Biden's Economic policies are a plus

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 11:38 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I have started looking into it as well. I make good money, but groceries are costing 300 dollars per trip nowadays (and other daily/weekly bills have increased as well).

The question I have is, how does the government pass laws to resolve this issue? Many grocery stores are posting record profits, so it's not like groceries are only expensive because of the upstream cost increases. 

How do you curtail corporate greed and overpricing?

People think "oh inflation is back under control" but ignore the fact that we just experienced a full year of hyper inflation and we will never get those prices back down. The gap is now permanent. Ya there are some things that will come back down, but prices will never return to what we saw them at.

My facebook is littered with people selling their houses, downsizing, moving to cheaper areas, and so on.

I think corporate greed plays a role for sure....but our leadership was slow to react and made piss poor policy decisions that had a direct impact on the economy and the pricing of goods and services. Many companies seem to have exploited that.

(08-08-2023, 11:39 AM)GMDino Wrote: This goes with something on the radio this morning about consumer focusing on savings "too much" and not spending.  And it irks me that this particular person used the word "hoarding" for individual savings when there are literal billionaires in this country while most of us are one serious illness from bankruptcy while living check to check.

It's why tax cuts for the rich don't work to stimulate the economy and we need to trickle UP not down.

lol, that's absolutely absurd.  What a way to describe someone being financially responsible.  

I'm not sure why you threw in the "tax cuts for rich" thing...I've never seen any policy that was billed as "tax cuts for the rich".  

[*Nately120*]

(08-08-2023, 11:38 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: How do you curtail corporate greed and overpricing?

Vote for Jimmy Carter in 1980.

[Goalpost]

Labor prices have increased in many fields. It costs 8.00 for a McDonalds breakfast and 10.00 for an Arby's lunch. It's what it costs to hire and keep people now and that cost is passed on.

[BigPapaKain]

(08-08-2023, 12:07 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Labor prices have increased in many fields.  It costs 8.00 for a McDonalds breakfast and 10.00 for an Arby's lunch.  It's what it costs to hire and keep people now and that cost is passed on.

Still an affect of unfettered corporate greed as opposed to rising operating costs.

Many countries had their fast food employees making a livable wage and still offered $1 burgers or whatever it is (I don't eat a lot of fast food these days).

[*Nately120*]

(08-08-2023, 12:40 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: Still an affect of unfettered corporate greed as opposed to rising operating costs.

Many countries had their fast food employees making a livable wage and still offered $1 burgers or whatever it is (I don't eat a lot of fast food these days).

So much of our political system my entire life has been based around the idea that if we make it so corporations make the most money then we will all benefit.  As I've said before, it's interesting seeing a lot of bi-partisan admission that we were sold a bill of false goods on that, yet I'm also aware we're going to be told the solution is to keep doing it and we're going to do exactly that.

[Belsnickel]

To be frank, we were facing a recession or inflation. The policies enacted by the Biden administration and passed by Congress made it so that right now we are not looking at a recession on the horizon. This spring we saw wage growth outpace inflation which shows an evening out after the most recent two years. Unemployment is far lower than it would have been without some of these efforts, and I would happily take a little less spending power over being unemployed.

There were global factors at play that were driving out economy and our government did what they could to soften the blow. They succeeded but the economic effects still impacted us because they were an inevitability. But, since the majority of people don't understand counterfactuals and have a hard time conceptualizing them we get some of the viewpoints in this thread.

[basballguy]

CNN on fire today...i guess there's no Trump news they can peddle

Credit card debt over 1 trillion:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html

Inflation still not beaten:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/global-oil-food-prices-inflation/index.html

[*Nately120*]

(08-08-2023, 01:45 PM)basballguy Wrote: CNN on fire today...i guess there's no Trump news they can peddle

I'm not sure if you're really ripping on CNN when you point out that talking about all the insane things Trump is facing and doing has become rather old hat.

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 01:58 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm not sure if you're really ripping on CNN when you point out that talking about all the insane things Trump is facing and doing has become rather old hat.

it's a double edged comment.  CNN loves to pass "analysis" and "opinion" off as headline news...especially when it comes to Trump.  

Today they're publishing actual news....and as a double bonus, actual news that I care about....with mild commentary that I agree with.  

CNN still sucks, but i'll continue to get my news from them just because of old habits.  

[*Nately120*]

(08-08-2023, 02:05 PM)basballguy Wrote: it's a double edged comment.  CNN loves to pass "analysis" and "opinion" off as headline news...especially when it comes to Trump.  

Today they're publishing actual news....and as a double bonus, actual news that I care about....with mild commentary that I agree with.  

CNN still sucks, but i'll continue to get my news from them just because of old habits.  

As I pointed out in 2016, we went rogue and elected a celebrity who is a walking headline to be president...wanting things to be sane and analytical with him controlling politics reminds me of those people who dye their hair green and put it in a spiked mohawk and then go out in public and wait for people to look so they can say "WHAT ARE YOU LOOKIN AT?!"

[Goalpost]

We are basically at the mercy of the Fed at this point. They have likely paused in raising rates but some Fed governors have hinted they aren't finished. The upcoming monthly data will determine things. Employment and consumer prices are logically the key data points they are looking at. I think the economy is stronger than they thought it would be, and they are worried that inflation...that last percent or two...they want it at 3 percent... remains stubborn to get to. A lot of people want them to reduce rates on behalf of housing and credit cards but those issues are likely to still remain longer.

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 02:18 PM)Goalpost Wrote: We are basically at the mercy of the Fed at this point.  They have likely paused in raising rates but some Fed governors have hinted they aren't finished.  The upcoming monthly data will determine things.  Employment and consumer prices seem to the key data they are looking at.  I think the economy is stronger than they thought it would be, and they are worried that inflation...that last percent or two...they want it at 3 percent... remains stubborn to get to.  A lot of people want them to reduce rates on behalf of housing and credit cards but those issues are likely to still remain longer.

The Fed has pretty much dried up their only tool for combatting inflation.  JPOW does not want to admit he acted too late.  They also softly committed to one more rate hike before the end of the year (but we know how that changes)

People point to the market as a key indicator for the economy but the market is literally being propped up by mega caps.  

Using S&P 500 as an example, here's the top components:

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500

AAPL, META, NVDA, etc all at the top...which is coincidentally all the companies that are experiencing ridiculous growth this last year.  

The rest of the companies, not so much.....

AAPL has already started to dive.  if the rest follow suit then it could get rough.  

I like my money as most people do...so I'm obviously hoping for the soft landing....I have extremely low confidence it'll happen.  

[HarleyDog]

(08-08-2023, 02:18 PM)Goalpost Wrote: We are basically at the mercy of the Fed at this point.  They have likely paused in raising rates but some Fed governors have hinted they aren't finished.  The upcoming monthly data will determine things.  Employment and consumer prices are logically the key data points they are looking at.  I think the economy is stronger than they thought it would be, and they are worried that inflation...that last percent or two...they want it at 3 percent... remains stubborn to get to.  A lot of people want them to reduce rates on behalf of housing and credit cards but those issues are likely to still remain longer.

Many opinions on Wallstreet believe the last hike was too much. We have yet to see the results of the last several raises. Some feel this last one might be the one that prevents the soft landing they were looking for. 

[Goalpost]

(08-08-2023, 02:51 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Many opinions on Wallstreet believe the last hike was too much. We have yet to see the results of the last several raises. Some feel this last one might be the one that prevents the soft landing they were looking for. 

There is definitely different opinions here.  As you stated, these hikes take a while to have their full effect as they work their way thru.

[treee]

(08-08-2023, 02:51 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Many opinions on Wallstreet believe the last hike was too much. We have yet to see the results of the last several raises. Some feel this last one might be the one that prevents the soft landing they were looking for. 

If a single 0.25 percent hike is the difference between a crash and not, then that means it was teetering on the edge anyway. The are events happening all the time that are 'stress testing' the economy. A strong economy is resilient against these types of random circumstances. So my point is if a 0.25 percent interest rate hike is enough to push the needle one way or the other, then that just means one of these other random events that 'stress test' the economy would have caused it the crash anyway. 

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 03:58 PM)treee Wrote: If a single 0.25 percent hike is the difference between a crash and not, then that means it was teetering on the edge anyway. The are events happening all the time that are 'stress testing' the economy. A strong economy is resilient against these types of random circumstances. So my point is if a 0.25 percent interest rate hike is enough to push the needle one way or the other, then that just means one of these other random events that 'stress test' the economy would have caused it the crash anyway. 

It's not a single hike dude.  We've had 10 hikes in 18 months.  Be real.

The Fed will NEVER raise interest rates by say....2 points in one hike...let alone 5, that's not how it works.  

Here's some historical reading material that covers rate hikes (and cuts) through the good times and bad:

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/

[treee]

(08-08-2023, 04:09 PM)basballguy Wrote: It's not a single hike dude.  We've had 10 hikes in 18 months.  Be real.

The Fed will NEVER raise interest rates by say....2 points in one hike...let alone 5, that's not how it works.  

Here's some historical reading material that covers rate hikes (and cuts) through the good times and bad:

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/

Right. My main point is if a single 0.25 hike will 'send it over the edge'. They take a while to set it in and very well might cause a recession. But these incremental hikes right now won't be the difference between a soft landing and not. 

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 04:40 PM)treee Wrote: Right. My main point is if a single 0.25 hike will 'send it over the edge'. They take a while to set it in and very well might cause a recession. But these incremental hikes right now won't be the difference between a soft landing and not. 

Oh, I agree (mostly) and misunderstood the point you were trying to make. 

I can see snowball scenarios....for instance, we are expecting the .25 hike by the end of the year...it's entirely possible they decide to raise by .50 instead of .25.  That extra .25 won't tank the economy but it could start the snowball rolling down the hill.  

I don't think there's anything anyone can do at this point to steer the economy one way or the other.  Like you're implying, the factors have already set in and we'll know soon.  

[BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI]

The Bureau of Labor statics will be releasing the July numbers on August 10th, let's see what they have to say.

[basballguy]

(08-08-2023, 05:51 PM)BIGDADDYFROMCINCINNATI Wrote: The Bureau of Labor statics will be releasing the July numbers on August 10th, let's see what they have to say.

What?

Are you still banking on CPI as the sole basis for this discussion?

CPI increased by just .2% MoM last month which was a nice change of pace.  The current projection is we'll get a .4% increase for august....which, in my opinion, is fine.  

However, we've already been crippled by inflation.  Unless we start seeing negative CPI data MoM, there's no point in trying to use CPI as a basis for Bidenomics.  

What you should start looking at for the rest of the year are wages, employment, and debt.