Last 2 Drafts

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-19-2016, 10:53 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Well, i guess if you consider all those guys misses, then so be it.  ANY time you draft a guy that starts and plays well, he is not a miss.  

And I do disagree with your assessment that a backup or rotational player is a miss.  This team has what many experts consider the best 53 man roster from top to bottom.  There's not going to be a lot of room for guys to step in and start.  In the 90s and early 2000s I would agree that those guys would be misses, but when they are sitting behind other 1st rounders and solid players, it's hard to crack the lineup.

I will use Gio as an example. I love Gio, but he's not what you want from the 37th overall pick. A miss doesn't really mean a bust, but it does mean you didn't get what you'd like.

He was the first running back taken in the entire draft. The Bengals had every single one to choose from and they went with Gio. So when Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Latavius Murray, and CJ Anderson are all taken after him and are all better, how can he be a hit?

Who specifically are you arguing against being a miss? Please also use statistical backup as to why you believe they are not a miss (to avoid looking at all these players with orange tinted glasses).

[Hammerstripes]

(01-19-2016, 11:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I will use Gio as an example. I love Gio, but he's not what you want from the 37th overall pick. A miss doesn't really mean a bust, but it does mean you didn't get what you'd like.

He was the first running back taken in the entire draft. The Bengals had every single one to choose from and they went with Gio. So when Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Latavius Murray, and CJ Anderson are all taken after him and are all better, how can he be a hit?

Who specifically are you arguing against being a miss? Please also use statistical backup as to why you believe they are not a miss (to avoid looking at all these players with orange tinted glasses).

I'm certainly not using any orange tinted glasses, but I am looking at them in the context of how they fit into our team.  You can't say just because they haven't accumulated a ton of stats that they are misses.  This team doesn't need rookies or even second year guys to be immediate starters.  Stats don't tell the entire story when it comes to judging these players.

Dre is a starter.  I don't consider him a miss.

Shawn Williams is playing behind a Pro-Bowler and one of the best young safeties in the league.  I don't consider him a miss.

Gio is part of a rotational approach, he isn't a miss.  Just because we took him instead of another guy that is better, doesn't mean he is a miss.  Is every DT drafted before Geno Atkins a miss?  According to your logic, they would be.

Sanu and Thompson are borderline, but they have been productive when they have played.  They are third rounders, getting that kind of contribution out of them is not bad.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-19-2016, 11:13 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I'm certainly not using any orange tinted glasses, but I am looking at them in the context of how they fit into our team.  You can't say just because they haven't accumulated a ton of stats that they are misses.  This team doesn't need rookies or even second year guys to be immediate starters.  Stats don't tell the entire story when it comes to judging these players.

Dre is a starter.  I don't consider him a miss.

Shawn Williams is playing behind a Pro-Bowler and one of the best young safeties in the league.  I don't consider him a miss.

Gio is part of a rotational approach, he isn't a miss.  Just because we took him instead of another guy that is better, doesn't mean he is a miss.  Is every DT drafted before Geno Atkins a miss?  According to your logic, they would be.

Sanu and Thompson are borderline, but they have been productive when they have played.  They are third rounders, getting that kind of contribution out of them is not bad.

-Kirkpatrick was a starter for one year out of four, and he was bad. Now he's either going to be a FA, or will need his 5th year option of like $7.5m picked up. That's a miss. If being a starter was an automatic hit, then Trent Richardson was a hit, Blaine Gabbert was a hit, Christian Ponder was a hit, etc, etc.

-If using a 3rd round pick and getting only 22 tackles back in the first two years isn't a miss, then there's no such thing as a miss in the NFL. Every single draft pick is a hit then.

-No, according to my logic, if the first DT taken in the draft is a rotational guy and there's a bunch of full time starters who were drafted behind him, THEN he's a miss. Not to mention, your example is rather shitty. Suh and McCoy (the 1st and 2nd DTs taken in that draft) were both drafted ahead of Atkins and both have more All-Pros than Atkins does. Nice try in attempting to intentionally twist my point without addressing the fact that Bernard was the first RB taken and ended up being roughly the sixth best RB in the draft.

-There is no way Sanu and Thompson are both borderline.
Sanu 2015: 60.9% of the offensive snap counts... 33 catches, 394 yards, 0 TD  (AKA not productive when playing) If that 60.9% looks like very little for some reason, AJ Green only played 88.3% and Marvin Jones played 85.3%, so Sanu played plenty. He just stinks and actually lost his starting job.
Thompson 2015: If you're a 3rd round pick fourth year player who's a healthy scratch for roughly half the season, you're a miss.

[brian5562]

Gio is not a miss. has put up an average of 1100 yards from and 5 tds a year. Perfect complimentary back and adds versatility to our offense.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-19-2016, 04:46 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: This is accurate. I'd expect a center drafted in the mid rounds to give depth and potentially work for the spot. People forget that Cook was good but an aging Bobbie Williams and bad Nate Livings made life inside hell. 


2016 will be his fifth season but due to injuries and talent on the team only his 2nd starting 

.....but.......but he signed a big deal in Dallas.....

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-19-2016, 09:26 PM)phil413 Wrote: 2015
Ogbuehi- of coarse they'll compete, but they believe he's a top 10 pick without the injury.  Ideally, he becomes a pillar for the next decade on the right.

Fisher- I hope Zampese literally carries the torch from Hue.  They kept him for continuity, I like some of the old school Redskin resets and extreme screen packages with Whit and Fisher outside.  Having that threat is a great plan, even if they use it less it just needs to be worked on more to whittle down illegal formation penalties.  I see Fisher as a great toy to have for another year, 3rd tackle and backup LG if needed, what a luxury.  Then in another year if Whit isn't retained or is moved inside then Fisher's athleticism should be showcased on the blindside.  

Kroft- He's already a capable #2 TE and insurance behind a stud TE with an injury history.  

Dawson- Total wildcard, looked like a solid WLB type coming out of college so he may start there for the 1st 3 games and then move to SLB depending on the competition.  I'd rather they draft a LB prospect early, and if nothing else Dawson's versatility gives him a spot in the rotation.  

Shaw- He could be the S version of Dawson where his versatility and other roster moves could put him in a few different spots.  Ideally, he takes the reigns as the nickleback if given the opportunity.  They should have a vet (either Jones or a FA) to pair with the other two corners, so they could toy with the idea of Shaw more at safety in packages over Williams in some sets.  

Hardison- Should benefit from a redshirt year, should progress to be the guy to give Geno a breather here and there, be an emergency DE or even sit another year if they opt to dress the vets.  

Uzomah- They like his length and even blocking enough that they played him some as a rookie, nice prospect as a 3rd TE.

D. Smith- His height hinders him as a safety, but was a great ST and depth pick.  Makes a lot of sense as a dime back or last active DB.  

Alford- Gets a lot of hype from the board and some coaches.  Should see him more especially if Sanu leaves and they don't draft a slot type.  

2014
Dennard- Shoulder should be ready next year, but they still need another vet to battle him for the starting gig.  Funny enough, due to his (and Dre's) physical style I do worry about Williams long term behind him so until we see more progression from him he's a backup even if we wish he were ready.  

Hill- Oh man I pray for this kid.  I just felt sick for him after the fumble, hopefully he handles this season in a mature way and doesn't try to win a playoff game single handedly every snap after already having issues with thinking too much in the backfield.  The same offense means a lot of Gio and even no-huddle, so Hill will have to make the most out of being the hot hand.  

Clarke- Could already be there with Gilberry at DE by the time camp comes around, his length and punch behind MJ and Dunlap means the opposing tackles never get a break.  Needs to anchor better vs the run if he wants more reps, but could be in the mix still on passing downs.  

Bodine- They're still loyal to him, but they need a backup option no matter if it's TJ, a vet (most likely) or mid-round pick.  Alexander is a technical guy that was handed the bull that he wanted, this is Bodine's time to solidify his job or he will lose it.  

McCarron- What else do you want?  He looked well enough that people are already shooting down Cleveland's high 3rd or even 2nd in a trade for him.  I'm excited to be rooting for one of the very few teams with a capable backup and he's even cheap and young to boot.  

Flowers- Had a year off, but if he makes the roster could see some PT for the 1st 3 games with Burfict out.  Needs to bounce back from the injury as the coverage LB that Lamur wasn't, but the position still needs competition.

Wright- Nice ST guy in the same situation as Flowers, should be on the backend of the WR position but may have a door open to do more.  If one of the FA's leave, they may draft a WR early.  Since WR's sometimes take longer to develop, Wright and a vet could get PT early.

Nice synopsis......I agree with a great deal of this.  Good post.

[PDub80]

I think they absolutely NAILED the 2015 draft. I still grade it as an A+. If there was a higher grade I would go with that.

2014 is looking like an A as well. 2 guys who will be solid contributors for a long time in Dennard and Hill, a starting center (temporarily I hope, see comments on 2016 draft), and AJ Mac who looks to be a starter, great backup, or trade bait at some point. The rest are depth & development and that is what the draft is for when you have a team with as much talent as the Bengals.

2016:

- I hope hope hope hope they get some inside Oline help in the form of a stud center somewhere early.
- I would like to see another CB taken with the ability to return kicks & punts with impact while learning the position on the field.
- WR who is fast and shifty would be great. See ST needs above.
- LB is a HUGE need from a talent standpoint. The Bengals were lucky to be able to keep the same 3 or 4 guys out there for most of the year playing without major injury.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-18-2016, 09:33 PM)brian5562 Wrote: From the 2014 and 2015 NFL Drafts who do you expect big things from next season?

I am hoping Denard can come back healthy and challenge for a starting spot. Excited to get Wright back for special teams and see if he can help at wr. It will be interesting who can earn a starting spot between Fisher and big Cedric.

Yeah, i see Dennard stepping up and being a very good corner very soon.

Good point on James Wright, almost forgot all about him with the injury.

Fisher and Og looked very good for rookies IMO. I have high hopes for these two.

Dawson did not impress me as much as i thought he would, hope he becomes that other playmaker next to Burfict.

Alford needs to be the Returner next season. I like Tate alright but i think it is time to move on from him.

[GreenCornBengal]

(01-20-2016, 03:34 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Dawson did not impress me as much as i thought he would, hope he becomes that other playmaker next to Burfict.

I don't think Dawson was given much playing time to impress. He looked good on special teams to me. I think he will get more of an opportunity next year.

[fredtoast]

(01-19-2016, 10:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: People just say the Bengals tear it up in the draft, so it gets repeated, then repeated later without even looking at how the drafting actually has been. They've not been good in the early rounds the last few years.

Actually I think you expect too much from every single pick.

Gio has only played 3 seasons yet he is tenth in rushing yards among the 28 RBs taken in the second round over the last decade.  The fact that better players were drafted later does not make him a bust.  In 2000 Marc Bulger was taken in the 6th round.  He went to two Pro Bowls and finished in the top 10 in passer rating three times.  Most people would consider that an amazing 6th round pick even though Tom Brady was still on the board when Bulger was taken.

Among the 30 WR drafted in the third round over the last 5 years Sanu is 7th in receptions.

And even though I also see Thompson an underachiever he ranks 9th in sacks (can't do search for tackles) among the 30 DTs taken in the third round over the last 5 years.

Your claim that every player taken in the first three rounds is supposed to be a top contributor just is not realistic.

And remember that I am not trying to show that these were all great picks.  All i am looking at are the guys you consider our worst picks.  If these are the guys you are calling "misses" then our misses are a lot better than all the other teams in the league.

And finally, the fact that we have such a deep and tyalented roster keeps some of our picks on the bench longer than if they had been drafted elsewhere.  You rip Shawn Williams for not starting over Iloka or Nelson, but I doubt you could name a safety taken after him that would have beaten out either one of those guys.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-20-2016, 03:42 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I don't think Dawson was given much playing time to impress. He looked good on special teams to me. I think he will get more of an opportunity next year.

Agreed, i just thought he would end up being our best draft pick from last season especially with
our Linebacker core which is to be honest, average besides Burfict.

The dude i forgot to mention is Josh Shaw who i thought played great as a rookie this year.

Has all the tools, he is physical, fast, good hips and can pick off passes.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-20-2016, 06:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Your claim that every player taken in the first three rounds is supposed to be a top contributor just is not realistic.

Didn't say that they're supposed to all be a top contributor, but it's what NFL teams are looking for in the early rounds. You can be a miss as a second round pick and still be a useful (if mediocre) player.

I'm not calling them all busts, I am calling them misses. With your early picks, you're trying to hit gold as often as possible. I think you're putting too much stock in the word miss. Most draft picks will be misses because if everyone lived up to first or second round status, then they'd all be Pro Bowlers and All-Pros, which isn't realistic.

I still think Shawn Williams can hopefully be a good starter in 2016, it's just that he's been a miss thus far. Gio is a great role player, but you're not looking for role player running backs in the second round. You're looking for the Maurice Jones-Drew, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice (all 2nd round pick RBs since Lewis came here) type running backs. I'm not calling Gio a bust by any means, I am just saying he's a miss. I can't keep a straight face and say he falls into the same category as those RBs who ARE hits.

The Bengals have 1 Pro Bowler in the last 4 years of drafting. Obviously the Pro Bowl isn't the end all-be all measure of success, but still... the Bengals have 1 out of the 46 drafted Pro Bowlers in the last 4 years.

I'm sure there's still some people who think Chase Coffman will make an NFL comeback and become amazing are just lurking around, waiting to say "I told you so!" The same people who will show up if Kirkpatrick finally becomes an above average starter in year 8 of his career, or Sean Porter ever makes an NFL tackle. They're just not all hits. Sometimes busts, sometimes just not living up to expectations.

[fredtoast]

(01-20-2016, 10:09 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Didn't say that they're supposed to all be a top contributor, but it's what NFL teams are looking for in the early rounds. You can be a miss as a second round pick and still be a useful (if mediocre) player.

I'm not calling them all busts, I am calling them misses. With your early picks, you're trying to hit gold as often as possible. I think you're putting too much stock in the word miss. Most draft picks will be misses because if everyone lived up to first or second round status, then they'd all be Pro Bowlers and All-Pros, which isn't realistic.

I still think Shawn Williams can hopefully be a good starter in 2016, it's just that he's been a miss thus far. Gio is a great role player, but you're not looking for role player running backs in the second round. You're looking for the Maurice Jones-Drew, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice (all 2nd round pick RBs since Lewis came here) type running backs. I'm not calling Gio a bust by any means, I am just saying he's a miss. I can't keep a straight face and say he falls into the same category as those RBs who ARE hits.

The Bengals have 1 Pro Bowler in the last 4 years of drafting. Obviously the Pro Bowl isn't the end all-be all measure of success, but still... the Bengals have 1 out of the 46 drafted Pro Bowlers in the last 4 years.

I'm sure there's still some people who think Chase Coffman will make an NFL comeback and become amazing are just lurking around, waiting to say "I told you so!" The same people who will show up if Kirkpatrick finally becomes an above average starter in year 8 of his career, or Sean Porter ever makes an NFL tackle. They're just not all hits. Sometimes busts, sometimes just not living up to expectations.

You are still lacking perspective.  The Bnegals don't have to have a hit on every single pick to be one of the best drafting teams.  All they have to do is have more hits and fewer misses than most other teams.

You post numbers comparing the Bengals to the combined picks of 31 other teams.  No team would look good in this type of analysis.

And sometimes you do not even use the other 31 teams picks.  For example you call Shawn Williams a "miss" but you can't name a bett safety taken by ANY team after him.  Shawn has been kept on the bench because he has great players in front of him.  Based on your logic Aaron Rodgers was a "miss".

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-20-2016, 11:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are still lacking perspective.  The Bnegals don't have to have a hit on every single pick to be one of the best drafting teams.  All they have to do is have more hits and fewer misses than most other teams.

You post numbers comparing the Bengals to the combined picks of 31 other teams.  No team would look good in this type of analysis.

And sometimes you do not even use the other 31 teams picks.  For example you call Shawn Williams a "miss" but you can't name a bett safety taken by ANY team after him.  Shawn has been kept on the bench because he has great players in front of him.  Based on your logic Aaron Rodgers was a "miss".

I can't?

-Shawn Williams: 54 tackles, 5 Pdef, 2 INT

...taken after him in that draft...

-Barcarri Rambo: 109 tackles, 2 sacks, 8 Pdef, 3 INT, 2 FF
-Kemal Ishmael: 144 tackles, 9 Pdef, 5 INT, 1 FF
-Josh Evans: 201 tackles, 5 Pdef, 1 FF
-Duron Harmon: 63 tackles, 10 Pdef, 6 INT

- - - - - - - - - -
2015 Playoff Teams by Pro Bowlers drafted in the last 4 years:

4: Panthers
3: Vikings, Chiefs, Seahawks
2: Redskins, Patriots, Steelers, Cardinals
1: Texans, Packers, Bengals
0: Broncos

The Bengals have NOT been among the best drafters the last four years. You can't even say "They win, so their guys can't get starting jobs." Other winning teams still have found Pro Bowl players to help them in the draft.
- - - - - - - - - - -

...Are you seriously arguing that Shawn Williams, Dre Kirkpatrick, or Darqueze Dennard is going to be Aaron Rodgers? Way to choose the most unlikely thing to happen and try to argue for it to happen for 4 years of draft picks.

Maybe you also think McCarron will be Brady.

[Hammerstripes]

The Bengals haven't been good drafters?

# of offensive starters drafted by the team - 11 (that seems pretty good)
# of defensive starters drafted by the team - 9 (shoot, that seems pretty good as well) That doesn't include Burfict who was undrafted.

So, I'm still struggling to figure out why we haven't been a good drafting team when 20/22 starters were drafted by the Bengals and they've been to the playoffs 5 straight years and finished 12-4 this year. You can throw out all the stats you want, but that is by far the most telling of them all.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-21-2016, 12:22 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: The Bengals haven't been good drafters?

# of offensive starters drafted by the team - 11 (that seems pretty good)
# of defensive starters drafted by the team - 9 (shoot, that seems pretty good as well)  That doesn't include Burfict who was undrafted.

So, I'm still struggling to figure out why we haven't been a good drafting team when 20/22 starters were drafted by the Bengals and they've been to the playoffs 5 straight years and finished 12-4 this year.  You can throw out all the stats you want, but that is by far the most telling of them all.

First off, your defense number is downright wrong. If you're not including Burfict, it'd be 7, not 9. Adam Jones, Reggie Nelson, AJ Hawk, and Burfict... all not drafted by the Bengals. Of course, then if you are not counting Burfict, then we can't count Ryan Hewitt either, who was undrafted. So that'd put your number at 10 on offense. So 17/22.

Either way, it's a mood point, because we're not talking about drafting all time, or drafting in the last decade. I'm talking the last four years haven't been that great.

Plus, starters? That is a crazy bad measurement of being a good drafter. The Jags drafted and started Blaine Gabbert, the Jets drafted and started Geno Smith, the Bengals drafted and started Akili Smith. That doesn't mean that those were good draft picks. The last time the Broncos drafted a Pro Bowl player was in 2011, but they were the #1 seed. That doesn't make them great drafters.

[fredtoast]

(01-21-2016, 12:04 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: - - - - - - - - - -
2015 Playoff Teams by Pro Bowlers drafted in the last 4 years:

4: Panthers
3: Vikings, Chiefs, Seahawks
2: Redskins, Patriots, Steelers, Cardinals
1: Texans, Packers, Bengals
0: Broncos

The Bengals have NOT been among the best drafters the last four years. You can't even say "They win, so their guys can't get starting jobs." Other winning teams still have found Pro Bowl players to help them in the draft.

Cherry picking.  Why just the last four years?  Couldn't possibly have anything to do with the fact that if you went back 6 years we would have FIVE more Pro bowl players.

[brian5562]

Pro bowls are one measurement how about starters drafted in the last 4 years?

[fredtoast]

(01-21-2016, 12:04 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I can't?

-Shawn Williams: 54 tackles, 5 Pdef, 2 INT

...taken after him in that draft...

-Barcarri Rambo: 109 tackles, 2 sacks, 8 Pdef, 3 INT, 2 FF
-Kemal Ishmael: 144 tackles, 9 Pdef, 5 INT, 1 FF
-Josh Evans: 201 tackles, 5 Pdef, 1 FF
-Duron Harmon: 63 tackles, 10 Pdef, 6 INT

None of those guys would have started in front of Nelson or Iloka.

Nelson: 164 tackles, 34 PD, 14 int
Iloka: 128 tackles, 20 PD, 5 int

[fredtoast]

(01-21-2016, 12:04 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: ...Are you seriously arguing that Shawn Williams, Dre Kirkpatrick, or Darqueze Dennard is going to be Aaron Rodgers?

No.  I am just showing how faulty your logic is.

You can not deny that based on your logic Aaron Rodgers would have been labeled a "miss".