Salary Cap Discussion

[casear2727]

(01-18-2024, 01:14 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Reader turns 30 years old this Summer.
Bengals haven't traditionally signed players 30+ years old to multi-year contracts.

If Reader is retained, it would only be for 2024, I think.

If that were the case, I'd offer him no more than $10 mill given his injuries and age.
That's still relatively close to his $13.25 mill AAV he got on his last contract, which was when he was in his prime.

Do that and draft a guy in Rd 2-4 range to groom for a year.

Bengals should do a club option 2nd year in case he heals up and plays well.  Doesn't cost us anything and could help us get him signed.

[*psychdoctor*]

(01-14-2024, 05:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: Between the weak TE market and draft class, I wouldn't mind seeing Sample retained as a blocking TE.  Irwin is an RFA, so he makes sense to tender for cheap depth.

No way I'm paying Reader $12 mil on a one year deal when he's pretty much guaranteed to miss a good chunk of the season.

The Higgins FT is crippling and makes zero sense unless you're going to trade him.  It's a good FA class and top heavy WR class, so you have a good chance to replace him this year.  Why punt on it for another year?  Plus, with it being a one year deal, you can't free up extra cap space for this year with structure.  

What is the recovery timeline for Reader?

[casear2727]

(01-18-2024, 08:07 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: What is the recovery timeline for Reader?

I have read everything from 9 months to a year, and each time with the disclaimer that it could be career ending.  Jamal Adams took a took 13 months.  

"Quadriceps tendon tears are usually season-ending injuries and may be career ending. Even with acute, primary surgical repair, only about half will return to competitive play."  American Journal of Sports Medicine 


Anecdotal evidence certainly supports careers ended:

• Center LeCharles Bentley tore his patellar tendon as a 26-year-old in 2006. Despite the fact he was coming off a Pro Bowl season, he never played again. 
  

• Running back Cadillac Williams suffered back-to-back patellar tendon injuries to separate knees in 2007 and 2008. The former 1,000-yard rusher battled back to start 24 games in 2009 and 2010, but he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry during that period. His career came to an end the next year.
  

• Running back Ryan Williams suffered a torn patellar tendon as a rookie in 2011. The second-round pick returned for five games in 2012 but never played another snap after that. "Growing up I thought that the worst injury you could have is the ACL," Williams said last year, per Fox Sports. "Nah, when you tear that patellar tendon and your kneecap shifts to your thigh, that's something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy."
  

• Safety Jim Leonhard suffered the injury late in 2011. He had started 53 games in four seasons but started just 13 over the next three years before retiring. 
  

• Wide receiver Greg Childs tore both patellar tendons before his rookie season in 2012. He never played a regular-season game. 
  

• Wide receiver Brandon Gibson tore his patellar tendon midway through the 2013 season, returned to play 14 games with the Miami Dolphins in 2014 but hasn't played since. 
  

• Linebacker Jerod Mayo suffered the injury as a 28-year-old in 2014. He played sparingly in 2015 before announcing his retirement. 
  

There are some positives, however:

• Safety Nate Allen has never been a star, but he represents hope. The 2010 second-round pick suffered a torn patellar tendon late in his rookie season but missed only the first two games of the 2011 campaign and was a regular starter for each of the next four years with the Philadelphia Eagles. 
  

• Cornerback Patrick Robinson missed most of the 2013 season because of the same injury, but the former first-round pick has battled back to play 30 combined games the last two seasons with the New Orleans Saints and San Diego Chargers. 
  

• Cornerback Morris Claiborne missed most of the 2014 season through the same injury, but the former first-round pick battled back to start 11 games for the Dallas Cowboys in 2015.
  
  DJ Reader tore his OTHER quad in Game 5 in 2020, he came back in 2021 to have a very good season. 
  

[Hammerstripes]

(01-18-2024, 01:09 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Backtracking already? 

You said he wouldn't be signed atcthe start of the season. I will take that bet. 

You said he wouldn't see the field before December. I will take that bet. 

$2-$3 million is also flatly absurd. 

The only thing you said that makes any sense is we need 2-3 guys at DT/NT. 

1) Reader 
2) Pass rushing DT (FA or draft) 
3) Reader placeholder/Tufele/Tupou upgrade (draft or lesser FA). 

I could live with another year of Tupou & Carter, but only as the 3rd options. As #2's, they are weak. Tufele is a PS guy. 

No, not back tracking at all.

I will still bet that he won't be signed at the start of the season - if he is, someone is giving a huge discount.  He injured it in mid December and it's widely considered a 9-12 month recovery.  I love DJ, but to sign him to big money at the start of the season is pretty foolish.  There's no way he signs in March, so when the season rolls around, most teams don't have the "big money" to offer a free agent.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-18-2024, 08:50 PM)casear2727 Wrote:

I have read everything from 9 months to a year, and each time with the disclaimer that it could be career ending.  Jamal Adams took a took 13 months.  

"Quadriceps tendon tears are usually season-ending injuries and may be career ending. Even with acute, primary surgical repair, only about half will return to competitive play."  American Journal of Sports Medicine 


Anecdotal evidence certainly supports careers ended:

• Center LeCharles Bentley tore his patellar tendon as a 26-year-old in 2006. Despite the fact he was coming off a Pro Bowl season, he never played again. 
  

• Running back Cadillac Williams suffered back-to-back patellar tendon injuries to separate knees in 2007 and 2008. The former 1,000-yard rusher battled back to start 24 games in 2009 and 2010, but he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry during that period. His career came to an end the next year.
  

• Running back Ryan Williams suffered a torn patellar tendon as a rookie in 2011. The second-round pick returned for five games in 2012 but never played another snap after that. "Growing up I thought that the worst injury you could have is the ACL," Williams said last year, per Fox Sports. "Nah, when you tear that patellar tendon and your kneecap shifts to your thigh, that's something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy."
  

• Safety Jim Leonhard suffered the injury late in 2011. He had started 53 games in four seasons but started just 13 over the next three years before retiring. 
  

• Wide receiver Greg Childs tore both patellar tendons before his rookie season in 2012. He never played a regular-season game. 
  

• Wide receiver Brandon Gibson tore his patellar tendon midway through the 2013 season, returned to play 14 games with the Miami Dolphins in 2014 but hasn't played since. 
  

• Linebacker Jerod Mayo suffered the injury as a 28-year-old in 2014. He played sparingly in 2015 before announcing his retirement. 
  

There are some positives, however:

• Safety Nate Allen has never been a star, but he represents hope. The 2010 second-round pick suffered a torn patellar tendon late in his rookie season but missed only the first two games of the 2011 campaign and was a regular starter for each of the next four years with the Philadelphia Eagles. 
  

• Cornerback Patrick Robinson missed most of the 2013 season because of the same injury, but the former first-round pick has battled back to play 30 combined games the last two seasons with the New Orleans Saints and San Diego Chargers. 
  

• Cornerback Morris Claiborne missed most of the 2014 season through the same injury, but the former first-round pick battled back to start 11 games for the Dallas Cowboys in 2015.
  
  DJ Reader tore his OTHER quad in Game 5 in 2020, he came back in 2021 to have a very good season. 
  

In 2021, despite tearing the quad in week 5 the previous year, he started week 1 and played in 15 of 17 games. We rested the starters the last week. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReadD.00/gamelog/2021/

Reader has already had the surgery and started rehab. Absolutely no hint of the injury being career ending. He said rehab is going better this time (though as a FA, what would he say, so, grain of salt there). Still, he did not look worried, in the slightest. PFF isn't worried. Spotrac isn't worried. They all think he is gonna get paid. 

He'll be ready by October, if not sooner. 9 months is 9/16. 

This career ending talk is, in my opinion, much exaggerated. Still a long way to go. In two months we will have a better idea. 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-19-2024, 11:25 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: No, not back tracking at all.

I will still bet that he won't be signed at the start of the season - if he is, someone is giving a huge discount.  He injured it in mid December and it's widely considered a 9-12 month recovery.  I love DJ, but to sign him to big money at the start of the season is pretty foolish.  There's no way he signs in March, so when the season rolls around, most teams don't have the "big money" to offer a free agent.

So what is the bet? 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Now for something more concrete, and those who do not believe the $55 mil number is real.

A. Cap
1. Projected cap = $242,500,000
2. 2023 Rollover = $10,766,741
--------------------
3. Total Cap 2023 = $253,266,741
4. Dead Money = ($1,775,689)
------------
5. 2024 Working Cap = 251,491,052.

Will will likely incur more dead money before all is said & done? Sure, but it will be minimal unless we are cutting someone who saves us more on the cap by doing so.

B. Contracts

1. 19 signed starters = $154,255,691
-----Burrow, Mixon, Chase, OBJ, Volson, Karras, Cappa; Hendrickson, BJ Hill, Hubbard,,Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson, Robbins (Robbins replacement is negligible cap impact).
2. 10 Reserves (29) = $13,398,174
-----C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey, J. Davis, Anderson.
3. 8 iffy Reserves (37) = $13,005,884
-----Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill; Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott.
-------------------------------
4. Total Contracts (37) = $180,659,749
5. First look cap space = $70,831,303

Now, will all of those players make it to the final 53? No. But all 37 were all on the 53 at the end of this year or were before they got hurt.

C. Getting to Functional Cap Space

1. Practice Squad cost (in season) = $4,400,000
2. 1st round pick cap hit (+1, 38) = $2,695,995
3. ERFA's signings (+2, 40) = $1,830,000
------Browning, Adomitis
4. Min FA re-signings (+8, 48) = $8,930,000
------T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping; Tupou, Bailey, Bachie
----------------------
5. Total Estimated Obligations =$17,855,995
-----------
6. Functional Cap Space = $52,975,308

That functional cap space is with 48 guys signed and 5 major holes to fill. I think we have 6 spots where we could spend at significantly above the vet min/draft pick level: WR2, NT, RT, WR3, and TE all need starters, and I think some inside pass rush. The Rd 1 pick will take care of one (I guess we could spend big on CB/S/RB upgrades, but that likely means cheaper elsewhere). Anywho, with 5 holes, I spent to 48 guys to get functional space.

But what about the other 8 draft picks? True, I elected to fill open roster spots with min FA guys instead of picks. But the average salaries of the min guys and the picks (outside the first rounder) is roughly a wash. The picks will be displacing guys already under contract or placeholder vet min FA's I put in those spots.

Reader & Ivey will likely be IR, so going to 55 is acceptable. Throw in ADG/Hudson or more picks, but that likely costs us $1.5-$2.0 mil more. My PS estimate is likely high, though.

Anyway, somewhere between $51-$53 mil to play with and 5 major + 2 minor issues to solve, assuming RD1 takes care of one, so 6.

Hoping Day 2 draft takes two, that means FA needs to take 3-4.

[casear2727]

(01-19-2024, 12:46 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: In 2021, despite tearing the quad in week 5 the previous year, he started week 1 and played in 15 of 17 games. We rested the starters the last week. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReadD.00/gamelog/2021/

Reader has already had the surgery and started rehab. Absolutely no hint of the injury being career ending. He said rehab is going better this time (though as a FA, what would he say, so, grain of salt there). Still, he did not look worried, in the slightest. PFF isn't worried. Spotrac isn't worried. They all think he is gonna get paid. 

He'll be ready by October, if not sooner. 9 months is 9/16. 

This career ending talk is, in my opinion, much exaggerated. Still a long way to go. In two months we will have a better idea. 

Im not saying DJs career is over whatsoever but I just listed 6 players whose careers were ended by this injury.  Im not sure if they had complications or if some are worse than others, would have to ask fellow poster burreauxs, I have zero medical knowledge.  Im DJs biggest fan on this message board.  Hopefully I can get some updates in a few months.

[Ell Prez]

(01-14-2024, 07:04 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: 2 years @ 7.5 million is better than 1 year 10 million. If he can get a long term contract for much better let him go. He can’t be what he was do you think? Big gamble for Cincy not knowing his health so I don’t think it’s disrespectful

I’d take the 1 year at 10M and bet on myself the next year to get more than a $5M contract. He’s never sign a 2 year 15M deal. And no one is going to sign him if he can’t clear a physical. He’s going to be like Larry Ogenjobi. Someone, probably the Ravens after they lose their DT, will sign him super late in free agency or after training camp.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

And, just to put a pin on why I think improving the run defense is more important than pass rush, here are the rushing stats in our division losses:

Week 1: 3-24 at Cle. Browns: 40 rushes for 206 yards. Over 5 per.

Week 2: 24-27 L to Baltimore at home. Ravens: 37 for 178. Almost 5 per.

Week 11: 20-34 L at Balt. Ravens: 31 for 157. Over 5 per.

Week 12: 10-16 loss vs Pitt. Steelers: 33 for 153. Just short of 5 per.

Week 16: 11-34 L at Pitt. Steelers: 30 for 113. Finally a decent run game. But it was over so quick.

807 yards in 5 games is brutal, though. (if my math is correct).

If we cannot stop the run, we cannot win division games. If we cannot win division games, we cannot make the POs. We were 8-3 outside the division this year.

Even if we bring Reader back, we need another quality DT (Wilkins is one) and another quality NT/run stopper (I'd take Sweat in Rd2 even with Wilkins & Reader in the bag, or Jackson Rd 3). If no Wilkins in FA, then Jenkins or Murphy Rd 2 looks real good.

I'd move WR3, TE, and CB depth back a round.

[casear2727]

(01-19-2024, 11:41 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: And, just to put a pin on why I think improving the run defense is more important than pass rush, here are the rushing stats in our division losses:

Week 1: 3-24 at Cle. Browns: 40 rushes for 206 yards. Over 5 per.

Week 2: 24-27 L to Baltimore at home. Ravens: 37 for 178. Almost 5 per.  

Week 11: 20-34 L at Balt. Ravens: 31 for 157. Over 5 per.

Week 12: 10-16 loss vs Pitt. Steelers: 33 for 153. Just short of 5 per.

Week 16: 11-34 L at Pitt. Steelers: 30 for 113. Finally a decent run game. But it was over so quick.

807 yards in 5 games is brutal, though. (if my math is correct).

If we cannot stop the run, we cannot win division games. If we cannot win division games, we cannot make the POs. We were 8-3 outside the division this year.

Even if we bring Reader back, we need another quality DT (Wilkins is one) and another quality NT/run stopper (I'd take Sweat in Rd2 even with Wilkins & Reader in the bag, or Jackson Rd 3). If no Wilkins in FA, then Jenkins or Murphy Rd 2 looks real good.  

I'd move WR3, TE, and CB depth back a round.

Im guessing that Seattle almost HAS to re-sign Leonard Williams due to what they gave up to get him, but he is an excellent interior rusher that is a free agent. 

[Essex Johnson]

(01-19-2024, 11:25 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: No, not back tracking at all.

I will still bet that he won't be signed at the start of the season - if he is, someone is giving a huge discount.  He injured it in mid December and it's widely considered a 9-12 month recovery.  I love DJ, but to sign him to big money at the start of the season is pretty foolish.  There's no way he signs in March, so when the season rolls around, most teams don't have the "big money" to offer a free agent.

I totally agree with you that he will not be signing a contract in March and it is very likely he probably won;t be able to pass a physical in any type of signing in most of offseason, the word ive heard more liking a 4 game pup at start of season, that is going to depress his value and will be tough to get his market value in any deal

[J24]

(01-18-2024, 02:38 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Bengals should do a club option 2nd year in case he heals up and plays well.  Doesn't cost us anything and could help us get him signed.

Wouldn't hurt!

[J24]

We can save about 10 million in cap space by cutting Mixon, Scott, and Carmen! Additionally we can save another 14 M if we cut both Hilton & Hll.(of course you only do that if you're comfortable with thier replacements).

[casear2727]

(01-22-2024, 09:54 PM)J24 Wrote: We can save about 10 million in cap space by  cutting Mixon, Scott, and Carmen! Additionally we can save another 14 M if we  cut both Hilton & Hll.(of course you only do that if you're comfortable with thier replacements).

We lose money if we cut Dax Hill.   You talking about Trey?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-23-2024, 02:28 AM)casear2727 Wrote: We lose money if we cut Dax Hill.   You talking about Trey?

I assume he’s taking about BJ.

So many Hill’s.

[casear2727]

(01-23-2024, 03:50 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I assume he’s taking about BJ.

So many Hill’s.

Lol, of course he is.  Im an idiot.  He mentioned Hilton and I was thinking of DBs.  I see no way we could even consider cutting BJ, we need more DTs.....

[J24]

(01-23-2024, 02:28 AM)casear2727 Wrote: We lose money if we cut Dax Hill.   You talking about Trey?

BJ

[J24]

(01-23-2024, 10:34 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Lol, of course he is.  Im an idiot.  He mentioned Hilton and I was thinking of DBs.  I see no way we could even consider cutting BJ, we need more DTs.....

Like I said in the post if you feel comfortable with his replacement. Example- Bengals sign Justin Madubuike to a 4 year 100 Million deal(40 Million Guaranteed)! Not saying you straight up cut BJ without reason.

[casear2727]

(01-23-2024, 10:39 AM)J24 Wrote: Like I said in the post if you feel comfortable in his replacement. Example- Bengals sign Justin Madubuike to a 4 year 100 Million deal(40 Million Guaranteed)! Not saying you straight up cut BJ without reason.

Then we would have a better BJ but still with a disappointing Carter.  I'd rather cut Carter and save that 1.5M, that would reduce BJ's hit from 7 to 5.5 theoretically.