2024 Starting Rotation - Is It Good Enough?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-24-2023, 12:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I would argue Andrew Abbott is pitching well enough to be a #2.
Ashcraft since the ASB has been pitching well enough to be a #2/3 as well.
Greene prior to his injury was pitching well enough to be a #1-3.

Are any of these guys of the caliber of someone like Castillo? No, I don't think so (yet).

But do I think they might be able to be good enough to pitch in a postseason series as long as the bats weren't super cold?
Probably.

If the Reds can get someone like a Sonny Gray for a reasonable price, I'd love it, and I've stated something along those lines across multiple threads the past few months.
The Reds will have enough they can spend for a guy around the $10-15 mill range for the next 2-3 years, which should be able to bring in a quality #2/3.

I just don't think we have a true ace on the big league roster or in the minors right now, so the Reds might have to do some trading if they really wanna find the next potential ace.

Yes, I said you need 3 #2 types and Abbott is one of the 3. One needs to come externally so you're only relying on 1 more to show up internally rather than 2.

Ashcraft had a good August last year too with a 2.33 ERA, but he then went right back to stinking allowing 16 earned runs over his final 3 starts/12 innings to finish with a 4.89 ERA on the year. He is at 4.84 ERA this year. It was a small sample size, but he has a 1.670 WHIP in AAA. He's having a good stretch here right now, but he has had a couple good stretches over his career so far. They all get averaged out with terrible pitching that ends up with him having an ERA just shy of 5. He has allowed 9.6 hits per 9 in his career, doesn't strike guys out, and walks too many.

Greene has never pitched well enough to be a #1-#2. Before he went on the IL he had a 3.93 ERA which is pretty good, but was averaging less than 5.1 innings per start. He has walked too many guys at every level other than Rookie ball, and it's only gotten worse at every level. 3.0 BB/9 in A, 3.1 BB/9 in AA, 3.6 BB/9 in AAA, 3.7 BB/9 in MLB. He also just simply can't be relied upon to stay healthy.

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2023 Braves top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Spencer Strider: 3.57 ERA / 1.080 WHIP (124 ERA+)
Bryce Elder: 3.39 ERA / 1.200 WHIP (131 ERA+)
Charlie Morton: 3.37 ERA / 1.384 WHIP (132 ERA+)
Max Fried: 2.83 ERA / 1.196 WHIP (157 ERA+)

2023 Brewers top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Corbin Burnes: 3.65 ERA / 1.076 WHIP (118 ERA+)
Freddy Peralta: 3.97 ERA / 1.182 WHIP (108 ERA+)
Wade Miley: 3.18 ERA / 1.175 WHIP (135 ERA+)
Adrian Houser: 4.28 ERA / 1.460 WHIP (101 ERA+)

2023 Reds top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Graham Ashcraft: 4.84 ERA / 1.381 WHIP  (95 ERA+)
Brandon Williamson: 4.47 ERA / 1.258 WHIP (103 ERA+)
Andrew Abbott: 3.16 ERA / 1.172 WHIP (146 ERA+)
Hunter Greene: 4.72 ERA / 1.467 WHIP (98 ERA+)


We're notably different than the Brewers, let alone the team we'll need to get past to go to a WS in the Braves.

When your team has the 28th best Starting Pitching ERA in baseball and 28th best Starting Pitching WHIP in baseball... you simply don't already have 3 guys who are #1s-#3s.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-24-2023, 12:52 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: If memory serves me though, Chapman had a nice slider and change up he could throw to keep hitters off balance. He didn’t use them nearly as often as the fastball, but they were effective and it kept his fastball effective. Greene doesn’t have that, and he’s getting tattooed due to it, in my opinion.

Sort of side thought / question here but why aren’t we drafting, developing, and signing pitchers better suited for GABP? Instead of the high strikeout guys, why aren’t we looking for more “career groundball rate” guys? Why aren’t we working with players like Greene, to develop a sinker / downward movement on those high-spin-rate fastballs? Maybe we are, and I’m just not seeing the behind the scenes work?

His 5th year (technically 4th year according to service time) of 2014 is when he started mixing in the change up. That still remains the year he had his highest strikeout rate of his career (17.7 K/9) and lowest hits allowed rate of his career (3.5 H/9).

Threw it for 2 years, then threw it half as much for 2 more years as the Yankees had him phase it out, which is weird because the 2 years he threw it at least 5% of the time he had a 1.80 ERA with a 1.008 WHIP and it was graded as a positive pitch.

The Yankees do some weird stuff like that, though. Like how they had Sonny Gray suddenly throwing a Cutter 20% of the time to terrible results when it was never really a pitch he threw much prior in his career.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-24-2023, 02:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yes, I said you need 3 #2 types and Abbott is one of the 3. One needs to come externally so you're only relying on 1 more to show up internally rather than 2.

Ashcraft had a good August last year too with a 2.33 ERA, but he then went right back to stinking allowing 16 earned runs over his final 3 starts/12 innings to finish with a 4.89 ERA on the year. He is at 4.84 ERA this year. It was a small sample size, but he has a 1.670 WHIP in AAA. He's having a good stretch here right now, but he has had a couple good stretches over his career so far. They all get averaged out with terrible pitching that ends up with him having an ERA just shy of 5. He has allowed 9.6 hits per 9 in his career, doesn't strike guys out, and walks too many.

Greene has never pitched well enough to be a #1-#2. Before he went on the IL he had a 3.93 ERA which is pretty good, but was averaging less than 5.1 innings per start. He has walked too many guys at every level other than Rookie ball, and it's only gotten worse at every level. 3.0 BB/9 in A, 3.1 BB/9 in AA, 3.6 BB/9 in AAA, 3.7 BB/9 in MLB. He also just simply can't be relied upon to stay healthy.

- - - - - 

2023 Braves top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Spencer Strider: 3.57 ERA / 1.080 WHIP (124 ERA+)
Bryce Elder: 3.39 ERA / 1.200 WHIP (131 ERA+)
Charlie Morton: 3.37 ERA / 1.384 WHIP (132 ERA+)
Max Fried: 2.83 ERA / 1.196 WHIP (157 ERA+)

2023 Brewers top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Corbin Burnes: 3.65 ERA / 1.076 WHIP (118 ERA+)
Freddy Peralta: 3.97 ERA / 1.182 WHIP (108 ERA+)
Wade Miley: 3.18 ERA / 1.175 WHIP (135 ERA+)
Adrian Houser: 4.28 ERA / 1.460 WHIP (101 ERA+)

2023 Reds top 4 starters currently on roster by IP
Graham Ashcraft: 4.84 ERA / 1.381 WHIP  (95 ERA+)
Brandon Williamson: 4.47 ERA / 1.258 WHIP (103 ERA+)
Andrew Abbott: 3.16 ERA / 1.172 WHIP (146 ERA+)
Hunter Greene: 4.72 ERA / 1.467 WHIP (98 ERA+)


We're notably different than the Brewers, let alone the team we'll need to get past to go to a WS in the Braves.

When your team has the 28th best Starting Pitching ERA in baseball and 28th best Starting Pitching WHIP in baseball... you simply don't already have 3 guys who are #1s-#3s.

Greene's ERA had elevated pretty big since he's come back from injury, and Ashcraft has been a different pitcher since coming back from his injury.

It's safe to say Greene wasn't ready to come back when he did. But they needed bodies, so I get it.

Ashcraft has brought his ERA down substantially since coming back from his injury in June.
After his first game back from the IL where he only pitched 4 innings and allowed 6 runs, he's allowed 3 runs or less every single outing. He's also pitched just under 7 innings average a start in that window.

We need Greene to come around, obviously.
But if Ashcraft next year pitches like he's been doing since late June and Abbott continues his performance, the Reds have a good #2 and #3 in those guys.
Williamson is sufficing as a #5.
And whether we like it or not, Greene is getting one of the rotation spots as long as he's not on the IL. Maybe he gets bumped down next year, but he's getting a spot regardless.

So it really comes down to what the Reds wanna do with that last spot.
Do they feel comfortable enough between Lodolo, Phillips, and maybe Lively?
Or will (should) they get someone more proven?

I'd love if they did get someone like a Sonny Gray, but I could also see them going for someone younger like Brady Singer from KC or the guys they got.

I think at the end of the day, the Reds' performance in June/July got the fans bought into the team being able to compete again, and they won't be satisfied with another down year moving forward. Rebuild is done in the fans' eyes.