A positive - Chase Brown

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-20-2024, 06:40 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Go look up Jonah Coleman, RB at Washington. Bowling ball thumper at 5'9", 230 lbs.
At 1168 yards from scrimmage this year after 1154 last year.
I got him pegged as a Day 3 pick in my latest mock.

I will, thanks Ochocincos. We need a thumper at RB IMO.

[*Synric*]

(11-21-2024, 03:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: What made you choose that as your line of him taking over? 

He's had the most carries in every game for the last 7 straight games now. He also stopped getting all his special teams snaps and instead played the majority of the offensive snaps for the last 6 games. I feel like either of those would be a more accurate starting point of when Brown took over as RB1.

Using the 6 game number where he passed off his ST responsibility and started getting the majority of the snaps and the majority of the carries puts him at 90.4 yards from scrimmage per game rather than your 131.3 number. Even just yards from scrimmage alone isn't a great metric because it ignored the 3.8ypc and 6.7avg during those 6 weeks, both of which are bad.

I'm with Essex on I hope he finishes the season real strong and shows he can be a #1. I am just not sure I see it yet.

The regression in Chase Brown's YPC is more on the offense than on him. The injury to Erick All has regressed the rush scheme to 2022 inside zone/duo against box numbers. The counters from the first part of the season are gone.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-21-2024, 03:11 PM)Synric Wrote: The regression in Chase Brown's YPC is more on the offense than on him. The injury to Erick All has regressed the rush scheme to 2022 inside zone/duo against box numbers. The counters from the first part of the season are gone.

In the 6 games where Chase Brown stopped playing special teams and was instead getting the majority of the carries as the primary RB, Erick All was healthy for 3 full games (he got hurt in the 4th). Chase Brown in those 3 games averaged 3.5ypc.

[t3r3e3]

(11-20-2024, 03:16 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The worry with the 49ers is they have a history of taken undrafted backs and making them good. I doubt he comes here and replicates that.

The Shanahan offensive scheme has a history of doing this. Mike put multiple late rounders and UDFA’s into Pro Bowls, and Terrell Davis got a gold jacket.

[*Synric*]

(11-21-2024, 03:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: In the 6 games where Chase Brown stopped playing special teams and was instead getting the majority of the carries as the primary RB, Erick All was healthy for 3 full games (he got hurt in the 4th). Chase Brown in those 3 games averaged 3.5ypc.

No second level blocking keeps his big plays and ypc down. This is an offensive issue not a Chase Brown issue who has been good. 

I'm mostly trying to explain it's not going to get better with the injury to All as the rush scheme has regressed the last 2 1/2 games. They can't run 7 man blocking surfaces anymore so expect more spread 3 by 1 split inside zone runs. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-21-2024, 03:58 PM)Synric Wrote: No second level blocking keeps his big plays and ypc down. This is an offensive issue not a Chase Brown issue who has been good. 

I'm mostly trying to explain it's not going to get better with the injury to All as the rush scheme has regressed the last 2 1/2 games. They can't run 7 man blocking surfaces anymore so expect more spread 3 by 1 split inside zone runs. 

Yes, All was a great run blocker this year. Sure hope he can come back from yet another ACL tear.

[masonbengals fan]

(11-21-2024, 05:10 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yes, All was a great run blocker this year. Sure hope he can come back from yet another ACL tear.

He sure was contributing. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-21-2024, 05:12 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: He sure was contributing. 

Haven't seen a rookie TE ever come out and be that physical of a blocker right out of the gate. He just sought contact and honestly was 
our best run blocker and even blocked Karlaftis in pass protection against the Chiefs for the Yoshi TD. I was initially down on the All pick 
as I wanted a RB at that point in the Draft but he made me change my mind.

[*Synric*]

(11-21-2024, 05:10 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yes, All was a great run blocker this year. Sure hope he can come back from yet another ACL tear.

I would say more average but he did allow them to run and pass from 12 personnel which is something they haven't had.

[Whatever]

(11-21-2024, 06:04 PM)Synric Wrote: I would say more average but he did allow them to run and pass from 12 personnel which is something they haven't had.

5 TE's on the 53...we lose 1, and all of a sudden, we can't run the ball.

But hey, Tanner Hudson is great....

[*ochocincos*]

(11-21-2024, 03:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: What made you choose that as your line of him taking over? 

The numbers I posted were when Zack Moss went down and he took over as the bellcow RB1.

I thought...that was obvious?

Are those numbers he put up not good enough as a bellcow RB1?
If so, please explain why not?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-21-2024, 09:38 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The numbers I posted were when Zack Moss went down and he took over as the bellcow RB1.

I thought...that was obvious?

Are those numbers he put up not good enough as a bellcow RB1?
If so, please explain why not?

Because he had already stopped playing ST and taken over RB1 the three games prior to that?

Moss had 17 carries
Brown had 37 carries

If you're already out-carrying more than 2:1, you're the #1.

(Compared that to the first 3 weeks where Moss was clearly the team's #1 RB with 33 carries and Brown had 14.)

[*ochocincos*]

(11-21-2024, 11:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Because he had already stopped playing ST and taken over RB1 the three games prior to that?

Moss had 17 carries
Brown had 37 carries

If you're already out-carrying more than 2:1, you're the #1.

(Compared that to the first 3 weeks where Moss was clearly the team's #1 RB with 33 carries and Brown had 14.)

I did not remember/realize he took more carries than Moss before that point.
Guess I wasn't paying close enough attention watching the games.
Even so, he's getting nearly 100% of the touches now compared to just 65%

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-21-2024, 06:04 PM)Synric Wrote: I would say more average but he did allow them to run and pass from 12 personnel which is something they haven't had.

Well, he was light years better than anyone else as we see now. Pretty sad, if average looks great to me lol

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(11-21-2024, 10:35 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Can you explain why you think that?

Since Chase Brown took over as the RB1, here are his stats:
LV - 157 yards from scrimmage, 1 TD
BAL - 94 yards from scrimmage, 1 TD
LAC - 143 yards from scrimmage, 0 TD
---------------------------------------------------
Total - 394 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs in 3 games (131.33 YFS average)
81 total touches (27 touches per game average)

That's a "full-time" RB1 in my book.
People might not be overly thrilled with his YPC against BAL and LAC (3.2 and 3.9 respectively), but the Ravens and Chargers are both Top 5 in rushing defense right now.

I just don't see Chase Brown as a full time RB1. Don't forget, this is really his first year with a big role on the team, he's been able to come in and is probably largely 'unaccounted for' on the opposing defence.. I really like him and think he's done great this year, but from 'RB1' I'd ideally like a guy who can close a game when it's on the line and I don't see that in Chase Brown. Maybe it's more the OL and Zac than it is the RB, I don't think it's as crystal clear as this, but take the Ravens game... a strong RB1 probably gives us a few more yards in that position... maybe a first down or two, like Mixon was able to in the AFCCG in Kansas that time. To my mind, Chase Brown is a good back and capable of a big play.. runs hard and is strong effort. But I've never had the vibe from him that he'll be 'RB1' for the next 4-5 years. 

If we look at his game log for the year... he was getting 'good' touches from Carolina onwards... so 8 games. And he's over 4 YPC in 3 of those. That's not RB1 for me.

(11-21-2024, 10:51 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I think they are making a mistake not letting Herbert get some snaps, if for nothing else to keep from wearing Brown down. Yeah, he fumbled a handoff from Burrow, but he had zero full speed reps with him at that time. They benched him and since then he's only been in for one return that I remember. The dude is a proven NFL back, and could probably be an asset if they would use him. If not, then why did they sign him. 

Yeah I mean he's here so may as well use the guy. I'm ok with the carries Brown is getting, I don't think he's getting too many. But we don't run the ball enough for my money anyway. It's Joe Burrow slinging it 40 times a game. I know the pass game is our strength and our run game isn't great, but this isn't college stuff, we should try to be balanced.

(11-21-2024, 12:20 PM)higgy100 Wrote: I would have totally agreed with you up to a few games ago but he's blocking well, running hard and very well with lots of carries so he's becoming durable and he's an integral part of the passing game.Went from a 1-2 down back to a guy you can keep on the field. 

With that said, they absolutely do need another bigger back that can get carries, carries in the short game that can fall forward more and get those extra 1-2 yards (If ZT would ever commit to the running game) and to make sure Chase can maintain his production. Every team but this one uses 2-3 backs with varying skills.

Oh I like Chase Brown, don't get me wrong, I see a guy there who's really giving it his best each time he's out there, and I think he's proving he's capable. But I will revert to my stat from above... over 4 YPC in 3 games since he 'took over' #1 duties. I'm not expecting us to go draft Derrick Henry, but we need more than we get from the run game. That might be more the OL than anything else though. Or it might also be more a comment on Zack Moss. Need more from that group.

[*ochocincos*]

(Yesterday, 04:50 PM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: If we look at his game log for the year... he was getting 'good' touches from Carolina onwards... so 8 games. And he's over 4 YPC in 3 of those. That's not RB1 for me.

Ok so it's about YPC. Got it.
I don't agree necessarily because there will be games where a RB may have under 4.0 YPC due to a good defense and/or may be asked to get used more in the passing game, but to each their own.
I was just curious what you were basing it on.
I base mine more on raw rushing+receiving yards rather than efficiency just running the ball.

If a dude ends up with 1200+ yards from scrimmage but under 4.0 YPC in some games, that's still a RB1 in my eyes.