2024 Starting Rotation - Is It Good Enough?

[*ochocincos*]

The rotation next year is looking to be (not necessarily in this order):
Hunter Greene
Graham Ashcraft
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brandon Williamson

Connor Phillips in the wings.

Is the current batch of pitchers good enough that the Reds don't need to try to bring in a good SP to round out their rotation?
Could they instead look to just boost their bullpen and maybe one more good, reliable hitter?

[*bengalfan74*]

On the other hand the pitching staff concerns me a bit.

Hunter Greene seems to be the real deal. I think we're good there. check

Graham Ashcraft, again he seems like he will be a good one. check

Nick Lodolo had a good season in 2022 and started off on fire this season. But I'd like to see him again before I give him a full check, so. half check

Andrew Abbott sure looks the part, but I'm hesitant to give him a full check just yet, so. half check

Brandon Williamson, umm, he's been pitching much better over last 5, 6 games. I suppose he could be a #5?

I guess what I'm trying to say is I still have one eyebrow up on pitching staff, because....

MLB is won and lost with pitching. Always has been, always will be. You can't have too much pitching. Perhaps the rest of this season will give us a better feel for what we have?

As of right now I wouldn't be opposed to picking up an upper tier starter this offseason.

[Goalpost]

Will be following Rhett Lowder who won't make it next year, but, not a stretch we could see him the following year.

[The D.O.Z.]

I think they need 2-3 guys beyond what they decide their 5-man rotation will be. Assuming Greene ® Abbott (L) Ashcraft ® Lodolo (L) and Williamson (L). Lively as the spot starter / long relief. That is a lefty-heavy rotation but they could alternate Lively in there occasionally I guess if they wanted. But they need to cover their asses incase of injury rather than depend on AAA call ups / guys who may not be ready. Especially if they intend to contend. Could really use a righty vet like Sonny Gray, who has had success here. Or look at a guy who has good career groundball rates.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(08-16-2023, 02:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The rotation next year is looking to be (not necessarily in this order):
Hunter Greene
Graham Ashcraft
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brandon Williamson

Connor Phillips in the wings.

Is the current batch of pitchers good enough that the Reds don't need to try to bring in a good SP to round out their rotation?
Could they instead look to just boost their bullpen and maybe one more good, reliable hitter?

This is most likely their projected 2024 rotation with the hopes of an intense Williamson/Phillips competition to push the other four.

Any free agent pitcher good enough to push the back end of the rotation is going to be overpriced for this team. Weaver was a couple of million bucks . . . GABP is not quite as hated by pitchers as much as Coors Field, but it is damn close. If they are to add to the rotation, it will have to be via trade. I'd expect at least two of India, Stephenson, Fairchild and Fraley thrown in with a couple of decent minor league prospects to get the starter that they want.

Addressing the bullpen may be their focus as far as pitching goes and there really are only two possible positions to look at in FA, LF and C because every other position has a pretty good starter.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-16-2023, 11:49 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: I think they need 2-3 guys beyond what they decide their 5-man rotation will be. Assuming Greene ® Abbott (L)  Ashcraft ® Lodolo (L) and Williamson (L). Lively as the spot starter / long relief. That is a lefty-heavy rotation but they could alternate Lively in there occasionally I guess if they wanted. But they need to cover their asses incase of injury rather than depend on AAA call ups / guys who may not be ready. Especially if they intend to contend. Could really use a righty vet like Sonny Gray, who has had success here. Or look at a guy who has good career groundball rates.

I wasn't even considering Lively because he's already 31 years old, so I thought he was some stopgap veteran.
Holy cow, he's still in Pre-Arb years!
Yea, he can be a long reliever and fill in if an injury.

I would love a good, savvy vet like Gray again, just to provide that insurance.
Then you could let Williamson and Phillips be long relievers unless/until an injury occurs.
They definitely have the leeway for the next 2-3 years to pay for someone like Gray before many of the other guys start looking for bigger deals.

[samhain]

They need a Bronson Arroyo/Wade Miley style inning eater. Someone who can be good more than he's bad and go deep into games. Preferably a veteran. A guy like that might help protect the pen from melting down from overuse like they are right now.

Also, I'd invest in another high end late inning guy. Someone to lock up a game in 7 innings like Milwaukee used to have with Williams and Hader.

These guys might not be "cheap" but they are going to be a lot more affordable than high end starters. With the FO being as concerned with money as they are, I think these are the best investments. High end starters are a huge crapshoot. Sheeling out big money to them is always a big risk for a team that identifies as broke such as the Reds.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-21-2023, 10:10 PM)samhain Wrote: They need a Bronson Arroyo/Wade Miley style inning eater.  Someone who can be good more than he's bad and go deep into games.  Preferably a veteran.  A guy like that might help protect the pen from melting down from overuse like they are right now.  

Also, I'd invest in another high end late inning guy.  Someone to lock up a game in 7 innings like Milwaukee used to have with Williams and Hader.  

These guys might not be "cheap" but they are going to be a lot more affordable than high end starters.  With the FO being as concerned with money as they are, I think these are the best investments.  High end starters are a huge crapshoot.  Sheeling out big money to them is always a big risk for a team that identifies as broke such as the Reds.

Agree with both. This was the goal the Reds had back with Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton.
It'd be nice to have a couple key holders for the 7th and 8th inning before Diaz were to come in.

For starter, I kind of agree Reds just need someone who can be somewhere 3rd to 5th in the rotation who can get guys out and be reliable to go 5-6 innings every game they pitch. They don't have to be a superstar.
Maybe someone like Brady Singer from KC, or bring Sonny Gray back. Gray's only going to be 34 next year, so he should have a couple more years left in him.
Singer would have to be traded for, but he's in Arb already, so the Royals might not want to pay him.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-16-2023, 02:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The rotation next year is looking to be (not necessarily in this order):
Hunter Greene
Graham Ashcraft
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brandon Williamson

Connor Phillips in the wings.

Is the current batch of pitchers good enough that the Reds don't need to try to bring in a good SP to round out their rotation?
Could they instead look to just boost their bullpen and maybe one more good, reliable hitter?

That's a lot of meh.

Hunter Greene: Career 99 OPS+
Graham Ashcraft: Career 93 OPS+
Andrew Abbott: Career 155 OPS+ (dropping quickly because of hitting the rookie wall, but still legit)
Nick Lodolo: Career 103 OPS+
Brandon Williamson: Career 103 OPS+

Connor Phillips: WHIP over 1.500 in AA and AAA

Abbott seems like he could be a guy, but other than him you have a bunch of #4/#5 types. You need at least 3 guys who you can look at and say "yes, I can put those three into a postseason series and have a good chance to win". They have 1 in Abbott, and the rest of them would be that 4th guy who you have in your postseason rotation mostly to give the other 3 guys the extra day of rest while hopefully keeping you in the game.

Plus the fact is they're probably going to need to have a 6 man rotation in 2024 because of workloads....

Greene has never thrown 135 innings in a season before.
Ashcraft is currently at a career high 134 innings right now.
Abbott absolutely hit a wall a couple starts ago and his ~140 innings pitched this year is by far his career high.
Lodolo threw a career high 116 innings last year and just 41.2 innings this year.
Williamson is at a career high 121.2 innings this year.

Even if we assume all of them stay healthy (big assumption) and only average 5 innings per start (would be a huge letdown) that's still 810 innings over 162 games, divided by 5 starters is 160 innings per pitcher. Obviously some napkin math, but even only expecting just 5 innings per start would crush a lot of these guys career highs. If we look at 6 innings per start instead it's a little over 194 innings each. So somewhere between 160-194, which would likely be an unreasonable increase in workload from one year to another. If you are expecting/hoping for a deep postseason run, that will add another 20-30 innings for 4 of them that they need to still be capable of being good for.

They need a 6th guy in the rotation to eat innings, and also one of those 4 non-Abbott guys needs to be replaced with someone proven legit so that we're only relying on 1 guy out of the pool of 4 to become a 15-20% above league average starter next year rather than 2 out of 4 which would be an unreasonable expectation.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-23-2023, 07:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's a lot of meh.

Hunter Greene: Career 99 OPS+
Graham Ashcraft: Career 93 OPS+
Andrew Abbott: Career 155 OPS+ (dropping quickly because of hitting the rookie wall, but still legit)
Nick Lodolo: Career 103 OPS+
Brandon Williamson: Career 103 OPS+

Connor Phillips: WHIP over 1.500 in AA and AAA

Abbott seems like he could be a guy, but other than him you have a bunch of #4/#5 types. You need at least 3 guys who you can look at and say "yes, I can put those three into a postseason series and have a good chance to win". They have 1 in Abbott, and the rest of them would be that 4th guy who you have in your postseason rotation mostly to give the other 3 guys the extra day of rest while hopefully keeping you in the game.

I don't know that I'd go that far? 
But I'm not as confident with our right now starting staff as many? Ashcraft I believe is gonna be a good #2 or 3 type guy. Abbott I believe is going to be decent, perhaps #3 type starter. But after that I'm just not sure?
What is Lodolo really? Is this injury bug gonna derail his career? When he comes back what will he be? Just really unsure.
Greene I just don't know? I'm hoping he gets it together, develops another pitch and so on. But like I said in another thread what has he really shown so far?
Williamson? #5 type perhaps? 
All in all I would feel much better if they get a true 15-20 game winner this offseason and perhaps more bullpen help? At a mininum

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2023, 07:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's a lot of meh.

Hunter Greene: Career 99 OPS+
Graham Ashcraft: Career 93 OPS+
Andrew Abbott: Career 155 OPS+ (dropping quickly because of hitting the rookie wall, but still legit)
Nick Lodolo: Career 103 OPS+
Brandon Williamson: Career 103 OPS+

Connor Phillips: WHIP over 1.500 in AA and AAA

Abbott seems like he could be a guy, but other than him you have a bunch of #4/#5 types. You need at least 3 guys who you can look at and say "yes, I can put those three into a postseason series and have a good chance to win". They have 1 in Abbott, and the rest of them would be that 4th guy who you have in your postseason rotation mostly to give the other 3 guys the extra day of rest while hopefully keeping you in the game.

Plus the fact is they're probably going to need to have a 6 man rotation in 2024 because of workloads....

Greene has never thrown 135 innings in a season before.
Ashcraft is currently at a career high 134 innings right now.
Abbott absolutely hit a wall a couple starts ago and his ~140 innings pitched this year is by far his career high.
Lodolo threw a career high 116 innings last year and just 41.2 innings this year.
Williamson is at a career high 121.2 innings this year.

Even if we assume all of them stay healthy (big assumption) and only average 5 innings per start (would be a huge letdown) that's still 810 innings over 162 games, divided by 5 starters is 160 innings per pitcher. Obviously some napkin math, but even only expecting just 5 innings per start would crush a lot of these guys career highs. If we look at 6 innings per start instead it's a little over 194 innings each. So somewhere between 160-194, which would likely be an unreasonable increase in workload from one year to another. If you are expecting/hoping for a deep postseason run, that will add another 20-30 innings for 4 of them that they need to still be capable of being good for.

They need a 6th guy in the rotation to eat innings, and also one of those 4 non-Abbott guys needs to be replaced with someone proven legit so that we're only relying on 1 guy out of the pool of 4 to become a 15-20% above league average starter next year rather than 2 out of 4 which would be an unreasonable expectation.

I hate to break it to you, but the Reds will never actually pay for a true bona fide ace.
You're looking at $25+ mill APY for a true ace SP.
If the Reds are going to have an ace, it will have to be someone who is brought in from the minors and plays here before hitting FA.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-24-2023, 09:39 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I hate to break it to you, but the Reds will never actually pay for a true bona fide ace.
You're looking at $25+ mill APY for a true ace SP.
If the Reds are going to have an ace, it will have to be someone who is brought in from the minors and plays here before hitting FA.

I hope you're wrong.

But my fear is you're right.

Look I don't claim to be any expert pitching guru. Have any inside info, ESP, or anything else. Just my gut instinct which very well could be wrong. Here's my take:

I believe Hunter Greene will be a good, not great starter. 10-12 game winner who also loses games he might not elsewhere giving up too many HR's in GABP. He'll have a bunch of K's and look like a Bonafide stud at times and get clobbered next time out.

I'll put Ashcraft and Abbott in a box together. I think/hope they're both very good middle of the pack starters. 12-15 game winners, #2, #3 types. Which is awesome !!

Williamson is I believe a #4/5 starter most likely. Which again would be great. 

Lodolo has flashed being good for sure but he scares me with this injury bug. And we have such a small sample size with him I'm just skeptical.

The bulk of the rest we've seen thus far this season would struggle to be regular starters on most any team. 

I know I've preached this ad nauseum, lol. But I strongly feel to have a true WS contender staff we need that final piece. That true ACE, 20 game winner, slide stopper, anchor of the staff.

We might tinker with success holding pat. (Which by the way) oldschool baseballers will tell you is the best place to be $$$ wise for ownership. But to really make it over the top they've got to open up piggy bank.

[The D.O.Z.]

Hunter Greene shoulda stayed a shortstop. Or they should have kept him in the minors until he developed an offspeed “out” pitch he can throw comfortably and consistently. Right now, in my opinion, HG is a glorified bullpen arm masquerading as a starting pitcher.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-24-2023, 09:39 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I hate to break it to you, but the Reds will never actually pay for a true bona fide ace.
You're looking at $25+ mill APY for a true ace SP.
If the Reds are going to have an ace, it will have to be someone who is brought in from the minors and plays here before hitting FA.

Don't need a true bonafide ace. Just need to add a legit proven #2-#3. An addition similar to when they added Sonny Gray or Mat Latos. Then need to hope for one of the other guys they have already to develop into one next year to be their third.

Then add a #4-#5 type that you can rely on to eat some innings (similar to the Tanner Roark addition) for a 6 man rotation.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-24-2023, 11:39 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't need a true bonafide ace. Just need to add a legit proven #2-#3. An addition similar to when they added Sonny Gray or Mat Latos. Then need to hope for one of the other guys they have already to develop into one next year to be their third.

Then add a #4-#5 type that you can rely on to eat some innings (similar to the Tanner Roark addition) for a 6 man rotation.

I would argue Andrew Abbott is pitching well enough to be a #2.
Ashcraft since the ASB has been pitching well enough to be a #2/3 as well.
Greene prior to his injury was pitching well enough to be a #1-3.

Are any of these guys of the caliber of someone like Castillo? No, I don't think so (yet).

But do I think they might be able to be good enough to pitch in a postseason series as long as the bats weren't super cold?
Probably.

If the Reds can get someone like a Sonny Gray for a reasonable price, I'd love it, and I've stated something along those lines across multiple threads the past few months.
The Reds will have enough they can spend for a guy around the $10-15 mill range for the next 2-3 years, which should be able to bring in a quality #2/3.

I just don't think we have a true ace on the big league roster or in the minors right now, so the Reds might have to do some trading if they really wanna find the next potential ace.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-24-2023, 10:59 AM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Hunter Greene shoulda stayed a shortstop. Or they should have kept him in the minors until he developed an offspeed “out” pitch he can throw comfortably and consistently. Right now, in my opinion, HG is a glorified bullpen arm masquerading as a starting pitcher.

Given Greene is only 24 years old, I think there's still time to try him as a SP for the next couple years before considering pushing him to the BP.
Prior to his injury, Greene allowed only 4+ runs three times across 14 starts.
In those 11 instances where he's allowed 3 runs or less, he's averaging 5.17 innings per start.

I know everyone wants a pitcher who always goes 6-7 innings a game, but 5-6 seems to becoming more of the norm nowadays.
And Greene is right in that 5-6 window.

With all that said, I was surprised to see him given that new contract when he hasn't really proven much yet.
I thought they would have gone another couple years before considering that.
Maybe they were so optimistic about him that they wanted to try to strike while the price was lower.

[The D.O.Z.]

(08-24-2023, 12:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Given Greene is only 24 years old, I think there's still time to try him as a SP for the next couple years before considering pushing him to the BP.
Prior to his injury, Greene allowed only 4+ runs three times across 14 starts.
In those 11 instances where he's allowed 3 runs or less, he's averaging 5.17 innings per start.

I know everyone wants a pitcher who always goes 6-7 innings a game, but 5-6 seems to becoming more of the norm nowadays.
And Greene is right in that 5-6 window.

With all that said, I was surprised to see him given that new contract when he hasn't really proven much yet.
I thought they would have gone another couple years before considering that.
Maybe they were so optimistic about him that they wanted to try to strike while the price was lower.

I don’t expect the guy to go 6+ consistently (yet. Which is what you typically want out of your supposed #1) until he can build TO that, but my issue w Greene is all the HR the guy gives up. The fact they brought him up without really, truly working on his change up and getting some consistent movement on that fastball in the minors and THEN paying him, albeit a bargain IF he pans out, all that money was flat out irresponsible of this front office. At this point, he is a one trick pony, and MLB hitters can catch up to a fastball. If they didn’t need innings out of him right now to relieve this pitching staff, he would be my long relief guy until he develops those non-fastball pitches.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-24-2023, 12:30 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: I don’t expect the guy to go 6+ consistently (yet. Which is what you typically want out of your supposed #1) until he can build TO that, but my issue w Greene is all the HR the guy gives up. The fact they brought him up without really, truly working on his change up and getting some consistent movement on that fastball in the minors and THEN paying him, albeit a bargain IF he pans out, all that money was flat out irresponsible of this front office. At this point, he is a one trick pony, and MLB hitters can catch up to a fastball. If they didn’t need innings out of him right now to relieve this pitching staff, he would be my long relief guy until he develops those non-fastball pitches.

I completely get wanting someone who doesn't have to rely on their fastball so much, but the fastball is what made him appealing.
He's going to use it more because it's so good.

He reminds me somewhat of Chapman, only he's able to pitch deeper into games.
Remember, Chapman was being talked about for a brief time as a potential starting option.
They gave up on that possibility quickly when they realized he can't go more than once through and order and was typically getting rocked after just 2-3 innings.

[The D.O.Z.]

(08-24-2023, 12:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I completely get wanting someone who doesn't have to rely on their fastball so much, but the fastball is what made him appealing.
He's going to use it more because it's so good.

He reminds me somewhat of Chapman, only he's able to pitch deeper into games.
Remember, Chapman was being talked about for a brief time as a potential starting option.
They gave up on that possibility quickly when they realized he can't go more than once through and order and was typically getting rocked after just 2-3 innings.

If memory serves me though, Chapman had a nice slider and change up he could throw to keep hitters off balance. He didn’t use them nearly as often as the fastball, but they were effective and it kept his fastball effective. Greene doesn’t have that, and he’s getting tattooed due to it, in my opinion.

Sort of side thought / question here but why aren’t we drafting, developing, and signing pitchers better suited for GABP? Instead of the high strikeout guys, why aren’t we looking for more “career groundball rate” guys? Why aren’t we working with players like Greene, to develop a sinker / downward movement on those high-spin-rate fastballs? Maybe we are, and I’m just not seeing the behind the scenes work?

[*ochocincos*]

(08-24-2023, 12:52 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: If memory serves me though, Chapman had a nice slider and change up he could throw to keep hitters off balance. He didn’t use them nearly as often as the fastball, but they were effective and it kept his fastball effective. Greene doesn’t have that, and he’s getting tattooed due to it, in my opinion.

Sort of side thought / question here but why aren’t we drafting, developing, and signing pitchers better suited for GABP? Instead of the high strikeout guys, why aren’t we looking for more “career groundball rate” guys? Why aren’t we working with players like Greene, to develop a sinker / downward movement on those high-spin-rate fastballs? Maybe we are, and I’m just not seeing the behind the scenes work?

Those pitchers are usually not the guys with the highest potential and thus aren't drafted super early in the 1st round, which is when the Reds had been drafting.

As for if/how much Greene is working on extra pitches, I would assume those aren't going to be attempted much in games until a pitcher feels confident in throwing them where/how they want consistently. But you have to really assume they are working on these things in practice between games to some extent at least. Although maybe that's not something during the season you get much chance to work on and have to wait until offseason.