Predicting W/L for the season

[sandwedge]

(07-12-2025, 09:37 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: 15-5 and hoisting their first ever Lombardi trophy!  

On a more serious note, if things fall together for this team 11-12 regular season wins.

I could see them at 11-12 wins and 5-1 in the division. Sweep Pitt and Cleveland

[puddycat]

Below average(as of now) in every position group outside the offensive skill positions. Another 10 win season nail-biting in week 18.

[SunsetBengal]

(Yesterday, 02:38 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I could see them at 11-12 wins and 5-1 in the division. Sweep Pitt and Cleveland

I'd love to see them sweep 2 divisional opponents, however I see them realistically going 4-2 if the season goes well. I mean, unless Lamar Jackson has an injury, I see a split at best with Baltimore. With Pittsburgh I see them being tough as nails until the attrition of injuries catches up with them, they could be a tough out for the Bengals to get two wins against.

[*rfaulk34*]

(Yesterday, 12:42 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I say he is good for impacting on average 2 games a year.  Short example last year is last game of year against Steelers, last two drives Steelers made , 1st drive he stalled a drive and they ended settling for a FG, last drive as Steelers are driving for FG to win game, you make a big sack .  I agree though that is not a major swing but Tre ability to take over a game on Dline normally impacts on average i say 2 games a season.

He really doesn't.

In 2022 Trey had 8 sacks. The team had 30, which was good for 29th in the league. Their record was 12-4 and they went to the AFCCG. 
In 2023 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 44, which was good for 18th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs.
In 2024 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 36, which was good for 25th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs. 

So, why did the team do better when Trey did worse in sacks?

In 2022 their defense was 6th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed.
In 2023 their defense was 21st in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed.
In 2024 their defense was 25th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed.

Burrow, Chase and Tee are constants, which brings me back to my original point. As long as they are healthy and producing at their normal levels, if the defense is even average, they'll be a 10+ win team with a shot at the Super Bowl.

Trey's production won't have an impact on wins and losses, but i'd still like to have our best players that are proven producers here. Sacks are great but if you have a defense that limits yards and makes stops on 3rd down, that negates the need to have sacks on crucial downs. 

[*Synric*]

(11 hours ago)rfaulk34 Wrote: He really doesn't.

In 2022 Trey had 8 sacks. The team had 30, which was good for 29th in the league. Their record was 12-4 and they went to the AFCCG. 
In 2023 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 44, which was good for 18th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs.
In 2024 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 36, which was good for 25th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs. 

So, why did the team do better when Trey did worse in sacks?

In 2022 their defense was 6th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed.
In 2023 their defense was 21st in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed.
In 2024 their defense was 25th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed.

Burrow, Chase and Tee are constants, which brings me back to my original point. As long as they are healthy and producing at their normal levels, if the defense is even average, they'll be a 10+ win team with a shot at the Super Bowl.

Trey's production won't have an impact on wins and losses, but i'd still like to have our best players that are proven producers here. Sacks are great but if you have a defense that limits yards and makes stops on 3rd down, that negates the need to have sacks on crucial downs. 

Trey impacts every snap he's on the field. Offenses have to block him. They use TEs amd RBs which effects their route tree or forces them to stay and block and not release. If they do block him one on one do they move the pocket? Or do they throw it fast or run a screen?

Trey is someone that teams game plan around. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(9 hours ago)Synric Wrote: Trey impacts every snap he's on the field. Offenses have to block him. They use TEs amd RBs which effects their route tree or forces them to stay and block and not release. If they do block him one on one do they move the pocket? Or do they throw it fast or run a screen?

Trey is someone that teams game plan around. 

He doesn't singularly impact it to the level of determining multiple games per season. Otherwise, the Bengals are in the playoffs last year. Or, arguably, not in the playoffs in '22.

He impacts prep and plays. Not wins and losses. 

I'd like to see the Trey of the last 2 years plus the defense(s) of '21 and '22. Then we're talking super bowls again.