybe 2 TEs (Mayer, Kincaid). They could all be gone by the time we pick. Tillman at WR is intriguing. Washington more of a blocker at TE right now. Kraft and Musgrave serious Rd1 reaches.

But a late 1st round RB could make a lot of sense. And save us some cap. Mixon is signed, though. We don't NEED to let him go unless we want to use that $ in FA (retain or upgrade). But we better have Perine in hand, first.

Achane & Charbonnet could be around later. Scatback amd bruiser. I like Brown out of Illinois. And we don'toften go this way, but a FB (Hunter Luepke) or H-back type who could also play TE (Josh Whyle as TE/H-back) later on is appealing to me.

The fact that FA is first helps us at RB. If we fail to re-sign Perine and/or want to move on from Mixon, we need to do something in the draft. But we could do something AND keep Mixon, particularly if the pick is a scatback type. We could stand pat & upgrade Evans. Or go for a bruiser if Perine gets away. I am all for bringing back T. Williams to be a reserve and KR guy.

First order of business for me is signing Perine to a reasonable deal. If he gets away, then I try to re-sign Williams & replacing Mixon gets less likely and drafting a RB more so.

If we land Perine, then I also try & keep Williams, and if something happens on draft day, I let Mixon or Evans go. Not letting Mixin go unless I get a real playmaker.

I like the combo play at RB, especially with Achane, along with a late round bruiser like Rodriguez at KY, they would be a good 1-2 punch, and affordable.

[casear2727]

(02-23-2023, 03:09 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: OK, Cal Adomitis has been inked to a 1 year deal and will be the long snapper again. This brings us to 42 guys signed. His signing to a $870k deal does not move the needle much/at all in terms of cap. Somebody in that slot is gonna make something, and $870k is as cheap as it gets.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cal-adomitis-77611/



-------------

I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation

# of Starters who are FA = 7
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)

# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.

So... does Clark Harris sign with another team or start his porn star career?

[DYT_Bengal]

The RB out of Marshall was a former 5-star (Laborn), had a very good season.

[Bengalholic]

2022 pass blocking grades for this years RB class, incuding the number of attempts.


Travis Dye                   68.4        73
Roschon Johnson         67.4        38
Chase Brown               65.1       106 
DeWayne McBride        64.4        79
Sean Tucker                 64.2        29

Chris Rodriguez           59.9         30
Bijan Robinson            59.0         60
Tank Bigsby                58.9         31
Tajae Spears               53.9         71  

Kendre Miller                43.3        35
Izzy Abanikanda           37.7         61
Mohaned Ibraham        33.1        46
Zach Charbonet            32.9        25
Zach Evans                  32.9        19

Devon Achane              27.7        67
Eric Gray                     27.5         43
Kenny McIntosh           26.6         22
Evan Hull                     23.7        42
Jahmyr Gibbs               21.0        32
Keaton Mitchell             17.4        45

[*psychdoctor*]

(03-06-2023, 12:05 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: 2022 pass blocking grades for this years RB class, incuding the number of attempts.


Travis Dye                   68.4        73
Roschon Johnson         67.4        38
Chase Brown               65.1       106 
DeWayne McBride        64.4        79
Sean Tucker                 64.2        29

Chris Rodriguez           59.9         30
Bijan Robinson            59.0         60
Tank Bigsby                58.9         31
Tajae Spears               53.9         71  

Kendre Miller                43.3        35
Izzy Abanikanda           37.7         61
Mohaned Ibraham        33.1        46
Zach Charbonet            32.9        25
Zach Evans                  32.9        19

Devon Achane              27.7        67
Eric Gray                     27.5         43
Kenny McIntosh           26.6         22
Evan Hull                     23.7        42
Jahmyr Gibbs               21.0        32
Keaton Mitchell             17.4        45

Johnson would be a great fit I feel with the Bengals.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-07-2023, 12:50 AM)WhodeyRay Wrote: Big fan of Keandre Miller. Guy hits the hole hard and is quick as lightning. One hell of a pass protector as well.

What school is Miller from? When you said hell of a pass protector, that is what I want. Everything else the back brings is gravy.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-06-2023, 03:56 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: Johnson would be a great fit I feel with the Bengals.  

Yes, Roschon Johnson is the RB I like after Bijan his teammate. Pass protector and talented as it gets.

[*psychdoctor*]

A RB to keep your eye on is Chase Brown. I know some are thinking Bigsby for Bengals. I don't think he would work for what they need.

[Bengalholic]

(03-07-2023, 05:11 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: A RB to keep your eye on is Chase Brown.  I know some are thinking Bigsby for Bengals.  I don't think he would work for what they need.

Yeah, I mentioned Brown early on. Love watching him play. All he does is produce, and he's prolific in pass protection.