Predicting W/L for the season

[sandwedge]

(07-12-2025, 09:37 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: 15-5 and hoisting their first ever Lombardi trophy!  

On a more serious note, if things fall together for this team 11-12 regular season wins.

I could see them at 11-12 wins and 5-1 in the division. Sweep Pitt and Cleveland

[puddycat]

Below average(as of now) in every position group outside the offensive skill positions. Another 10 win season nail-biting in week 18.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-13-2025, 02:38 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I could see them at 11-12 wins and 5-1 in the division. Sweep Pitt and Cleveland

I'd love to see them sweep 2 divisional opponents, however I see them realistically going 4-2 if the season goes well. I mean, unless Lamar Jackson has an injury, I see a split at best with Baltimore. With Pittsburgh I see them being tough as nails until the attrition of injuries catches up with them, they could be a tough out for the Bengals to get two wins against.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-13-2025, 12:42 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I say he is good for impacting on average 2 games a year.  Short example last year is last game of year against Steelers, last two drives Steelers made , 1st drive he stalled a drive and they ended settling for a FG, last drive as Steelers are driving for FG to win game, you make a big sack .  I agree though that is not a major swing but Tre ability to take over a game on Dline normally impacts on average i say 2 games a season.

He really doesn't.

In 2022 Trey had 8 sacks. The team had 30, which was good for 29th in the league. Their record was 12-4 and they went to the AFCCG. 
In 2023 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 44, which was good for 18th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs.
In 2024 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 36, which was good for 25th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs. 

So, why did the team do better when Trey did worse in sacks?

In 2022 their defense was 6th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed.
In 2023 their defense was 21st in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed.
In 2024 their defense was 25th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed.

Burrow, Chase and Tee are constants, which brings me back to my original point. As long as they are healthy and producing at their normal levels, if the defense is even average, they'll be a 10+ win team with a shot at the Super Bowl.

Trey's production won't have an impact on wins and losses, but i'd still like to have our best players that are proven producers here. Sacks are great but if you have a defense that limits yards and makes stops on 3rd down, that negates the need to have sacks on crucial downs. 

[*Synric*]

(07-13-2025, 06:11 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: He really doesn't.

In 2022 Trey had 8 sacks. The team had 30, which was good for 29th in the league. Their record was 12-4 and they went to the AFCCG. 
In 2023 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 44, which was good for 18th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs.
In 2024 Trey had 17.5 sacks. The team had 36, which was good for 25th in the league. Their record was 9-8 and they missed the playoffs. 

So, why did the team do better when Trey did worse in sacks?

In 2022 their defense was 6th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed.
In 2023 their defense was 21st in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed.
In 2024 their defense was 25th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed.

Burrow, Chase and Tee are constants, which brings me back to my original point. As long as they are healthy and producing at their normal levels, if the defense is even average, they'll be a 10+ win team with a shot at the Super Bowl.

Trey's production won't have an impact on wins and losses, but i'd still like to have our best players that are proven producers here. Sacks are great but if you have a defense that limits yards and makes stops on 3rd down, that negates the need to have sacks on crucial downs. 

Trey impacts every snap he's on the field. Offenses have to block him. They use TEs amd RBs which effects their route tree or forces them to stay and block and not release. If they do block him one on one do they move the pocket? Or do they throw it fast or run a screen?

Trey is someone that teams game plan around. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-13-2025, 07:55 PM)Synric Wrote: Trey impacts every snap he's on the field. Offenses have to block him. They use TEs amd RBs which effects their route tree or forces them to stay and block and not release. If they do block him one on one do they move the pocket? Or do they throw it fast or run a screen?

Trey is someone that teams game plan around. 

He doesn't singularly impact it to the level of determining multiple games per season. Otherwise, the Bengals are in the playoffs last year. Or, arguably, not in the playoffs in '22.

He impacts prep and plays. Not wins and losses. 

I'd like to see the Trey of the last 2 years plus the defense(s) of '21 and '22. Then we're talking super bowls again.

[Essex Johnson]

(07-13-2025, 08:33 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: He doesn't singularly impact it to the level of determining multiple games per season. Otherwise, the Bengals are in the playoffs last year. Or, arguably, not in the playoffs in '22.

He impacts prep and plays. Not wins and losses. 

I'd like to see the Trey of the last 2 years plus the defense(s) of '21 and '22. Then we're talking super bowls again.

So Donald performance and last play in SB did not singularly impact that game, i would disagree that all pro type players especially on the either side of the lines, don't impact wins and losses, but i guess it your opinion how you see it vs others that would disagree, 

[HarleyDog]

13-4.


1 Sun, Sep 7 @ Browns 1:00 PM FOX W

2 Sun, Sep 14 v. Jaguars 1:00 PM CBS W

3 Sun, Sep 21 @ Vikings 1:00 PM CBS L

4 Mon, Sep 29 @ Broncos 8:15 PM ABC W

5 Sun, Oct 5 v. Lions 4:25 PM FOX L

6 Sun, Oct 12 @ Packers 4:25 PM CBS W

7 Thu, Oct 16 v. Steelers 8:15 PM Prime W

8 Sun, Oct 26 v. Jets 1:00 PM CBS W

9 Sun, Nov 2 v. Bears 1:00 PM CBS W

10 BYE WEEK

11 Sun, Nov 16 @ Steelers 1:00 PM CBS W

12 Sun, Nov 23 v. Patriots 1:00 PM CBS W

13 Thu, Nov 27 @ Ravens 8:20 PM NBC L

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Bills 4:25 PM FOX L

15 Sun, Dec 14 v. Ravens 1:00 PM CBS W

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Dolphins 8:20 PM NBC W

17 TBA v. Cardinals TBA TBA W

18 TBA v. Browns TBA TBA W

[*rfaulk34*]

(Yesterday, 09:51 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So Donald performance and last play in SB did not singularly impact that game, i would disagree that all pro type players especially on the either side of the lines, don't impact wins and losses, but i guess it your opinion how you see it vs others that would disagree, 

You're comparing the totality of games at any random point to a specific play that ended a game?

Ok, show me the plays Trey has made that ended a game. 

Also, i'm not talking about Aaron Donald. I'm talking about Trey Hendrickson.

[*rfaulk34*]

(Yesterday, 10:06 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: 13-4.


1 Sun, Sep 7 @ Browns 1:00 PM FOX W

2 Sun, Sep 14 v. Jaguars 1:00 PM CBS W

3 Sun, Sep 21 @ Vikings 1:00 PM CBS L

4 Mon, Sep 29 @ Broncos 8:15 PM ABC W

5 Sun, Oct 5 v. Lions 4:25 PM FOX L

6 Sun, Oct 12 @ Packers 4:25 PM CBS W

7 Thu, Oct 16 v. Steelers 8:15 PM Prime W

8 Sun, Oct 26 v. Jets 1:00 PM CBS W

9 Sun, Nov 2 v. Bears 1:00 PM CBS W

10 BYE WEEK

11 Sun, Nov 16 @ Steelers 1:00 PM CBS W

12 Sun, Nov 23 v. Patriots 1:00 PM CBS W

13 Thu, Nov 27 @ Ravens 8:20 PM NBC L

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Bills 4:25 PM FOX L

15 Sun, Dec 14 v. Ravens 1:00 PM CBS W

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Dolphins 8:20 PM NBC W

17 TBA v. Cardinals TBA TBA W

18 TBA v. Browns TBA TBA W

Ok. It's on you. If i don't get my 13 win season this year...i'm rioting!

[*rfaulk34*]

(Yesterday, 09:51 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So Donald performance and last play in SB did not singularly impact that game, i would disagree that all pro type players especially on the either side of the lines, don't impact wins and losses, but i guess it your opinion how you see it vs others that would disagree, 

I guess you could say an opinion is something based on data. Proven, verifiable evidence. Uhhh. No.

I showed you specific data that shows his impact isn't extended to wins and losses.

Now you show me some data that disputes that. 

Opinion wars are lame. Anyone, can come up with any idea and call it 'their opinion' and that's just supposed to supplant evidence? 

No.

[HarleyDog]

(Yesterday, 11:17 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Ok. It's on you. If i don't get my 13 win season this year...i'm rioting!

Oh Shit. The weight on my shoulders is massive. 

[XenoMorph]

(07-12-2025, 04:02 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: If burrow stays healthy team will be in the playoffs

Wasnt he healthy last year?

[ERIC1]

(Yesterday, 01:02 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Wasnt he healthy last year?

Burrow said he was not100% the first half if last season

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

I don't know the W-L, but I do know it's not normally a good sign for a team's success in a season when their offseason is filled with this much drama. Similar but worse feelings as last offseason as far as that goes. It's hard enough to win even when you don't have drama and everyone is all working in the same direction.

[Soonerpeace]

(07-13-2025, 07:55 PM)Synric Wrote: Trey impacts every snap he's on the field. Offenses have to block him. They use TEs amd RBs which effects their route tree or forces them to stay and block and not release. If they do block him one on one do they move the pocket? Or do they throw it fast or run a screen?

Trey is someone that teams game plan around. 

He’s definitely someone who effects game plans. But he’s also average at best in the run game. Him and his agent don’t grasp that. But it’s also less of a factor. But the defense has to have him. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-13-2025, 06:11 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: He really doesn't.

Kind of silly, rfaulk.

Burrow played 10 games and was league average-ish in 2023 and the Bengals went 9-8.
Burrow played 17 games and put up MVP-like numbers in 2024 and the Bengals went 9-8.

Good players doing well still is better for your team and is a positive influence on W-L.

[*rfaulk34*]

(Yesterday, 02:45 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Kind of silly, rfaulk.

Burrow played 10 games and was league average-ish in 2023 and the Bengals went 9-8.
Burrow played 17 games and put up MVP-like numbers in 2024 and the Bengals went 9-8.

Good players doing well still is better for your team and is a positive influence on W-L.

How does this dispute Trey Hendrickson doesn't have an effect on wins and losses year by year?

Where is the evidence that Trey does impact wins and losses year by year?

Do you think a QB has the same effect on wins and losses as an ED?


I've never argued against good players doing well still is better for your team. I want Trey on the team for just that reason and i stated that in an earlier post. I'm disputing that Trey is going to be the difference in 2 or more wins/losses every year by his presence on the field alone. I know Burrow makes a difference in multiple games every year. A one-off, minus context, doesn't disprove that. I gave context in my argument. Where's the evidence that Trey has the same impact?

[*rfaulk34*]

(Yesterday, 01:38 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't know the W-L, but I do know it's not normally a good sign for a team's success in a season when their offseason is filled with this much drama. Similar but worse feelings as last offseason as far as that goes. It's hard enough to win even when you don't have drama and everyone is all working in the same direction.

I had mentioned before how it felt like a black cloud rolled in right before the opener last year when it was announced Tee was hurt and Chase had been talking about "we'll see" when asked if he's going to play. There seems to be a big reliance on 'we'll turn it on late in the year and make a push'. We've seen that doesn't always work out. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

We need Trey in the fold for me to make an informed prediction at this point.

If Trey is playing and Golden gets this Defense back to tackling well and not giving up near as many explosive plays we should win at
least 11 games this season. Also I think our running game will be better with Peters as the new OL coach along with the additions of
Lucas Patrick, Dylan Fairchild, Perine and Tahj Brooks. Chase Brown should be even better this season as well.

Gesicki should have a much better season now that he has chemistry with Burrow. Expecting for him to get a lot of TD's.

Should be a fun year.