Hunter Greene still leading team in strikeouts

[*ochocincos*]

Hunter Greene only has 73.1 innings pitched but sitting at 100 strikeouts.

As it stands, Greene is 3rd in IP behind Ashcraft (105 IP) and Weaver (86 IP).
Abbott, Lively, and Williamson all have between 60 and 70 IP, so really just a couple starts away from Greene, innings-wise.

What blows my mind is how Greene is still 24 strikeouts ahead of the next pitcher, Ashcraft.
Ashcraft has over 30 innings pitched more.
Weaver, Abbott, and Lively are in the 60's for strikeouts. They average ~1 strikeout an inning.

Just goes to show how dominant Greene has been when it comes to punching out guys.

Personally, I look forward to having him back in late August (hopefully).

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

While I like Ashcraft, I get a little confused about one thing.

I never knew that you had to learn how to throw a fastball.

He throws three pitches: a cutter, a slider and a sinker. He does not throw a two seam or a four seam fastball, he only throws cutters and sinkers as a fastball substitute. He threw 12 changeups as a rookie last year(all 12 were to lefties) but none this year.

Part of Corbin Burnes mastery is sneaking in the fastball when the hitter is looking for his awesome cutter.

How in the #### do you get to the big leagues and not be able to throw a fastball?

Does not compute . . . I are cunfyoozed.

[CJD]

(07-31-2023, 06:48 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: While I like Ashcraft, I get a little confused about one thing.

I never knew that you had to learn how to throw a fastball.

He throws three pitches: a cutter, a slider and a sinker. He does not throw a two seam or a four seam fastball, he only throws cutters and sinkers as a fastball substitute. He threw 12 changeups as a rookie last year(all 12 were to lefties) but none this year.

Part of Corbin Burnes mastery is sneaking in the fastball when the hitter is looking for his awesome cutter.

How in the #### do you get to the big leagues and not be able to throw a fastball?

Does not compute . . . I are cunfyoozed.

Yep, Ashcraft is a very strange case. Cincinnati.com actually wrote a story about Ashcraft's inability to throw a straight fastball
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2022/06/12/cincinnati-reds-pitcher-graham-ashcraft-diamond-rough/7582478001/

Quote:Ashcraft’s fastball was approaching 100 mph, but he couldn’t throw the ball straight. So the Reds then-minor league assistant pitching coordinator Eric Jagers, who’s now the Reds’ big league assistant pitching coach, helped protect the rest of the minor league pitchers by playing catch with Ashcraft.  

At first, Jagers focused on straightening out Ashcraft’s fastball. While playing catch, one pitch would cut to Jagers’ left and another would cut the other way. Whatever Ashcraft tried, his fastball was all over the place.


Then, Jagers had a breakthrough when he framed the challenge in a different way.
“Is this a problem, or is it just really unique?” Jagers thought. “Can it be consistent? Can we own the cut? Can you harness that and be consistent? That’s what we were after.”

And now, that’s who Ashcraft is. The rookie has a 1.14 ERA through four starts in the Reds rotation, and he still isn’t throwing a straight fastball. Over the last three years with the Reds, Ashcraft polished a 100 mph cutter that can move as much as some pitchers’ sliders. And he developed a sinker that cuts in the opposite direction.

In essence, he was able to throw 100 mph, but he was unable to not put a spin on it. So, instead of trying to teach him how to throw a fastball straight, the pitching coaches just decided to teach him how to harness that natural curve on his fastball, which eventually became his cutter and his sinker.

It's an interesting story, but it truly is bizarre that he is incapable of throwing a fast ball with no curve to it.

[CJD]

(07-31-2023, 03:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hunter Greene only has 73.1 innings pitched but sitting at 100 strikeouts.

As it stands, Greene is 3rd in IP behind Ashcraft (105 IP) and Weaver (86 IP).
Abbott, Lively, and Williamson all have between 60 and 70 IP, so really just a couple starts away from Greene, innings-wise.

What blows my mind is how Greene is still 24 strikeouts ahead of the next pitcher, Ashcraft.
Ashcraft has over 30 innings pitched more.
Weaver, Abbott, and Lively are in the 60's for strikeouts. They average ~1 strikeout an inning.

Just goes to show how dominant Greene has been when it comes to punching out guys.

Personally, I look forward to having him back in late August (hopefully).

To be fair, 12.3 K/9 is an absurd strikeout rate. It would be 2nd in the majors if he qualified. The only starting pitcher with more K/9 is Spencer Strider at 14.6.

It makes sense why Hunter was able to stay ahead of guys like Ashcraft, who pitch to contact rather than try to blow their opponents away, and Weaver who is just a bad pitcher. Other starters on our team are either young and have limited innings because they started in the minors (Abbott and Williamson), or have dealt with injuries (Lodolo and Lively).

If Lodolo was able to start as many games as Hunter, he'd probably have about as many strikeouts as well. He also had 12.3 K/9, granted in only 7 starts.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-31-2023, 03:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Hunter Greene only has 73.1 innings pitched but sitting at 100 strikeouts.

As it stands, Greene is 3rd in IP behind Ashcraft (105 IP) and Weaver (86 IP).
Abbott, Lively, and Williamson all have between 60 and 70 IP, so really just a couple starts away from Greene, innings-wise.

What blows my mind is how Greene is still 24 strikeouts ahead of the next pitcher, Ashcraft.
Ashcraft has over 30 innings pitched more.
Weaver, Abbott, and Lively are in the 60's for strikeouts. They average ~1 strikeout an inning.

Just goes to show how dominant Greene has been when it comes to punching out guys.

Personally, I look forward to having him back in late August (hopefully).

The Velocity/Strikeout era has been a disaster for MLB pitching. Hunter Greene is averaging 5.1 innings per start and has a 1.350 WHIP. He averages 18.5 pitches per 3 outs.

All the focus on velocity in strikeouts in today's game has ignored things like simply getting guys out quickly and easily so you can keep your pitch count low, throw more innings, and not blow out your arm. 

It's why guys like DeGrom is having his 3rd TJ surgery and probably ended his career, Strasburg is put together with elmer's glue, and Syndergaard burned out before he could ever really get started.

Greene's fastball averages 98.4mph this year, but has a weighted value of -3.4 with only his slider out of his trio of fastball/slider/changeup being a plus pitch this year. Throwing less hard while aiming for better location and movement would produce better results and possibly be less likely to have him keep going on the IL, too.

A soft ground ball is almost as good, or even better if you have someone on first, than a strikeout. It can only take 1 pitch, and you don't need to blow out your arm/shoulder/etc to get it. Cueto was a master of that. 6 year span where he had only 7.6 K/9, but a 2.73 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, and 16 complete games/7 shutouts plus 2 more complete games in the postseason including one in the World Series... and it wasn't so long ago that it isn't still basically the same game played today.



/angry old man yelling at the clouds

[CJD]

(07-31-2023, 08:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Velocity/Strikeout era has been a disaster for MLB pitching. Hunter Greene is averaging 5.1 innings per start and has a 1.350 WHIP. He averages 18.5 pitches per 3 outs.

All the focus on velocity in strikeouts in today's game has ignored things like simply getting guys out quickly and easily so you can keep your pitch count low, throw more innings, and not blow out your arm. 

It's why guys like DeGrom is having his 3rd TJ surgery and probably ended his career, Strasburg is put together with elmer's glue, and Syndergaard burned out before he could ever really get started.

Greene's fastball averages 98.4mph this year, but has a weighted value of -3.4 with only his slider out of his trio of fastball/slider/changeup being a plus pitch this year. Throwing less hard while aiming for better location and movement would produce better results and possibly be less likely to have him keep going on the IL, too.

A soft ground ball is almost as good, or even better if you have someone on first, than a strikeout. It can only take 1 pitch, and you don't need to blow out your arm/shoulder/etc to get it. Cueto was a master of that. 6 year span where he had only 7.6 K/9, but a 2.73 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, and 16 complete games/7 shutouts plus 2 more complete games in the postseason including one in the World Series... and it wasn't so long ago that it isn't still basically the same game played today.



/angry old man yelling at the clouds

The obsession with strikeouts is not a new phenomenon in baseball. It's not a coincidence that the most storied pitchers in the game's history are also among the strikeout leaders. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens (before the steroids accusations), Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Pedro Martinez, Clayton Kershaw etc. Strikeouts are basically synonymous with hall of famers. The top 25 career strikeout leaders are either in the hall of fame, currently active (and surefire hall of famers) or held out because they are not yet eligible (with one player who isn't in the hall of fame but his numbers indicate he should in Mickey Lolich. I wonder what the deal is there...). And then Curt Shilling and Roger Clemens are in there too, who are held out for non-baseball reasons. 

The big difference is that players nowadays are being strictly held to 100 pitches per outing in most cases, especially young players like Hunter Greene. I don't think they take him out because he couldn't go longer. I think they just want to ensure these guys don't blow out their arms. 

Plus, David Bell just seems to be a very safe manager when it comes to stuff like that anyway.

Hunter Greene's average innings per start is sitting at ~5 1/3 per start (5.23 IP/GS), which is below average for a starter across the majors, but not to an absurd degree (depending on how many non-start appearances the players catalogued have, somewhere around 108th out of 157). But, notably, Graham Ashcraft (5.25), Ben Lively (5.6), Brandon Williamson (4.94), Nick Lodolo (4.91), Andrew Abbott (5.9) and Luke Weaver (4.78) are all under 6 IP per game started. I think this is just the way Bell manages his staff more so than an indication that the league is going strikeout crazy.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-01-2023, 01:09 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The obsession with strikeouts is not a new phenomenon in baseball. It's not a coincidence that the most storied pitchers in the game's history are also among the strikeout leaders. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens (before the steroids accusations), Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Pedro Martinez, Clayton Kershaw etc. Strikeouts are basically synonymous with hall of famers. The top 25 career strikeout leaders are either in the hall of fame, currently active (and surefire hall of famers) or held out because they are not yet eligible (with one player who isn't in the hall of fame but his numbers indicate he should in Mickey Lolich. I wonder what the deal is there...). And then Curt Shilling and Roger Clemens are in there too, who are held out for non-baseball reasons. 

There is a huge difference between getting strikeouts, and FOCUSING on strikeouts. Even more so when you're relying on velocity to focus on strikeouts.

A big reason why all those Hall of Famers are littering the top-25 career strikeout list? Those guys stayed healthy to pitch a LOT of innings for a LOT of years. Nobody in the top 40 pitched less than 2,600 innings. That's 13 years of 200 innings. Guys throwing harder and harder resulting in shorter outings and more injuries will never be able to accumulate enough to be anywhere near the top-25 list before their arm stops working. (I guess Gerrit Cole might have a chance, but if he does it will be largely from the huge boost in Ks he got while cheating.)

Fangraphs only has velocity going back to 2002, but depending on the year in their career, their fastball has largely averaged around...
Scherzer: 93-94
Verlander: 92-95
Kershaw: 90-93


I guarantee you all of those guys could have thrown harder if they wanted to, but in order to do so they couldn't throw as many pitches, couldn't go as many innings, would sacrifice some control that would lead to more walks, and probably get hurt more leading to shorter careers.

Much like how I don't see any run-heavy QB thriving into their mid-30s, I don't think we're ever going to see the 98-100mph starters have long or healthy careers. You see a guy who can hit 100, and you just know it's an eventuality that they're going to have at least one TJ among other problems. 

Human bodies just aren't designed for that kind of punishment, and you'd be much better off with a sustainable low-90s with movement that you can actually locate, mixed with some offspeed pitches will let you throw 100-110 pitches a start, 180-220 innings a year, for 15 years.

[Earendil]

When I was 13 years old, I could throw 75 MPH. While that was on the high end for my age, I destroyed my shoulder. Now that I'm pushing 50, I wish I could go back in time and tell my younger self "Dial it back a bit, you aren't going to do this professionally and it's not worth the pain later in life."

We aren't even going to talk about how I dislocated my left shoulder last spring during batting practice. On the plus side, I could still hit about 300ft.

[*ochocincos*]

Yep the high velocity to get the strikeouts is worrisome, and I'm sure we'd all love instead if Greene was someone who was pitching in the 95-97 range but better able to paint the corners.
With that said, strikeouts are always good to happen/see.
Greene may need to learn to dial it down and further develop his pitching arsenal for longevity-sake, but he's only 23 years old.

Strasburg pitched just about as fast, and he still had a 13-year MLB career.
For the first 10 years of that career, he had under a 4.00 ERA every season, making the All-Star team 3 times.
I'm sure we'd welcome a Strasburg-like career for Greene.

[CJD]

(08-01-2023, 09:30 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: There is a huge difference between getting strikeouts, and FOCUSING on strikeouts. Even more so when you're relying on velocity to focus on strikeouts.

A big reason why all those Hall of Famers are littering the top-25 career strikeout list? Those guys stayed healthy to pitch a LOT of innings for a LOT of years. Nobody in the top 40 pitched less than 2,600 innings. That's 13 years of 200 innings. Guys throwing harder and harder resulting in shorter outings and more injuries will never be able to accumulate enough to be anywhere near the top-25 list before their arm stops working. (I guess Gerrit Cole might have a chance, but if he does it will be largely from the huge boost in Ks he got while cheating.)

Fangraphs only has velocity going back to 2002, but depending on the year in their career, their fastball has largely averaged around...
Scherzer: 93-94
Verlander: 92-95
Kershaw: 90-93


I guarantee you all of those guys could have thrown harder if they wanted to, but in order to do so they couldn't throw as many pitches, couldn't go as many innings, would sacrifice some control that would lead to more walks, and probably get hurt more leading to shorter careers.

Much like how I don't see any run-heavy QB thriving into their mid-30s, I don't think we're ever going to see the 98-100mph starters have long or healthy careers. You see a guy who can hit 100, and you just know it's an eventuality that they're going to have at least one TJ among other problems. 

Human bodies just aren't designed for that kind of punishment, and you'd be much better off with a sustainable low-90s with movement that you can actually locate, mixed with some offspeed pitches will let you throw 100-110 pitches a start, 180-220 innings a year, for 15 years.

That's a fair point. With Greene, I remember during the 2017 draft, he was noted as a special prospect because his 100 mph fastball was considered "easy" or "little effort" and that it did not seem to show intense strain on his arm like many players who could also throw 95 to 100 mph.

I don't know if that was just pre-draft mumbo jumbo or if it was actually based on something, but the unfortunate state of Hunter Greene is that if he dropped his fastball speed down to 90 to 93, He'd probably be a below average pitcher. His fastball is his only plus pitch at the moment (despite the advanced statistics you listed for it, I think that's the general consensus among coaches, fans and scouts.)

I think the issue is the batters have gotten exponentially better over time. If you introduced a 100 mph flame thrower to the deadball era, I don't think those players would even be able to see it, let alone hit it. 

Even Aroldis Chapman, when he arrived in 2015, his 100 mph fastball was considered extremely unique. And he used it, along with his wipeout slider, to be one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.

Now, it seems every team has a 100 mph slinger haha.

When I first started watching baseball in 2006, Aaron Harang was our opening day starter (for 5 years, I believe) and, bless his heart, his fastball was lucky to reach 90. He was good enough to get players out but I sometimes wonder how he'd fair in today's MLB where the bare minimum requirement seems to be 93 or 94 mph.