Can Andy and the Bengals finally win a playoff game?

[WhoDeyWho]

In the past 6 playoff games prior to Lewis' tenure the Bengals defense accumulated 13 TOs.

13 - 2

[*Nately120*]

(07-11-2015, 11:48 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: This is how I feel about it.  If the defense has carried Dalton the last 4 years, why can't they do it in the playoffs as well?  A timely turnover or 2 can completely turn a football game.  2 in 6 games tells me that the defense also under performs when the playoffs comes around as well.     

I know what you mean, but I have to wonder (given Dalton's playoff numbers) what makes people think the defense getting a turnover and giving the ball to Dalton would result in anything good.

[djs7685]

This board has some wacky logic on both "sides".

I feel like some people think if they give the offense the blame it deserves, that somehow it will be them going against their favorite QB in the world.

On the other side, people are hoping the Andy nuthuggers will give in that he has been the sole problem in the playoffs.

In reality, the offense has clearly been worse than the defense in 2 of the 4 most recent games. The defense was embarrassing in Indy and not good in Houston 1. This doesn't mean Andy sucks and needs to leave town, but it would be nice if his homers on here would admit the offense (not Andy) has been historically bad in almost every playoff game.

If you look at the play by play of the Chargers and Houston 2 game and you don't think the offense was obviously worse than the defense, you may want to just check yourself right in to some kind of Bengals offense lovers anonymous group.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-11-2015, 09:37 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Shake,

Lets stop theorizing and lets cover what actually happened in the SD game....

Defensively

1st half, D gives up 7 points.

2nd half, D gives up 7 points UNTIL.... back to back to back turnovers midway through the 3rd quarter by Andy Dalton. Two of which are on extremely short fields - the other on the 50. The D still only gives up two field goals from that. The offense.... rudderless and dead in the water.
The chargers long rushing TD came in garbage time when the game was over and had no baring on the outcome whatsoever.

And you want to dish out any sort of blame on the D for that game? You want to say that what the offense did, more specifically Andy Dalton, did not influence the defense? Come on, dude.

I already broke down the two Texans games in detail. Want me to do it again? It's virtually the same story, man: D gives up 7 or 10 points in the first half, AD goes on a pants crapping streak.... Bengals lose.

PDub80,

You're missing the point. If the defense fell apart after a couple turnovers by the QB, they are mentally weak and that's on them. There are literally thousands of examples of defenses playing well despite multiple turnovers by the QB. I'm not sure how any NFL fan wouldn't realize this.

Heck, the week before the Chargers game, Dalton threw 4 int's vs the Ravens. How did the defense fare that week? They harassed Flacco with 2 sacks and multiple hurries. They picked off Flacco 3 times. They held the Ravens to 222 total yards (47 rushing). They held the Ravens to 4/15 on 3rd downs.

By your logic, they should've just fallen apart. After all, the QB had a bad game, and any time the QB has a bad game, we can't expect the defense to play well.   

But not only did our D play well, they were outstanding. 

As for your play-by-play, the D allowed 6 points off of turnovers (including Gio's fumble). Kudos to them for that. But they allowed 21 points that weren't off of turnovers. They allowed 199 rush yards. Rivers carved them up on the first drive of the 2nd half (before Dalton's turnovers). The Bengals were down 10 with 2:27 left when Ronnie Brown hit that long TD. Whether that was "garbage time" is debatable. I doubt the Packers or Seahawks would consider that to be garbage time. And lets be honest, if Dalton threw an INT in the same situation, you guys would most definitely be counting it. 

Now that I've responded to your point, respond to mine. 

- What about the thousands of examples of defenses playing well despite a poor performance by the QB? 
- Why do you give our defense a pass when so many defenses have played well (including ours) in similar situations. 
- What about last year, when the QB threw 0 int, yet our defense gave up a season high in pass yardage and 140 yards to a 3rd string RB?

[RoyleRedlegs]

(07-11-2015, 12:32 PM)djs7685 Wrote: This board has some wacky logic on both "sides".

I feel like some people think if they give the offense the blame it deserves, that somehow it will be them going against their favorite QB in the world.

On the other side, people are hoping the Andy nuthuggers will give in that he has been the sole problem in the playoffs.

In reality, the offense has clearly been worse than the defense in 2 of the 4 most recent games. The defense was embarrassing in Indy and not good in Houston 1. This doesn't mean Andy sucks and needs to leave town, but it would be nice if his homers on here would admit the offense (not Andy) has been historically bad in almost every playoff game.

If you look at the play by play of the Chargers and Houston 2 game and you don't think the offense was obviously worse than the defense, you may want to just check yourself right in to some kind of Bengals offense lovers anonymous group.

We've been a defensively oriented team since 2011. 
We are designed to win through our defense. 
Throttle opponents with our defense and finish them on offense. 

The defense SHOULD be better than the offense. The defense SHOULD be good enough to win a close playoff game. 
That is how we are built to be. For whatever reason, they aren't. They crumble just like every other player on this team does. Except Leon Hall, he's cool. 

[Shake n Blake]

(07-11-2015, 12:32 PM)djs7685 Wrote: This board has some wacky logic on both "sides".

I feel like some people think if they give the offense the blame it deserves, that somehow it will be them going against their favorite QB in the world.

On the other side, people are hoping the Andy nuthuggers will give in that he has been the sole problem in the playoffs.

In reality, the offense has clearly been worse than the defense in 2 of the 4 most recent games. The defense was embarrassing in Indy and not good in Houston 1. This doesn't mean Andy sucks and needs to leave town, but it would be nice if his homers on here would admit the offense (not Andy) has been historically bad in almost every playoff game.

If you look at the play by play of the Chargers and Houston 2 game and you don't think the offense was obviously worse than the defense, you may want to just check yourself right in to some kind of Bengals offense lovers anonymous group.

The offense has been terrible in every playoff game. Happy? I've never defended the performance of Andy Dalton or this offense in the playoffs. You should know that.

My argument is not a defense of the the offense. I just think it's silly to not hold the defense accountable for their own performance. Especially when the defense has been so bad in pretty much all 6 playoff games, and the problems have been nearly identical in each game.

[djs7685]

(07-11-2015, 01:52 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: We've been a defensively oriented team since 2011. 
We are designed to win through our defense. 
Throttle opponents with our defense and finish them on offense. 

The defense SHOULD be better than the offense. The defense SHOULD be good enough to win a close playoff game. 
That is how we are built to be. For whatever reason, they aren't. They crumble just like every other player on this team does. Except Leon Hall, he's cool. 

(07-11-2015, 01:56 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The offense has been terrible in every playoff game. Happy? I've never defended the performance of Andy Dalton or this offense in the playoffs. You should know that.

My argument is not a defense of the the offense. I just think it's silly to not hold the defense accountable for their own performance. Especially when the defense has been so bad in pretty much all 6 playoff games, and the problems have been nearly identical in each game.

I think the defense needs held accountable, but I'm just not so sure they've been as bad as people are claiming.

Sure, if you just say "they've averaged X against the run each game!" then it looks much worse than it really is. Go play-by-play in these games.

7 out of 11 San Diego drives ended with 10 or less total yards. People say that the defense "didn't make enough big plays", but...really?! The defense holds them to SEVEN drives of 10 or less yards, and nobody considers that making big plays?! I'm sorry, but that's where I'm losing track of where people are coming from bashing the defense for every game. Yes, the 2 different 80 yard drives by San Diego were awful for the D, but let's not pretend that defenses are going to be absolutely perfect, no matter how good they are.

Some of the best defenses of all time have given up a couple long drives, it DOES happen. When your defense is stopping the other team 7/11 times for less than 10 total yards? That's extremely impressive. People are really underselling the defense from San Diego just because of a poor drive or two. Overall, they weren't nearly as bad as most will claim. The defense WAS our strong point in 2013, and even with a couple of our best players out, we shut down the Chargers completely on over half of their drives. They gave up a whopping 28 total yards on 4 drives in the first half other than the long 86 yarder that SD put together. I can't believe some will say they were worrying about our team giving up 3 or 4 yard runs in the first half when it happened on ONE out of FIVE drives.

The 2nd Houston game was a bit different of a story. They gave up big chunks of yards throughout, but they did a good job keeping the score down. It reminded me a lot of the Bengals D in a lot of 2014. Giving up big chunks of yards isn't good, but you still win the game by keeping points off the board which they did. The offense was laughable in this game. With about 10 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, do you know how many yards our offense had? About 52....hahahahaha, seriously. 52 yards.

I think a lot of us are on the same page, most of us are blaming the TEAM and not just a couple single players. It has definitely been a ton of team losses, but I'm just saying I feel the offense (not Andy) deserves about 70% of that blame for 2 of those games. If you want to talk about embarrassingly bad defense, we can break down the Indy game, that was BAD. The offense was playing All-Stars like Cobi Hamilton and Rex Burkhead, so you'd think they would have been the weak link in that game, right? LOL, wrong. When you get shredded by Dan Herron, you're gonna have a bad time. Foster ran all over us in 2011 too, so that's another big stinker from the D.

I don't want you guys to think I'm deflecting from the defense or anything, I just want to put in perspective that each side of the ball ****** us on a couple different occasions, and it wasn't necessarily the defense being THAT bad in all 4 games, just 2 of them. As I said in the other posts though, it's not just Andy, it's Gio, Marvin, A.J., Sanu, Jones, Cook, Zeitler, Gresham, Gruden, and anyone else involved on that side of the ball. I put more emphasis on the offense because I think they honestly deserve it.

[Bengalholic]

(07-11-2015, 12:32 PM)djs7685 Wrote: This board has some wacky logic on both "sides".

I feel like some people think if they give the offense the blame it deserves, that somehow it will be them going against their favorite QB in the world.

On the other side, people are hoping the Andy nuthuggers will give in that he has been the sole problem in the playoffs.

In reality, the offense has clearly been worse than the defense in 2 of the 4 most recent games. The defense was embarrassing in Indy and not good in Houston 1. This doesn't mean Andy sucks and needs to leave town, but it would be nice if his homers on here would admit the offense (not Andy) has been historically bad in almost every playoff game.

If you look at the play by play of the Chargers and Houston 2 game and you don't think the offense was obviously worse than the defense, you may want to just check yourself right in to some kind of Bengals offense lovers anonymous group.

In the 2nd Texans game, the offense was embarrassingly putrid and completely overmatched by the Texans D. There's no doubt that their inability to stay on the field left the D on the field more than they should have been. 


You know what else left the D on the field too long? Schaub completing almost 80% of his passes, Foster going off for a buck forty, and the Texans converting 50% of their 3rd downs. 

[Millhouse]

Can AD & the Bengals win a playoff game? Yes.

What will it take? A healthy roster of the starters will help a ton for starters, and then a combination of good enough coaching & of course players executing without choking.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-11-2015, 04:09 PM)djs7685 Wrote: I think the defense needs held accountable, but I'm just not so sure they've been as bad as people are claiming.

Sure, if you just say "they've averaged X against the run each game!" then it looks much worse than it really is. Go play-by-play in these games.

7 out of 11 San Diego drives ended with 10 or less total yards. People say that the defense "didn't make enough big plays", but...really?! The defense holds them to SEVEN drives of 10 or less yards, and nobody considers that making big plays?! I'm sorry, but that's where I'm losing track of where people are coming from bashing the defense for every game. Yes, the 2 different 80 yard drives by San Diego were awful for the D, but let's not pretend that defenses are going to be absolutely perfect, no matter how good they are.

The only thing i'll add about this is; in the first half, the Chargers scored on 1 of 5 possessions. A TD. 
In the second half, they scored on 4 of 6 possessions. 2 TDs, 2 FGs. 

People point to the Dalton turnovers, and while i don't like them a bit...SD scored a TD after the 1st (fumble), a FG after the 2nd (int to the bengals 3 yd line) and they punted after the 3rd (2nd int). 

I can't come up with any valid reasons why the defense played so bad in the 2nd half other than they were bad.

[djs7685]

(07-11-2015, 04:16 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In the 2nd Texans game, the offense was embarrassingly putrid and completely overmatched by the Texans D. There's no doubt that their inability to stay on the field left the D on the field more than they should have been. 


You know what else left the D on the field too long? Schaub completing almost 80% of his passes, Foster going off for a buck forty, and the Texans converting 50% of their 3rd downs. 

Was the defense amazing? No, but they still only gave up 19 total points.

For some reason, I tend to think 19 points given up is a lot more impressive than 52 total yards until 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and ZERO offensive points in the entire game.

Zero, nada, zilch, none. No points on offense.

If the offense isn't even a little bit more to blame than the defense in that game, then I'm not so sure this is an objective discussion on both sides. I've said it plenty of times in this thread, the defense never really had a game where they took over to win, I admit that. However, I do expect an offense to score more than ZERO points in a game. If you want to try and bring up a game where it's closer to 50/50 blame for the offense/defense, the 2012 Texans game probably isn't your best bet. I have no problem throwing the defense under the bus in 2011 and 2014, but I'm not so sure about the 2 others.

[djs7685]

(07-11-2015, 04:39 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The only thing i'll add about this is; in the first half, the Chargers scored on 1 of 5 possessions. A TD. 
In the second half, they scored on 4 of 6 possessions. 2 TDs, 2 FGs. 

People point to the Dalton turnovers, and while i don't like them a bit...SD scored a TD after the 1st (fumble), a FG after the 2nd (int to the bengals 3 yd line) and they punted after the 3rd (2nd int). 

I can't come up with any valid reasons why the defense played so bad in the 2nd half other than they were bad.

Huh?

In the second half, the defense gave up an 80 yard drive (really bad), then a 40 yard drive off a turnover (FG off a 40 yard drive, not the worst thing to happen), then another FG, but the defense held them to NEGATIVE 2 yards before that FG. How much better do you want them to play on that drive after an INT? Then they held the SD offense to a 3 and out. The next SD drive was basically garbage time where they held them to another 3 and out, but I won't even consider that great since it was obviously going to be run, run, run. Then came the big Ronnie Brown run, yet again, in garbage time.

The Bengals D played a great first half in that game, absolutely great minus the one drive, but I think we can let that slide when you consider 28 total yards otherwise. In the second half, were they really as bad as you're claiming? I don't think so.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-11-2015, 04:52 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Huh?

In the second half, the defense gave up an 80 yard drive (really bad), then a 40 yard drive off a turnover (FG off a 40 yard drive, not the worst thing to happen), then another FG, but the defense held them to NEGATIVE 2 yards before that FG. How much better do you want them to play on that drive after an INT? Then they held the SD offense to a 3 and out. The next SD drive was basically garbage time where they held them to another 3 and out, but I won't even consider that great since it was obviously going to be run, run, run. Then came the big Ronnie Brown run, yet again, in garbage time.

The Bengals D played a great first half in that game, absolutely great minus the one drive, but I think we can let that slide when you consider 28 total yards otherwise. In the second half, were they really as bad as you're claiming? I don't think so.

I would say the 80 yd drive and the 58 yard run were "really bad"s. Garbage time or not. 20 points in a half, let alone the 2nd half--at home--are really bad. Only giving up 10 pts off 3 turnovers was a big positive in keeping the game somewhat in hand. The offense did nothing to contribute positively in the 2nd half (as usual) but that doesn't excuse the defense giving up 20 in the half. 

I'm not placing them higher than the offense in terms of accountability. They both crapped the bed. But i'm not giving the defense any excuses either.

[PDub80]

(07-11-2015, 05:26 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I would say the 80 yd drive and the 58 yard run were "really bad"s. Garbage time or not. 20 points in a half, let alone the 2nd half--at home--are really bad. Only giving up 10 pts off 3 turnovers was a big positive in keeping the game somewhat in hand. The offense did nothing to contribute positively in the 2nd half (as usual) but that doesn't excuse the defense giving up 20 in the half. 

I'm not placing them higher than the offense in terms of accountability. They both crapped the bed. But i'm not giving the defense any excuses either.

I was at the SD playoff game. That long TD run had nothing to do with the outcome of the game. Everyone in the stadium knew it was over and the clock was a formality. I can't ding the D for that as it didn't matter and was so late in the game. The D was on the field so much the 2nd half it was unreasonable. Keep in mind, the Chargers had the the ball for basically 4 straight possessions in the 3rd quarter.

14 points off of normal drives. 2 field goals off of 4 turn overs. And a long, meaningless TD run with 3 mins to go. That is a tough defense that kept the team in the game but got hung out to dry in the middle of the 3rd.

[*Nately120*]

I slapped this together by transposing data from wikipedia (so I may have made more than 0 human errors in transfer) but I wanted to look at the net points for the offense and defense in each game to see how many points out offense really scores per game and how many the defense gives up.  I also included the total yards given up for each defensive failure and highlighted what seemed to be to be the "short fields" set up by a turnover (mostly likely...not 100% sure).  I gave the offense a -7 for the pick six Dalton threw in 2011 and gave the defense a +7 for the pick six Hall had in 2012.

So, if my math is correct (feel free to double-check) our offense is good for 7.25 points per game and the defense gives up -22.5 per game.  I realize this is a specific set of circumstances, but 7.25 points per game means if the Bengals in the playoffs from 2011 were a 16-game team they would probably have the worst NFL offense in generations (this is speculation, but it's really bad).  So, it seems the defense plays at a below average level but the offense is the pits in the playoffs.  Honestly, the data here leads me to conclude the issue is the offense by a mile.  Especially in 2012 where our defense had a net -12 to our offenses net 6...our defense outscored the offense.  That's not good.  At all. I think the 85 Bears' defense could carry this offense to a win, but other than that we may as well throw in the towel.
Questions?  Comments?  Corrections?

[Bengalholic]

(07-11-2015, 04:47 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Was the defense amazing? No, but they still only gave up 19 total points.

For some reason, I tend to think 19 points given up is a lot more impressive than 52 total yards until 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and ZERO offensive points in the entire game.

Zero, nada, zilch, none. No points on offense.

If the offense isn't even a little bit more to blame than the defense in that game, then I'm not so sure this is an objective discussion on both sides. I've said it plenty of times in this thread, the defense never really had a game where they took over to win, I admit that. However, I do expect an offense to score more than ZERO points in a game. If you want to try and bring up a game where it's closer to 50/50 blame for the offense/defense, the 2012 Texans game probably isn't your best bet. I have no problem throwing the defense under the bus in 2011 and 2014, but I'm not so sure about the 2 others.

Some seem to be fixated on whether the offense or defense deserves slightly more blame for each of the losses. To me, it's like arguing about which end of the same turd stinks more.

The truth is, that neither side has played well enough. Both sides have crumbled when it mattered most. At this point, I honestly don't care about percentages of blame...because the entire team, including the HC and his staff, have played their part in the record setting playoff failures.

I will say though...I hope like hell that they can finally win a postseason game, or 2, or 3 this year...because I would much rather be debating who is most responsible for a playoff "win" for a change!

[Shake n Blake]

(07-11-2015, 05:26 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I would say the 80 yd drive and the 58 yard run were "really bad"s. Garbage time or not. 20 points in a half, let alone the 2nd half--at home--are really bad. Only giving up 10 pts off 3 turnovers was a big positive in keeping the game somewhat in hand. The offense did nothing to contribute positively in the 2nd half (as usual) but that doesn't excuse the defense giving up 20 in the half. 

I'm not placing them higher than the offense in terms of accountability. They both crapped the bed. But i'm not giving the defense any excuses either.

This pretty much sums it up for me when it comes to the SD game. Which is just one of six games where the defense has given up 150+ rushing yards, a 90+ passer rating with very few sacks or turnovers to speak of.

(07-11-2015, 11:34 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Some seem to be fixated on whether the offense or defense deserves slightly more blame for each of the losses. To me, it's like arguing about which end of the same turd stinks more.

The truth is, that neither side has played well enough. Both sides have crumbled when it mattered most. At this point, I honestly don't care about percentages of blame...because the entire team, including the HC and his staff, have played their part in the record setting playoff failures.

I will say though...I hope like hell that they can finally win a postseason game, or 2, or 3 this year...because I would much rather be debating who is most responsible for a playoff "win" for a change!

Agreed. The offense has been worse overall, no doubt. The only exceptions are (maybe) the Colts game or the first Texans game. In those 2 games both sides were flat out embarrassing. The point isn't that the defense has been worse, it's that the defense has also been a disappointment. Maybe not to the level that the offense has, but it's still been pretty bad.

There is no excusing the overall numbers the defense has put up. They've never stopped the run, they've never made a QB look bad, they have 5 sacks and 2 forced turnovers total in all 6 games combined. That would average out to 13 sacks and 5 turnovers for a full 16 game season. Those would be historically bad numbers. This from a defense that's either been top 8 overall or led the NFL in forced turnovers (2005). 

I find it interesting that so many people aren't concerned about that.

[*Nately120*]

(07-11-2015, 11:34 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Some seem to be fixated on whether the offense or defense deserves slightly more blame for each of the losses. To me, it's like arguing about which end of the same turd stinks more.

I disagree.  The offense scores an average of 7.25 points PER GAME.  Show me a team that has a defense than can overcome that.  Our defense in the playoffs was bad (except in 2012 where it gave up 19 and scored 7 and the offense contributed a whopping 6 points of it's own), but the offense has been dreadful.

Show me a team that scores 7.25 points per game and I'll show you a team that is winless.  We may as well have have a pee-wee league's defense show up if that's all the offense is going to do. Our defense OUTSCORED our offense in 2012 and we lost. I suppose that was "everyone's fault" too. Feh.

[Bengalholic]

(07-12-2015, 01:03 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Our defense OUTSCORED our offense in 2012 and we lost. I suppose that was "everyone's fault" too. Feh.

Yep, it was an absolutely pathetic and embarrassing performance by the offense. But, you conveniently left out the fact that the D allowed Schaub to complete almost 80% of his passes, allowed 158 yards rushing, got owned by Owen Daniels, couldn't get any real pressure and played soft in coverage for much of the game.

If you want to say the offense stunk up the joint, I'm right there with you. But, if you're saying the D didn't get pushed around and outplayed by Houston's offense, then we definitely see things differently.

[*Nately120*]

(07-12-2015, 02:21 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yep, it was an absolutely pathetic and embarrassing performance by the offense. But, you conveniently left out the fact that the D allowed Schaub to complete almost 80% of his passes, allowed 158 yards rushing, got owned by Owen Daniels, couldn't get any real pressure and played soft in coverage for much of the game.

If you want to say the offense stunk up the joint, I'm right there with you. But, if you're saying the D didn't get pushed around and outplayed by Houston's offense, then we definitely see things differently.

The offense scored 7.25 points per game.  I don't care if Matt Schlub completes 100% of his passes.  7 points and change hain't gonna win unless you're the 85 Bears or the game is played in the 1930s.

The defense stunk...except in 2012 when it outscored the offense. Remember that? Yea, we lost that game with a defense that gave up a net of 12 points. You know what kind of offense can't score more than 12 points? A 32nd ranked offense. And a defense that gives up 12? That's pretty good, if not the best.

Yep, it's a single game, but the more I look at the numbers the less fair it seems to just throw your hands and say "It's all bad!" because it's not ALL bad.