2025 Free Agency - Who do you want, how much would you spend?

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-03-2025, 08:12 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Then they will have learned nothing from watching guys like Andrew Whitworth and Calais Campbell play strong football, way past the age of 30.

If Campbell wants another year, he can play on my team.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-04-2025, 01:55 AM)J24 Wrote: The Case for Osa!

1.) According to PFF he is 3rd in pressures amongst DTs with 55 compared to Hill who is 35th with 29.

2.) According to PFF Osa is 5th in pass rush win rate with a 14.8 pass rush win rate & 21.7 Pass Rush win rate on true pass sets which makes him 3rd overall amongst DTs.
BJ Hill is 56th with an 8.2 pass rush win rate & on true pass rush sets he is 67th with 10.3. 
(Minimum Of 124 snaps)

 https://twitter.com/stevemayne/status/1874810734275944768?s=19


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41040723/2024-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocB

I'm a little less confident in the Baun but he is regarded as a potential DPOY this season and a versatile LB who can play off ball LB or can play as an edge in the 3-4. He has excellent PFF numbers and traditional numbers. Seems to me he is an old school player who fits any scheme. Specifically a Lou scheme.

Becton is a guy I think the FO will love big, athletic, and Versatile. + the added bonus that he was a former first rd pick.

Ossai is a DE, not a DT. He just kicks inside on passing downs sometimes. 

[*bfine32*]

Byron Murphy

Najee Harris

Josh Sweat

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

On BJ, and why I kind of like him at a moderate price.

1) We know what we are getting. PFF grades him out as the 31st rated DT out of 218 at 69.0. 24/218 vs the run at 67.7. 64.0 vs the pass, 70/218.

Slightly above average in pass rush, significantly so vs the run.

2) He is well above median vs the pass and top 20% vs the run. That is a good player, if not a great one.

Many of the other top guys on that list are better in one area (pass rush, usually) but porous versus the run.

3) I don't like paying big money for a guy who is only good in one phase.

Milton Williams: 69.7 overall, 90.6 pass rush (2nd), but 41.9 vs the run (175th). Now, I love that pash rush grade, but he seems like more of a rotational pass rush specialist. If I has a STUD run defender to pair him with? Say, DJ Reader? Maybe I pay him. But $15 mil is too rich for a guy who is horrendous in the run game.

Maybe if we had more money to burn. I know we need interior pass rush, especially on 3rd down.

There is a reason Williams has taken only 485 snaps, to Hill's 657.

4) BJ can pair effectively with a pass rush first guy or a run defense 1st guy.
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Don't get me wrong, Williams would be a huge get. But he is kind of like OBJ/Karras. Really good pass grade & very poor in the run game.

If I am gonna pay an Eagle $17 mil, I'd rather it be Sweat at DE (75.7 overall, 71.5 pass, 69.3 run). and we just draft Grant/Nolen/Harmon.

It is a close call between guys who are excelllent is one aspect and poor in another vs guys who are above average in both.

I like Hilton a lot. Like Williams he is awesome in one aspect (run D) and less awesome in another. But Hilton is still average+ in coverage. And I certainly don't want to pay him $15 million.

Then again, wouldn't pay BJ $15 mil either.

Calais Campbell makes $2 mil. That's a call I'd make. Even if it is only for a year. 

[J24]

(01-04-2025, 02:02 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Ossai is a DE, not a DT. He just kicks inside on passing downs sometimes. 

This season Osa has played at the DT position 595 out of 816 snaps. So 73% of the snaps, last season he played 456 out of 634 snaps at DT (72%), in 2022 he played 501 out of 616 snaps at DT (81%), and his rookie year he played 440 out of 613 snaps(72%) at DT. So no, Osa is not and DE who plays DT occasionally.

Edit- we are talking about two different people! I'm talking about Osa Odighizuwa and you are talking about Joseph Ossai.

[J24]

(01-04-2025, 02:40 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: On BJ, and why I kind of like him at a moderate price.

1) We know what we are getting. PFF grades him out as the 31st rated DT out of 218 at 69.0. 24/218 vs the run at 67.7. 64.0 vs the pass, 70/218.

Slightly above average in pass rush, significantly so vs the run.

2) He is well above median vs the pass and top 20% vs the run. That is a good player, if not a great one.

Many of the other top guys on that list are better in one area (pass rush, usually) but porous versus the run.

3) I don't like paying big money for a guy who is only good in one phase.

Milton Williams: 69.7 overall, 90.6 pass rush (2nd), but 41.9 vs the run (175th). Now, I love that pash rush grade, but he seems like more of a rotational pass rush specialist. If I has a STUD run defender to pair him with? Say, DJ Reader? Maybe I pay him. But $15 mil is too rich for a guy who is horrendous in the run game.

Maybe if we had more money to burn. I know we need interior pass rush, especially on 3rd down.

There is a reason Williams has taken only 485 snaps, to Hill's 657.

4) BJ can pair effectively with a pass rush first guy or a run defense 1st guy.
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Don't get me wrong, Williams would be a huge get. But he is kind of like OBJ/Karras. Really good pass grade & very poor in the run game.

If I am gonna pay an Eagle $17 mil, I'd rather it be Sweat at DE (75.7 overall, 71.5 pass, 69.3 run). and we just draft Grant/Nolen/Harmon.

It is a close call between guys who are excelllent is one aspect and poor in another vs guys who are above average in both.

I like Hilton a lot. Like Williams he is awesome in one aspect (run D) and less awesome in another. But Hilton is still average+ in coverage. And I certainly don't want to pay him $15 million.

Then again, wouldn't pay BJ $15 mil either.

Calais Campbell makes $2 mil. That's a call I'd make. Even if it is only for a year. 

The reason why Williams p!ays less than BJ Hill is because Jalen Carter is a near elite 3T while BJ has no one else on the roster near his current level. Milton would be getting more snaps than BJ if he was here.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-04-2025, 03:42 PM)J24 Wrote: This season Osa has played at the DT position 595 out of 816 snaps. So 73% of the snaps, last season he played 456 out of 634 snaps at DT (72%), in 2022 he played 501 out of 616 snaps at DT (81%), and his rookie year he played 440 out of 613 snaps(72%) at DT. So no, Osa is not and DE who plays DT occasionally.

Edit- we are talking about two different people! I'm talking about Osa Odighizuwa and you are talking about Joseph Ossai.

Sorry, that was my fault! That you for figuring it out for me.


 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-04-2025, 05:22 PM)J24 Wrote: The reason why Williams p!ays less than BJ Hill is because Jalen Carter is a near elite 3T while BJ has no one else on the roster near his current level. Milton would be getting more snaps than BJ if he was here.

I get what you are saying, but I don't agree. Especially on the Philly side. Yes, BJ plays a ton here because he is our best DT by a country mile. But also because he is effective against the run AND pass. And, I'd also point out it is easier to ball out playing less snaps, harder with more. 

As for the Philly side, there are multiple DT spots, not one, silly. Carter, who is most assuredly a beast, plays as much as possible, but he does not keep Williams off the field, Jordan Davis does. Williams has started 7 of the 16 games he's played. Carter has started 15, Jordan Davis 16. 

Davis is not elite vs the run, but he's MUCH better than Williams. And Carter, while he is a beast, is MUCH better as a pash rusher than a run stopper at this stage.

 Carter + Williams makes a ton of sense on passing downs, and is fearsome, but kinda sucks vs the run. Which is why you get Davis starting and playing on running downs. He's a much better run defender than Williams. 

DT snaps for Philly:

Player, Snaps, PFF Grades (Overall, Pass Run) 
Carter, 831; 74.1, 81.5, 59.0
Davis, 367, 63.1, 65.5, 56.3
Williams, 486, 69.7, 90.6, 41.9
Ojomo: 344; 66.1, 77.6, 59.4
Booker: 127; 54.7, 56.1, 51.1

For comparison, Sweat has played 622 at OLB/DE/EDGE. Smith 546. 

Carter's brilliance is kinda a mark against Williams, not for him. Yeah, he is feasting in pass rush.....BECAUSE THE OTHER TEAM IS ALWAYS DOUBLE-TEAMING CARTER. If he came here, HE'D BE THE GUY GETTING DOUBLE-TEAMED on the interior. Nolan Smith and Sweat on the edge don't hurt, either.

Just saying, it would be tougher sledding for him here than in Philly. I am wary he cannot replicate those numbers as the #1 guy inside (#2 overall) here. Whereas he's #2 inside and #4 overall in Philly. 

The dynamics are kinda the same, but I fear he is more akin to Gesicki than Chase/Higgins. Where Carter/Sweat/Smith are Chase/Tee. 

On passing downs you could line him up next to Hendrickson and that sounds appealing. But if I am Baltimore and I see Hendrickson + Williams in the game, I just run right at them. 

I just don't view him as an every down/most down kind of guy. He plays half the time. And I don't want to give $15+ mil to a rotational/situational guy I am not convinced is that great without Carter/Sweat/Smith around him.

Now, get it down to $9-$10 mil. Now I am interested.