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(11-09-2022, 12:05 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think it depends on AZ and NV. AZ looks safe-ish for the democrats, but NV is still up in the air but the betting markets are leaning D on that one at the moment.
The PA seat flipped from R to D, so that could open the door to the GA runoff being for a 50/50 or 51/49 and either way the republicans are behind the ball....I think.
And yes to a republican house, but they didn't get the red wave bloodbath one would historically and unpopular Biden-ly expect.
I definitely think the abortion thing threw cold water on the red wave, and my cynical side believes Democrats loved and Republicans hated the decision. Most are in it for the power.
“History teaches that grave threats to liberty often come in times of urgency, when constitutional rights seem too extravagant to endure.”-Thurgood Marshall
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(11-09-2022, 12:35 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I definitely think the abortion thing threw cold water on the red wave, and my cynical side believes Democrats loved and Republicans hated the decision. Most are in it for the power.
I hear ya on that one, and in the same line the GOP knows the more miserable life is for the next 2 years the more likely they are to get back in the white house. They have no incesntive, outside of actually caring about the voters, to make things anything but worse.
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(11-09-2022, 12:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, credible predictions of a red wave dissipated months ago. The abortion decision really halted Republican favoritism. The House will go red but the Senate is favored to go blue at this point. If NV is blue, then it is essentially guaranteed that the Senate will be Democrat. Arizona is favored to be Democrat, so that is the reasoning. They just need to win AZ and NV to call the Senate race.
I don't think most of it matters outside of bragging rights. Republicans controlling one house is enough, and Republicans controlling two houses means nothing with a veto always looming.
“History teaches that grave threats to liberty often come in times of urgency, when constitutional rights seem too extravagant to endure.”-Thurgood Marshall
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(11-09-2022, 12:35 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I definitely think the abortion thing threw cold water on the red wave, and my cynical side believes Democrats loved and Republicans hated the decision. Most are in it for the power.
Yeah, abortion rights are really popular across party lines. I have mentioned several stories about my MIL, but she is the most conservative person that I know. Bible thumping Christian woman, straight ticket Republican voter, and she was not happy about the decision. Kentucky just rejected the abortion amendment on their state constitution and it wasn't even close. It definitely hurt the Republicans from a public opinion standpoint.
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(11-09-2022, 12:41 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, abortion rights are really popular across party lines. I have mentioned several stories about my MIL, but she is the most conservative person that I know. Bible thumping Christian woman, straight ticket Republican voter, and she was not happy about the decision. Kentucky just rejected the abortion amendment on their state constitution and it wasn't even close. It definitely hurt the Republicans from a public opinion standpoint.
I would think, and I'm sure there is an error here, that the Republicans could let ten moderates move over in the Senate and vote for cloture on some sort of abortion law and get it passed before the new Congress. Get it off your back.
“History teaches that grave threats to liberty often come in times of urgency, when constitutional rights seem too extravagant to endure.”-Thurgood Marshall
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(11-09-2022, 12:47 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I would think, and I'm sure there is an error here, that the Republicans could let ten moderates move over in the Senate and vote for cloture on some sort of abortion law and get it passed before the new Congress. Get it off your back.
LOL
It's almost like you remember how America used to work and be functionable before our choice of cable news decided how we feel about things.
Only users lose drugs.
:-)-~~~
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(11-09-2022, 01:07 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: LOL
It's almost like you remember how America used to work and be functionable before our choice of cable news decided how we feel about things.
Yeah I guess, but it just seems logical. It's going to be hanging around their neck until until it's gone. They don't even have to vote yes, just vote for cloture.
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In PA Oz conceded the race to Fetterman, but despite losing by double digits Mastriano hasn't conceded to Shapiro. I predicted this, but it was pretty obvious, too.
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(11-09-2022, 01:55 PM)Nately120 Wrote: In PA Oz conceded the race to Fetterman, but despite losing by double digits Mastriano hasn't conceded to Shapiro. I predicted this, but it was pretty obvious, too.
Think there was some form of relief on Oz' part, he would have been reviled even by many who ended up voting for him because of the NJ ties.
Amazing he and Mastriano were the cream that rose to the GOP top and became candidates... Mastriano is on another cosmic plane.
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(11-09-2022, 02:56 PM)Vas Deferens Wrote: Think there was some form of relief on Oz' part, he would have been reviled even by many who ended up voting for him because of the NJ ties.
Amazing he and Mastriano were the cream that rose to the GOP top and became candidates... Mastriano is on another cosmic plane.
Well, I think a reasonable GOP candidate beats Fetterman though Shapiro seemed pretty safe/popular to me. Trump had his pawprints all over this 0-2 night, so the GOP may be looking in the mirror soon.
Maybe.
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So Arizona is saying that they will have their votes counted at 99 percent by Fri. Georgia will be a likely run off. Nevada's time line I'm not sure.
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(11-09-2022, 03:11 PM)Goalpost Wrote: So Arizona is saying that they will have their votes counted at 99 percent by Fri. Georgia will be a likely run off. Nevada's time line I'm not sure.
538 just posted this update on NV.
RYAN BEST
NOV. 9, 1:04 PM
[/url]
The Nevada Senate race is still really close, with Republican candidate Adam Laxalt holding between a 2- and 3-point lead over Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. But it looks like there are more Democratic votes left to be counted than Republican ones — especially regarding mail-in ballots, which Nevada accepts as long as they were postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Nov. 12. So we expect this race to tighten a bit, but it may take some time to know by exactly how much. Like we mentioned in [url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-election-results-2022/]our guide to poll closing times and vote counting, results in Nevada may continue to roll in until Nov. 15.
![[Image: screen_shot_2022-11-09_at_1.01.27_pm.png]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/screen_shot_2022-11-09_at_1.01.27_pm.png)
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There was a large upswing in young people voting and they went overwhelmingly Democratic. This group is often underrepresented in polling
Fueled by the pursuit of greatness.
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I just got the mail and there was a "don't vote for Fetterman" flyer in it. Just in time, eh?
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Georgia has scheduled a news conference at 2. With 98 percent counted, many believe the 2 percent remaining could be mail in ballots, which could hurt Walker. I don't know if that small percent could get Warnock to 50 percent. But Georgia officials are expected to clarify it better. Some have already said that a run off is inevitable but there remains still some uncertainty.
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Georgia's Secretary of State now says it will be a run off.
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(11-09-2022, 03:50 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Georgia's Secretary of State now says it will be a run off.
That seemed inevitable. If dems can win the NV and AZ seats as they are projected it'll keep that race from being the deciding factor. The idea of Warnock/Walker going another month and having that much gravity would be hard to bear.
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(11-09-2022, 02:59 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Well, I think a reasonable GOP candidate beats Fetterman though Shapiro seemed pretty safe/popular to me. Trump had his pawprints all over this 0-2 night, so the GOP may be looking in the mirror soon.
Maybe.
Anytime I thought Ohio had some bad choices in the election, I realize PA had a carpetbagger talk show snakeoil doctor going against a recent stroke victim.
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(11-09-2022, 04:49 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Anytime I thought Ohio had some bad choices in the election, I realize PA had a carpetbagger talk show snakeoil doctor going against a recent stroke victim.
Fetterman might recover from what ails him, but I think someone like Oz needs to be visited by multiple ghosts before he has a change of heart.
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(11-09-2022, 08:48 AM)michaelsean Wrote: The way I read it, it’s saying nothing in the Kentucky constitution is to be construed to say abortion is a right so it would be up to the legislature.
I hope so but me and my friend have been discussing it since last night.
I can’t wait to see the hell fire on Facebook if it becomes illegal.
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