Despite the detractors, Trump doing well

[SunsetBengal]

The numbers don't lie. Seems like majority favor his policies.

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/394934-trump-just-keeps-on-confounding-his-hapless-detractors

(sorry, this article wouldn't allow a cut and paste)

[GMDino]

(07-02-2018, 01:22 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The numbers don't lie.  Seems like majority favor his policies.

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/394934-trump-just-keeps-on-confounding-his-hapless-detractors

(sorry, this article wouldn't allow a cut and paste)

Quote:BY MONICA CROWLEY, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 07/02/18 09:30 AM EDT 751

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

[Belsnickel]

(07-02-2018, 01:26 PM)GMDino Wrote:

Yeah, the opinion piece isn't what you should use to discredit this piece. What you should discuss is the selection of the poll results that are just one data point in a larger data set showing that the poll is skewed significantly in Trump's favor. The average approval in the meta-analysis right now sits around 42%. Metas are much better at this sort of thing than single polls, so I'll take that. Also, the way some of the information was cherry picked was interesting to me.

For instance: M1 In general, do you think the country is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track? - 39% right track; 52% wrong track; 9% unsure

The financial situation one, I could just as easily say that 60% of the American public feel like their financial situation is stagnant or getting worse, which isn't good for the party in power.

M4 shows that 61% disapprove of the GOP right now (39% approval). M5 has Democracts at a 58/42 disapprove/approve.

The poll itself has some issues with the questions being asked and the n, but choosing specific items to highlight and then framing certain results in a particular way means you can make it come across any way you like.

[GMDino]

(07-02-2018, 01:42 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Yeah, the opinion piece isn't what you should use to discredit this piece. What you should discuss is the selection of the poll results that are just one data point in a larger data set showing that the poll is skewed significantly in Trump's favor. The average approval in the meta-analysis right now sits around 42%. Metas are much better at this sort of thing than single polls, so I'll take that. Also, the way some of the information was cherry picked was interesting to me.

For instance: M1 In general, do you think the country is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track? - 39% right track; 52% wrong track; 9% unsure

The financial situation one, I could just as easily say that 60% of the American public feel like their financial situation is stagnant or getting worse, which isn't good for the party in power.

M4 shows that 61% disapprove of the GOP right now (39% approval). M5 has Democracts at a 58/42 disapprove/approve.

The poll itself has some issues with the questions being asked and the n, but choosing specific items to highlight and then framing certain results in a particular way means you can make it come across any way you like.

I wasn't trying to discredit it...just labeling it appropriately.  

As soon as I read the statistics I knew you'd be along to do the heavy work.  

[Au165]

Stats can be framed to say whatever you want them to.

[Millhouse]

Did I miss seeing a somewhere?

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[*michaelsean*]

(07-02-2018, 01:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Stats can be framed to say whatever you want them to.

Like Hillary will win.

Bels:  Actually the numbers on the popular vote were quite close.

Mike:  But they missed on the electoral polls

Bels:  Those are traditionally much more difficult and expensive as you would have to continuously do state by state polling.

Whew!  Got that out of the way. 

[*bfine32*]

Where can I get a dtractor?

[Belsnickel]

(07-02-2018, 02:13 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Where can I get a dtractor?

I just imagined a tractor shaped like a penis, for some reason.

[Au165]

(07-02-2018, 02:13 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Where can I get a dtractor?

It's the next model up from the ctractor

[Belsnickel]

(07-02-2018, 01:58 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Like Hillary will win.

Bels:  Actually the numbers on the popular vote were quite close.

Mike:  But they missed on the electoral polls

Bels:  Those are traditionally much more difficult and expensive as you would have to continuously do state by state polling.

Whew!  Got that out of the way. 

Yay! Stats!

[SunsetBengal]

(07-02-2018, 01:42 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Yeah, the opinion piece isn't what you should use to discredit this piece. What you should discuss is the selection of the poll results that are just one data point in a larger data set showing that the poll is skewed significantly in Trump's favor. The average approval in the meta-analysis right now sits around 42%. Metas are much better at this sort of thing than single polls, so I'll take that. Also, the way some of the information was cherry picked was interesting to me.

For instance: M1 In general, do you think the country is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track? - 39% right track; 52% wrong track; 9% unsure

The financial situation one, I could just as easily say that 60% of the American public feel like their financial situation is stagnant or getting worse, which isn't good for the party in power.

M4 shows that 61% disapprove of the GOP right now (39% approval). M5 has Democracts at a 58/42 disapprove/approve.

The poll itself has some issues with the questions being asked and the n, but choosing specific items to highlight and then framing certain results in a particular way means you can make it come across any way you like.

So, are you asserting that the Harvard Center for American Political Studies doesn't know how to properly conduct a poll?

[Belsnickel]

(07-02-2018, 03:41 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: So, are you asserting that the Harvard Center for American Political Studies doesn't know how to properly conduct a poll?

I am saying that all political polls provide one data point and can be subject to bias and have a margin of error, which is why meta-analyses are a better indicator. The information provided by polls can also be interpreted in ways intended to present findings that are not actually substantiated by the data and can be presented in a way favoring one side or the other using the exact same data.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-02-2018, 04:36 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I am saying that all political polls provide one data point and can be subject to bias and have a margin of error, which is why meta-analyses are a better indicator. The information provided by polls can also be interpreted in ways intended to present findings that are not actually substantiated by the data and can be presented in a way favoring one side or the other using the exact same data.

Ok, I can understand that.  I just thought I read another piece over the weekend that used data from Pew research, that showed approximately the same numbers.  How many in agreement does it take to get a trend noticed? (serious question) 

[Belsnickel]

(07-02-2018, 04:50 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ok, I can understand that.  I just thought I read another piece over the weekend that used data from Pew research, that showed approximately the same numbers.  How many in agreement does it take to get a trend noticed? (serious question) 

Honestly? A lot. Nate Silver's group does a running approval tracker (he did it for Obama, as well) and takes in all approval polls he can find to come up with his meta. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

If you ever want to see what the trend is, check them out over there. You can even look through the individual polls (this is know I knew the questions, he has the link to it) and see what the n was or whether it was adults, registered voters, likely voters, etc. These things all have to be taken into account for the meta.

[*bfine32*]

(07-02-2018, 04:50 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ok, I can understand that.  I just thought I read another piece over the weekend that used data from Pew research, that showed approximately the same numbers.  How many in agreement does it take to get a trend noticed? (serious question) 

A lot of folks like to ***** and moan about the current administration. I ask anyone in this forum to explain how their personal life or financial status has been made worse by the current administration. 

[GMDino]

(07-02-2018, 05:08 PM)bfine32 Wrote: A lot of folks like to ***** and moan about the current administration. I ask anyone in this forum to explain how their personal life or financial status has been made worse by the current administration. 

Well I didn't get a dime from the "tax cut" while prices (gas, food, supplies)  have seen an increase and my 401K is in constant flux as the stock market triest to adjust to whatever the latest thing Trump tweeted was.

That's one thing.  

[fredtoast]

(07-02-2018, 05:08 PM)bfine32 Wrote: A lot of folks like to ***** and moan about the current administration. I ask anyone in this forum to explain how their personal life or financial status has been made worse by the current administration. 

Trump inherited a hot economy.  Then he threw gas on it with massive tax cuts (mostly for the wealthy).

Anyone remember when Republicans used to complain about the national debt?  Now it is "Who cares if we have to borrow more money to pay for the tax cut?  All tax cuts are great!!!!"

[jj22]

Honestly, what is the big difference between the Trump economy and the Obama economy? The issue I have is all those people who said the numbers were fake each month under Obama, yet praise them (they come from the same government sources) under Trump. The economy is good, I have no problem saying it, but it's been good since 2013 at least.

Trump claims the economy made the change on 11/09/2016. Go figure.

[Dill]

(07-02-2018, 01:22 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The numbers don't lie.  Seems like majority favor his policies.

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/394934-trump-just-keeps-on-confounding-his-hapless-detractors

(sorry, this article wouldn't allow a cut and paste)

Would that be a good thing?