4 years 140M, 110M guaranteed is the starting place for Jamarr after Jefferson signs

[Essex Johnson]

Jefferson is best WR in league, Chase is not, if he thinks he is that is fine but any variable I plug in says no, no way he deserves more than JJ

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 09:16 PM)ElkValleyBengal Wrote: Trading Chase has to be at least on the table. Though now that's a much tougher sell.

lol… this is silly.

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 09:37 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Jefferson is best WR in league, Chase is not, if he thinks he is that is fine but any variable I plug in says no, no way he deserves more than JJ

The only variable where Chase is better is touchdowns scored. The reality is that Chase is closer to waddle than he is Jefferson. Waddle got $28.25m/year for 3 years where Jefferson got $35m a year for 4 years. The GTD money is different, but both waddle and Jefferson are almost locks to see these contracts through, if not get extended early.

I see Chase as $30-$32m/year if we are talking about on field production, but as others have stated, that’s not how it works.

Hypothetically, would the Vikings trade Jefferson for Chase? I think that answer is no. Would the bengals trade Chase for Jefferson? I think that answer is yes.

Both are elite at their position, but one is the best, the other is top 3-5.

At any rate, the framework is there with the brown, st brown, waddle and Jefferson extensions to get something done.

[J24]

(06-03-2024, 09:37 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Jefferson is best WR in league,  Chase is not, if he thinks he is that is fine but any variable I plug in says no, no way he deserves more than JJ

I completely disagree with this ; JJ has been forced  fed the ball his entire career while Chase has had to share the wealth with Tee and Boyd. Of course his numbers are going to be better because of it.

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 09:53 PM)J24 Wrote: I completely disagree with this ; JJ has been forced  fed the ball his entire career while Chase has had to share the wealth with Tee and Boyd. Of course his numbers are going to be better because of it.

The output per target favors Jefferson. Look at last 3 years production objectively.

Jefferson has 451 targets to 407 for Chase.

Both catch around 66% of passes

Jefferson has 700 more receiving yards.

Jefferson has 22 games of 100+ yards while Chase has 14 such games.

Jefferson has played 44 games to Chase 45.

TJ hockenson had more targets last year than tee Higgins has had in any year, and 86 the year before in just 10 games.

Jordan Addison had 108 targets last year, Tyler Boyd hasn’t had that man in 4 years.

Adam thielen had 107 in 2022.
Osborn had 80 in 2022.

The opportunity share between Chase/jefferson is about as much of a “wash” as you’ll find. The target tree is similar.

[PDub80]

(06-03-2024, 08:12 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It's either that or they weren't allowed to sign him until after his 3rd NFL season.

I hate it when folks look like fools. 

He became eligible for an extension Jan 2023.... last off-season. Not sure what your comment quoting me was referring to?

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 10:02 PM)PDub80 Wrote: He became eligible for an extension Jan 2023.

I think it’s confusing as one (you) is talking about Higgins and the other Chase.

[*bfine32*]

(06-03-2024, 10:05 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: I think it’s confusing as one (you) is talking about Higgins and the other Chase.

Yeah, I'm talking about Chase in the thread comparing Jefferson's contract to Chase. 

Perhaps he was talking about Tee, but I don't see how JJ's contract has anything to do w/ Tee. 

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 10:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Yeah, I'm talking about Chase in the thread comparing Jefferson's contract to Chase. 

Perhaps he was talking about Tee, but I don't see how JJ's contract has anything to do w/ Tee. 

There was one post on should we keep tee at 26 or chase at 35. Idk however.

[Ell Prez]

(06-03-2024, 05:31 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Chase has zero incentive to sign soon. The longer he waits the more the cap rises, the more contracts inflate, and the more money hes going to get. 

A fat $87M due in year 1 could be incentive to sign. Seeing that many zeroes in your bank account is different than knowing you’ll get it next year. Money now>money later

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-03-2024, 09:53 PM)J24 Wrote: I completely disagree with this ; JJ has been forced  fed the ball his entire career while Chase has had to share the wealth with Tee and Boyd. Of course his numbers are going to be better because of it.

Jefferson is clearly #1 right now, but I do think it’s closer than some think. When they were both in the same offense Chase was better.

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 10:26 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Jefferson is clearly #1 right now, but I do think it’s closer than some think. When they were both in the same offense Chase was better.

College vs NFL. They both were 1500 yard receivers in college.

It’s Jefferson/hill for 2024, then lamb, brown, chase, st brown.

If we are looking at the next 5 years, hill goes below all of them, so Jefferson and then those 4.

At least my opinion.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-03-2024, 10:39 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: College vs NFL. They both were 1500 yard receivers in college.

It’s Jefferson/hill for 2024, then lamb, brown, chase, st brown.

If we are looking at the next 5 years, hill goes below all of them, so Jefferson and then those 4.

At least my opinion.

Obviously. Still think it would be about the same if they were on an NFL team together.

[*bfine32*]

(06-03-2024, 10:39 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: College vs NFL.  They both were 1500 yard receivers in college.  

It’s Jefferson/hill for 2024, then lamb, brown, chase, st brown.  

If we are looking at the next 5 years, hill goes below all of them, so Jefferson and then those 4.  

At least my opinion.

We also must consider WRs like Olave and Wilson will be eligible for extensions after this year. 

[PDub80]

(06-03-2024, 10:05 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: I think it’s confusing as one (you) is talking about Higgins and the other Chase.

(06-03-2024, 10:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Yeah, I'm talking about Chase in the thread comparing Jefferson's contract to Chase. 

Perhaps he was talking about Tee, but I don't see how JJ's contract has anything to do w/ Tee. 

I was 100% talking about Tee and mentioned him by name. I was just noting that the WR market in general has been exploding over the last 2 offseasons and how it relates to Higgins as well as what WRs are getting today vs when Chad played. It's wild to me to think that Higgins tag number is a shade under 1/2 of Chad's career earnings.

Chase's deal is a year off at this point. At least to me it is with the 5 year extension. Other WR deals will get done between now and Chase. Those are also going to keep pushing the envelope.

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 11:13 PM)bfine32 Wrote: We also must consider WRs like Olave and Wilson will be eligible for extensions after this year. 

If we are going to consider olave and Wilson, we might as well throw in Higgins as well…

They are not (yet) close to the 5 younger guys listed above.

[ElkValleyBengal]

(06-03-2024, 09:16 PM)ElkValleyBengal Wrote: Trading Chase has to be at least on the table.  Though now that's a much tougher sell.

(06-03-2024, 09:41 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: lol… this is silly.

 Paying $90 million for two players may be deemed silly by some.  Not calling for them to trade Chase, but it has to be an option.

[*bfine32*]

(06-03-2024, 11:42 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: If we are going to consider olave and Wilson, we might as well throw in Higgins as well…

They are not (yet) close to the 5 younger guys  listed above.

St. Brown first 2-Years in the NFL: 2073 yards, 196 catches, 11 TDs

Lamb first 2-years in the NFL: 2035 yards, 155 catches, 11 TDs

Brown first 2-Years in the NFL: 2126 yards, 112 catches, 12 TDs

Wilson first 2-years in the NFL: 2145, 178 catches, 7 TDs

Olave first 2-years in the NFL: 2165 yards, 159 catches, 9 TDs

I'd say we can include Wilson and Olave in their class. 

Ironically, the only one who was well above them all after 2-years is Chase, but he's the only one who hasn't improved on his rookie year

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 11:42 PM)PDub80 Wrote: I was 100% talking about Tee and mentioned him by name. I was just noting that the WR market in general has been exploding over the last 2 offseasons and how it relates to Higgins as well as what WRs are getting today vs when Chad played. It's wild to me to think that Higgins tag number is a shade under 1/2 of Chad's career earnings.

Chase's deal is a year off at this point. At least to me it is with the 5 year extension. Other WR deals will get done between now and Chase.

With inflation considered it’s not close to half. Palmer was also the highest paid QB for a minute at $16m/year.

All positions have exploded.

In 2005 the salary cap was $85,500,000. From what I could find, it looks like Moss was the highest paid receiver at $9M AAV (10.5% of cap)

Salary cap is now $255m, so around 3x. Including Jefferson’s 2024 salary, his earnings will be $159.743 million through five years, or 31.8m/year (12.5% of cap).

So yes, it’s higher, but not by as much as you would think.

[Bengalbug]

(06-03-2024, 11:55 PM)bfine32 Wrote: St. Brown first 2-Years in the NFL: 2073 yards, 196 catches, 11 TDs

Lamb first 2-years in the NFL: 2035 yards, 155 catches, 11 TDs

Brown first 2-Years in the NFL: 2126 yards, 112 catches, 12 TDs

Wilson first 2-years in the NFL: 2145, 178 catches, 7 TDs

Olave first 2-years in the NFL: 2165 yards, 159 catches, 9 TDs

I'd say we can include Wilson and Olave in their class. 

Ironically, the only one who was well above them all after 2-years is Chase, but he's the only one who hasn't improved on his rookie year

I guess we will find out. Waddle, Devonta smith, Dk Metcalf, to name a few. there are a LOT of good receivers in the nfl. If we are only looking at first two years, should we put Higgins in this potential as well? The only thing that stopped him was injuries.