The Tee Conundrum

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-20-2024, 10:42 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: So very painful 

Our QB and like 3 others on fire!! And the rest of the team "the bad news bears"

Rex called the entire defense besides Hendrickson "scout team level" players. That's pathetic. That's Duke Tobin and the "front office" with their four whole scouts. 

[*Synric*]

Tee Higgins is a really good receiver. I'm surprised he isn't hurt more often...Seems like he's taking massive hits in the middle of the field every week. That is his skill set combat catches through contact.. they going to miss that.

[*Nately120*]

(11-20-2024, 10:46 AM)Synric Wrote: Tee Higgins is a really good receiver. I'm surprised he isn't hurt more often...Seems like he's taking massive hits in the middle of the field every week. That is his skill set combat catches through contact.. they going to miss that.

Is he a regular Don Beebe?  Don Teebe?

[WeezyBengal]

(11-18-2024, 09:40 PM)Housh Wrote: I said it weeks ago

Might as well sign him if they money isn’t gonna be used to get a STAR player

The practice of replacing pro bowl guys with cheaper bums is trash and we should be ashamed for ruining a healthy Burrow season.


If you aren’t gonna spend the money why kill the only reason Chase doesn’t get tripled every play?

I'd agree, but the fact still remains that HE DOESNT PLAY. He has missed 50% of his games as a Bengal. That is a huge concern/issue with me paying him. 

[Sled21]

(11-21-2024, 11:05 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I'd agree, but the fact still remains that HE DOESNT PLAY. He has missed 50% of his games as a Bengal. That is a huge concern/issue with me paying him. 

Right, and his injuried aren't from hits, they are hamstring and quad injuries. That is not going to improve with age.

[3wt]

(11-21-2024, 12:17 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Right, and his injuried aren't from hits, they are hamstring and quad injuries. That is not going to improve with age.

I've said it before - ad nauseum I'm sure - but Housh solved his own hamstring issue.  He had 2.5 years of really bad hamstring issues.  He went out, researched it, committed to a rigorous power yoga routine and never had an extended soft tissue injury again in his career.   I'd say Tee should be doing the same thing - and he should.

But who runs the team?  You can't sit there and let a rash of soft tissue injuries plague your team and sit on your hands.  And going to your old standbys - Kettering Health and whoever is clearly not working.  Think out of the dag gone box and take some frigging responsibility for outcomes!  Do something, do something, do something!

My biggest frustrations with a family I otherwise have SO much respect for is they sit there and let their resources drift away.  They did the same thing with Jonathan Joseph.   I've never heard such a deafening silence as Zimmer's following the debacle.  They just let him go.  When you have two really good CBs you don't let someone just scarf one of them up!

Tee is a beast!  He has the fire in his gut.  He has rare talent that is a wonderful counter to Chase.   He's a deal if he plays only 2/3 of the season.

But I think he could be healthy for all of it, and could have been signed two years ago and we wouldn't be wasting out discussions about it.

This team gets paid billions to put a product on the field.  Step to the plate and do your job.   You'll still have a very good payday.

Sheez

[Housh]

(11-21-2024, 11:05 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I'd agree, but the fact still remains that HE DOESNT PLAY. He has missed 50% of his games as a Bengal. That is a huge concern/issue with me paying him. 

We either get 8-12 games of Tee or we replace him with Yoshi or another bum ass WR that isn’t gonna get open


Also the key point is we never spend the money on another good player

So we may as well keep him

[*Go Cards*]

(11-20-2024, 10:26 AM)Wyche Wrote: It's the Son of Paul way!

True, yet many on here agreed with MB that Tee should not have been traded in off season when he his value was still high.

[Sled21]

(11-21-2024, 12:35 PM)3wt Wrote: I've said it before - ad nauseum I'm sure - but Housh solved his own hamstring issue.  He had 2.5 years of really bad hamstring issues.  He went out, researched it, committed to a rigorous power yoga routine and never had an extended soft tissue injury again in his career.   I'd say Tee should be doing the same thing - and he should.

But who runs the team?  You can't sit there and let a rash of soft tissue injuries plague your team and sit on your hands.  And going to your old standbys - Kettering Health and whoever is clearly not working.  Think out of the dag gone box and take some frigging responsibility for outcomes!  Do something, do something, do something!

My biggest frustrations with a family I otherwise have SO much respect for is they sit there and let their resources drift away.  They did the same thing with Jonathan Joseph.   I've never heard such a deafening silence as Zimmer's following the debacle.  They just let him go.  When you have two really good CBs you don't let someone just scarf one of them up!

Tee is a beast!  He has the fire in his gut.  He has rare talent that is a wonderful counter to Chase.   He's a deal if he plays only 2/3 of the season.

But I think he could be healthy for all of it, and could have been signed two years ago and we wouldn't be wasting out discussions about it.

This team gets paid billions to put a product on the field.  Step to the plate and do your job.   You'll still have a very good payday.

Sheez

He should, but evidently he's not.

[Ell Prez]

(11-19-2024, 07:11 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: Trade him for parts.

The team has enough holes that the offense does not need to be rich at WR if it can make some stops on defense, or improve the interior o-line.

If the o-line is stacked, it does not matter who the Bengals have at WR.

If the defense is shut down, it does not matter if the offense struggles at times.

Trade him for parts.

I agree with tagging and trading. But that’s unlikely. What is likely is he walks for nothing. Even if we do trade him, the asset we get (maybe a 2nd?) doesn’t fix the defense. The defense is soooooo bad it needs 7 new good players. So letting Tee go could net 2 players. 1 with the draft pick acquired and 1 with a FA singing we don’t give Tee. Maybe 2 very average players which has been our problem.

[Sled21]

(Yesterday, 09:37 AM)Ell Prez Wrote: I agree with tagging and trading. But that’s unlikely. What is likely is he walks for nothing. Even if we do trade him, the asset we get (maybe a 2nd?) doesn’t fix the defense. The defense is soooooo bad it needs 7 new good players. So letting Tee go could net 2 players. 1 with the draft pick acquired and 1 with a FA singing we don’t give Tee. Maybe 2 very average players which has been our problem.

So do nothing because we need 7 players. Such a mindset.

[Ell Prez]

(Yesterday, 09:40 AM)Sled21 Wrote: So do nothing because we need 7 players. Such a mindset.

That’s not what I said. I said I’m in favor of tag and trade. And I said it’s probably not what the Bengals organization will do.

There are so many ways they could screw this up and I believe that they will.


They could do nothing and let him walk for a comp pick in 2026.

They could franchise tag him again and not spend money on defense.

They could let him walk or trade him, and still not use that $26M/yr on quality defense.

They could take that draft pick they get and draft a bust.


The smart thing to do is tag and trade and use the cap space and extra pick on defense. However, I don’t trust them to do anything right and it is possible that the best route is to keep the known entity which is a really good nfl player. If I knew what they would do with the resources (money and picks) I would know for sure where I stand. I obviously don’t, but if I have to chose a side I would say tag and trade.

[Au165]

Everyone acting like tag and trades are this super common thing in the NFL and we will get value for Tee are a bit overly optimistic. Jarvis Landry got traded for a 4th and future 7th while on the tag in 2018 (Last WR to compare to). My guess is something for Tee would potentially be in a similar ballpark. Since then the WR depth in the draft has gotten better but contracts for WR's have also sky rocketed so even that may be a bit optimistic.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

We had 5-6 elite players during the SB/AFC title years: Burrow, Chase, Hendrickson, Reader, Bates, & Higgins. Mixon and Chido were also VERY good. And Boyd wes a fantastic WR3.

Of those 9, 5 are gone and 1 is about to be. The only one we have eecently replaced was Mixon with Brown.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(Yesterday, 07:18 AM)Go Cards Wrote: True, yet many on here agreed with MB that Tee should not have been traded in off season when he his value was still high.

Yep, missed out on our chance to trade Tee for some value in the Offseason. I am sure there were offers, we just wouldn't here none of it.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-18-2024, 02:47 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: With how bad the entire roster is outside Burrow/Chase/Trey...it makes sense to keep Tee as we're definitely a better offense when he plays.

The scheme appears to be weak here. Tee beat a double team himself for a long TD last night.

That said, he misses a chunk of games each year.

Thoughts...

Every year, there are usually a handful of early-round pass catchers who make quality contributions as rookies.

Just this year...
MHJ - 546-6
Nabers - 671-3
Odunze - 518-1
Bowers - 744-3 (This is one heck of a draft pick for LV, especially given their QB room)
BTJ - 689-5
McConkey - 615-4
Coleman - 417-3 (missed a couple games with injury)

I am of the opinion the Bengals could get a really good safety and/or pass rusher with the money it will cost to tag/retain Higgins again and instead use a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on a WR to replace him.
The Bengals don't seem to do too well developing defensive draft picks (especially pass rushers) and will probably have more luck getting immediate contributions from a pass catcher instead.

Plus, a pass catcher on a 4-5 year rookie deal should mean Chase could be extended for a 3-4 year deal and not really have any overlap of two big pass catcher contracts.

[Bengalbug]

(10 hours ago)ochocincos Wrote: Every year, there are usually a handful of early-round pass catchers who make quality contributions as rookies.

Just this year...
MHJ - 546-6
Nabers - 671-3
Odunze - 518-1
Bowers - 744-3 (This is one heck of a draft pick for LV, especially given their QB room)
BTJ - 689-5
McConkey - 615-4
Coleman - 417-3 (missed a couple games with injury)

I am of the opinion the Bengals could get a really good safety and/or pass rusher with the money it will cost to tag/retain Higgins again and instead use a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on a WR to replace him.
The Bengals don't seem to do too well developing defensive draft picks (especially pass rushers) and will probably have more luck getting immediate contributions from a pass catcher instead.

Plus, a pass catcher on a 4-5 year rookie deal should mean Chase could be extended for a 3-4 year deal and not really have any overlap of two big pass catcher contracts.

4 of the ten you listed were top 10 picks. You can play this game, but there is a ying to the yang you are describing. Plus it’s not just replace Tee, it’s replace Tee and bring in more to upgrade the WR room.

Xavier worthy, Ricky pearsall, Xavier Legette, Jalynn Polk and AD Mitchell are the other WRs drafted round 1 and 2 this year.

If we end up with a top 12 pick, you might be able to get 80% production of a healthy Tee Higgins. Outside of that, it’s 50/50 if he will amount to much.

[*ochocincos*]

(10 hours ago)Bengalbug Wrote: 4 of the ten you listed were top 10 picks.   You can play this game, but there is a ying to the yang you are describing.  Plus it’s not just replace Tee, it’s replace Tee and bring in more to upgrade the WR room.  

Xavier worthy, Ricky pearsall, Xavier Legette, Jalynn Polk and AD Mitchell are the other WRs drafted round 1 and 2 this year.

If we end up with a top 12 pick, you might be able to get 80% production of a healthy Tee Higgins.  Outside of that, it’s 50/50 if he will amount to much.

Only 3 were Top 10 picks - Harrison, Nabers, Odunze.
Bowers was 13th, Thomas was next WR taken after Odunze and was 23rd, and the rest came after.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/picks/

Bengals can get an immediate contributor pass catcher in Rd 1-2.
It's not guaranteed they will get a great one, as there are some that have not, but there are plenty that are.

Compare that to the pass rushers who have 4+ sacks so far:
Latu
Verse
Fiske

Out of 15 DL drafted in Rds 1-2.

More likely Bengals will get immediate impact from a WR as a rookie compared to a DL.

I'm not worried about getting 80% of Higgins from a 1st round pick. 800 yards compared to 1000 yards is fine for a decrease, IMO.
The question will be what are you getting for $25+ mill for a DL/SAF with that money compared to having Higgins + defensive draft pick?

[Bengalbug]

(9 hours ago)ochocincos Wrote: Only 3 were Top 10 picks - Harrison, Nabers, Odunze.
Bowers was 13th, Thomas was next WR taken after Odunze and was 23rd, and the rest came after.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/picks/

Bengals can get an immediate contributor pass catcher in Rd 1-2.
It's not guaranteed they will get a great one, as there are some that have not, but there are plenty that are.

Compare that to the pass rushers who have 4+ sacks so far:
Latu
Verse
Fiske

Out of 15 DL drafted in Rds 1-2.

More likely Bengals will get immediate impact from a WR as a rookie compared to a DL.

I'm not worried about getting 80% of Higgins from a 1st round pick. 800 yards compared to 1000 yards is fine for a decrease, IMO.
The question will be what are you getting for $25+ mill for a DL/SAF with that money compared to having Higgins + defensive draft pick?

Receivers have the highest bust rate for 1st round picks dating back to 2000. Every year people talk about the immediate production that they provide. It’s a fallacy, more often than not, and is the biggest gamble there is.

Article 1:

Round One Wide Receivers

The gold mine. The king of kings. If you’re drafting a receiver for fantasy football or your NFL team, it’s likely the first round ones hit at a higher rate. This shouldn’t be surprising, but the data does back up the age old adage that draft capital matters. First round wide receivers hit rate was about 50 percent in the data, with 20 out of 43 hitting.

Refining this to receivers taken top ten, the hit rate was nine out of 14. Injuries to Kevin White, a head-scratching pick of John Ross and a cheeseburger addiction for Sammy Watkins even skew the data to an even more positive light. This leaves a hit rate for the rest of the round as fairly close to round two (37 versus 38 percent) but still higher.

Article 2:

With that in mind, ESPN's Adam Schefter shared an interesting bit of data on social media, compiled by ESPN producer Paul Hembekides. He looked at first-round picks at every position between 2000-19 to determine a success rate -- or hit rate -- at each position to get an idea of what the surest and riskiest bets are for teams looking to nail their top pick.

According to the research, first-round quarterbacks hit at a rate of 46 percent, with 26 being hits and 30 being misses.

An interesting aspect in a year like this with so many high-profile wide receiver prospects can be found at the shockingly low hit rate at that position. Wide receivers were the riskiest of the first-round positions with a hit rate of just 27 percent -- 21 hits and 56 misses.

[Bengalbug]

(9 hours ago)ochocincos Wrote: Only 3 were Top 10 picks - Harrison, Nabers, Odunze.
Bowers was 13th, Thomas was next WR taken after Odunze and was 23rd, and the rest came after.
https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/picks/

Bengals can get an immediate contributor pass catcher in Rd 1-2.
It's not guaranteed they will get a great one, as there are some that have not, but there are plenty that are.

Compare that to the pass rushers who have 4+ sacks so far:
Latu
Verse
Fiske

Out of 15 DL drafted in Rds 1-2.

More likely Bengals will get immediate impact from a WR as a rookie compared to a DL.

I'm not worried about getting 80% of Higgins from a 1st round pick. 800 yards compared to 1000 yards is fine for a decrease, IMO.
The question will be what are you getting for $25+ mill for a DL/SAF with that money compared to having Higgins + defensive draft pick?

Another one:

Drafting a first-round WR is hard, and the hit rate here is historically lower than other positions. There’s a 63 percent chance of drafting a bust or a reach. Think of a reach as a serviceable starter who should’ve been drafted three rounds later, like Tavon Austin (No. 8 in 2013, 21 spots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins) or Mike Williams (No. 7 in 2017).

Your first-round WR typically busts. Out of every three WRs drafted, one has been a bust, like Jalen Reagor, infamously drafted by the Eagles in 2020 at pick No. 21 — one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson.

The odds of landing a superstar are low. Less than one of every five WRs drafted in the first-round hit each criteria. The No. 27 pick in 2013, DeAndre Hopkins, checked every box, as has 2018’s No. 24, D.J. Moore.

The good news? Drafting a WR in the top 10 made teams more likely to at least land a star, like Amari Cooper (No. 4 in 2015).

The bad news? The historical hit rate for a top-10 WR is barely over 50 percent (52.9).

1. First-round WR talent comes in waves. In 2014, two superstars — Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. — were drafted first round, together with a star in Brandin Cooks.

In the following three years, thirteen WRs were drafted in the first round. Over half were top-15 picks. This led to zero superstars, eight of the 13 were busts, and only one, Amari Cooper, became a star.

2. Every first-round WR is fighting the odds, even the top-10 picks. With six players at this position worthy of first-round selection this year, the bust/reach rate of 63 percent makes it likely that three or four of them disappoint.