Posts: 11,122
Threads: 59
Reputation:
44170
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: This is actually an interesting angle to this, how does a war of aggression play out in modern times with social media. The people of Russia will be the ones harmed by sanctions but obviously the powerful there, and in most places here included, don't really worry too much about that. The question is extremism and how that plays. Ukraine is not all that separated from Russia to believe that Ukraine sympathizers/Putin haters wouldn't begin some sort of ops inside of Russian borders to create havoc.
I honestly think there are two outcomes here, both with Russia overtaking Ukraine quickly. The first is a blitzkrieg style overtaking of the country and then installing their own puppet government so they can stay with the narrative of "operation" and removing "Nazisim" from their government. They then back out as part of "negotiations" and die on the hill of self defense and see if they can mitigate sanctions while still advancing their agenda. The other scarier option is that they simply use Ukraine as the jumping off point to quickly sweep up other former Soviet states. The one that looks most ripe for the taking is Moldova who actually has a similar separatist area like Ukraine that would allow Russia to use the same pretext to move in.
I guarantee you the Baltic states are shitting bricks right now. Putin has a hard on for them and they absolutely despise the Russians.
Posts: 11,462
Threads: 131
Reputation:
56714
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:19 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I love how people instantly, not even one page in, start blaming Trump instead of the vegetable that's in the White House now.
Ask yourself this, though, why did Russia wait until Trump was out of office to go after Ukraine? If Trump was so friendly with Putin, he would have wanted to invade while Trump was in office so he wouldn't have to fear any retaliation.
I love how people think this actually has anything to do with any President of the United States. We are so self absorbed with politics we literally think everything is somehow related to us, it really isn't. This is a much more complex issue than who is in the White House and intelligence around this very idea has circulated for years. Putin has fantasized about re establishment of the Soviet Union in a bid to reclaim Russia's super power role in world politics.
One could even look to timing as more of a coincidence of a post pandemic world where world leaders as a whole may be hesitant to respond due to economic implications that would arise from intervention. We do know that Germany was hesitant for instance to involve economic sanctions around Nord Stream 2 because of how it would effect their economy in an already fragile state. We also know that the EU is struggling with removing Russia from SWIFT for the same reason. If the world was in a better space economically I think the response could have been different as a whole, which is why I don't think the timing is coincidental but I don't think it has anything to do with us. Donald Trump was never sending boots into a war with Russia anymore than Biden is. The only thing either ever had to use were economic sanctions and they are currently being used at about the best rate you could hope for less than 24 hrs in.
Posts: 11,462
Threads: 131
Reputation:
56714
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:23 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I guarantee you the Baltic states are shitting bricks right now. Putin has a hard on for them and they absolutely despise the Russians.
Gaining better access to the Baltic Sea serves a strategic purpose like taking Ukraine for better access to the Black Sea. I think he stays selective though for now and avoids them. Moldova like Ukraine is not part of NATO so he can usurp power from them without triggering an Article 5 response. I think he is prodding to see how much he can actually get away with before pushing too much of his luck. I will say though after Moldova those would be the next most likely targets followed by Romania and Bulgaria.
Posts: 38,812
Threads: 1,710
Reputation:
55711
Joined: May 2015
Location: SW PA
Mood:
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media0.giphy.com/media/1kwsTjL8BNqlszNtnCE/giphy.gif)
Your anger and ego will always reveal your true self.
Posts: 3,249
Threads: 9
Reputation:
11472
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:19 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I love how people instantly, not even one page in, start blaming Trump instead of the vegetable that's in the White House now.
Ask yourself this, though, why did Russia wait until Trump was out of office to go after Ukraine? If Trump was so friendly with Putin, he would have wanted to invade while Trump was in office so he wouldn't have to fear any retaliation.
It's all speculative, but there are a few logical guesses as to why Putin waited.
One reason is that in Putin's eyes, having Trump in the White House was an asset to him. Trump did plenty in his time in office to promote Russian interests (like readmission into the G7) and also to undermine Ukraine (accused Ukraine of interfering with the US elections for example). So life was good for Putin under Trump, his ambitions over Ukraine could wait.
It's been mentioned in this thread before that Putin would undoubtedly have seen Trump as unpredictable. Trump undermined our allies plenty, and very easily could have gone rogue in a response to Russia's aggression. It seems like NATO/UN/EU/Collective West is going to leave Ukraine out to dry, as the options are directly interfere and defend a non-NATO non-EU member which could be perceived as an unnecessary escalation of the conflict to World War levels or to sanction the daylights out of Russia and hope for the best. Trump's lack of understanding of international and geopolitical relationships, coupled with his overarching desire to "appear strong" could have easily resulted in a worse result for everyone involved.
Another reason is that Putin is acting much like he did with Crimea. While Putin's first desire is certainly a return to form of Russian influence over Eastern Europe, a secondary objective of Putin's will always be to undermine the USA and it's political atmosphere. Part of the US swinging to Trump, a positive for Putin, was Obama's perceived weakness over the annexation of Crimea. While Trump's victory was certainly more than "Americans wanting a (perceived to be) strong leader" it was a component. Putin is going to laughing all the way with this narrative being spun of "Biden is so weak, Trump would have been better!" as it furthers his desires in increasing ever more the division in the United States, and potentially for the next POTUS to be from the political party much favorable to him.
I get that the easy answer is "Putin feared Trump", but like all international relations, it's much more complicated than that.
Posts: 7,399
Threads: 264
Reputation:
30276
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:19 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I love how people instantly, not even one page in, start blaming Trump instead of the vegetable that's in the White House now.
Ask yourself this, though, why did Russia wait until Trump was out of office to go after Ukraine? If Trump was so friendly with Putin, he would have wanted to invade while Trump was in office so he wouldn't have to fear any retaliation.
Oh how time flies… omg
https://www.npr.org/2017/12/04/568310790/2016-rnc-delegate-trump-directed-change-to-party-platform-on-ukraine-support
Posts: 3,249
Threads: 9
Reputation:
11472
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:32 PM)Au165 Wrote: Gaining better access to the Baltic Sea serves a strategic purpose like taking Ukraine for better access to the Black Sea. I think he stays selective though for now and avoids them. Moldova like Ukraine is not part of NATO so he can usurp power from them without triggering an Article 5 response. I think he is prodding to see how much he can actually get away with before pushing too much of his luck. I will say though after Moldova those would be the next most likely targets followed by Romania and Bulgaria.
Agreed. There really isn't much the west can do when Putin targets non-NATO non-EU members other than sanction the shit out of Russia, and Putin has been preparing for that by cozying up to China. Moldova is the next logical target and is probably screwed.
Posts: 2,162
Threads: 79
Reputation:
9488
Joined: Jan 2016
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:36 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It's all speculative, but there are a few logical guesses as to why Putin waited.
One reason is that in Putin's eyes, having Trump in the White House was an asset to him. Trump did plenty in his time in office to promote Russian interests (like readmission into the G7) and also to undermine Ukraine (accused Ukraine of interfering with the US elections for example). So life was good for Putin under Trump, his ambitions over Ukraine could wait.
If that were the case, then it would be all the more reason to invade while Trump was President.
Also, promote Russian interests? Like.....
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/russia-sanctions-oligarchs/index.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-says-russia-sanctions-ukraine-will-continue/
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/russians-turned-away-at-seattle-consulate-after-trump-administration-announces-closure/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-usa/u-s-eu-to-expel-more-than-100-russian-diplomats-over-uk-nerve-attack-idUSKBN1H21MR
and the one that probably has the most impact on the current situation (since it was reversed)...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935
Posts: 11,122
Threads: 59
Reputation:
44170
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
I'm going to throw this out there as a one off, and I'm just engaging in some rumination here so please don't take offense, but I wonder if this won't be good for the US long term. We seem to do much better when we have an external enemy to fixate on. I certainly lament the circumstances (I have an internet friend in Ukraine and I haven't heard from her in several days despite messaging her) and don't see it as as a fair tradeoff but I wonder if this won't restore some national purpose now that some of us are realizing for the first time just how dangerous and dictatorial much of the world is. Those of us who grew up in the Cold War know this, but most millennials, and everyone in Gen Z+, have zero idea what this type of national threat looks or feels like.
Posts: 10,544
Threads: 1,294
Reputation:
38520
Joined: May 2015
Location: Robbing Grandmas Of The Covid Vaccine In Northern Kentucky-Greater Cincinnati
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:36 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It's all speculative, but there are a few logical guesses as to why Putin waited.
One reason is that in Putin's eyes, having Trump in the White House was an asset to him. Trump did plenty in his time in office to promote Russian interests (like readmission into the G7) and also to undermine Ukraine (accused Ukraine of interfering with the US elections for example). So life was good for Putin under Trump, his ambitions over Ukraine could wait.
It's been mentioned in this thread before that Putin would undoubtedly have seen Trump as unpredictable. Trump undermined our allies plenty, and very easily could have gone rogue in a response to Russia's aggression. It seems like NATO/UN/EU/Collective West is going to leave Ukraine out to dry, as the options are directly interfere and defend a non-NATO non-EU member which could be perceived as an unnecessary escalation of the conflict to World War levels or to sanction the daylights out of Russia and hope for the best. Trump's lack of understanding of international and geopolitical relationships, coupled with his overarching desire to "appear strong" could have easily resulted in a worse result for everyone involved.
Another reason is that Putin is acting much like he did with Crimea. While Putin's first desire is certainly a return to form of Russian influence over Eastern Europe, a secondary objective of Putin's will always be to undermine the USA and it's political atmosphere. Part of the US swinging to Trump, a positive for Putin, was Obama's perceived weakness over the annexation of Crimea. While Trump's victory was certainly more than "Americans wanting a (perceived to be) strong leader" it was a component. Putin is going to laughing all the way with this narrative being spun of "Biden is so weak, Trump would have been better!" as it furthers his desires in increasing ever more the division in the United States, and potentially for the next POTUS to be from the political party much favorable to him.
I get that the easy answer is "Putin feared Trump", but like all international relations, it's much more complicated than that.
See below in response to the first part.
As far as the second part, you're claiming that's a bad thing? The entire point is that Putin knew and still knows that Biden is too mentally unstable and too weak to do anything. Personally, I want countries so afraid of US retaliation and what we could do that they stay in line.
That's been the problem with the country, excluding the Trump years, ever since Obama: the US is no longer feared because other countries know we won't stand up for ourselves or for other countries.
(02-24-2022, 06:52 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: If that were the case, then it would be all the more reason to invade while Trump was President.
Also, promote Russian interests? Like.....
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/russia-sanctions-oligarchs/index.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-says-russia-sanctions-ukraine-will-continue/
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/russians-turned-away-at-seattle-consulate-after-trump-administration-announces-closure/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-usa/u-s-eu-to-expel-more-than-100-russian-diplomats-over-uk-nerve-attack-idUSKBN1H21MR
and the one that probably has the most impact on the current situation (since it was reversed)...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935
Yep.
Posts: 3,249
Threads: 9
Reputation:
11472
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 06:52 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: If that were the case, then it would be all the more reason to invade while Trump was President.
Also, promote Russian interests? Like.....
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/russia-sanctions-oligarchs/index.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-says-russia-sanctions-ukraine-will-continue/
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/russians-turned-away-at-seattle-consulate-after-trump-administration-announces-closure/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-usa/u-s-eu-to-expel-more-than-100-russian-diplomats-over-uk-nerve-attack-idUSKBN1H21MR
and the one that probably has the most impact on the current situation (since it was reversed)...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935
Sure, Trump reluctantly signing legislation passed with veto-proof bipartisan support while bitching about it's provisions is tough on Russia. As well as sanctioning firms working on Nord Stream 2. Putin sure was shook over the closing of a consulate and tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomates.
Not sure what to tell you if you honestly think that Putin does not prefer a Trump presidency.
Posts: 3,541
Threads: 39
Reputation:
11054
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
(02-24-2022, 06:23 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I guarantee you the Baltic states are shitting bricks right now. Putin has a hard on for them and they absolutely despise the Russians.
Funny fact, Lithuania was once the largest country of Europe and Ukraine was a part of it in 1350.
Now it's just a tiny place to the northern sea.
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Posts: 10,544
Threads: 1,294
Reputation:
38520
Joined: May 2015
Location: Robbing Grandmas Of The Covid Vaccine In Northern Kentucky-Greater Cincinnati
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 07:06 PM)Arturo Bandini Wrote: Funny fact, Lithuania was once the largest country of Europe and Ukraine was a part of it in 1350.
Now it's just a tiny place to the northern sea.
I have a friend from Lithuania here and I was going to ask her about it but she's not too fond of even talking about life over there.
She still has family over there but I don't think she's been back since she came here in the 90s.
Posts: 3,541
Threads: 39
Reputation:
11054
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
(02-24-2022, 07:01 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: See below in response to the first part.
As far as the second part, you're claiming that's a bad thing? The entire point is that Putin knew and still knows that Biden is too mentally unstable and too weak to do anything. Personally, I want countries so afraid of US retaliation and what we could do that they stay in line.
That's been the problem with the country, excluding the Trump years, ever since Obama: the US is no longer feared because other countries know we won't stand up for ourselves or for other countries.
Yep.
Please refresh my memory. For which country did you stand between the 60's and Obama ?
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Posts: 3,541
Threads: 39
Reputation:
11054
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
(02-24-2022, 07:10 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I have a friend from Lithuania here and I was going to ask her about it but she's not too fond of even talking about life over there.
She still has family over there but I don't think she's been back since she came here in the 90s.
Lithuania is very far from Ukraine, they might be OK.
There live a peaceful life at this moment. But I understand they might be worry.
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Posts: 28,093
Threads: 40
Reputation:
122122
Joined: May 2015
Location: Parts Unknown, PA
Mood:
(02-24-2022, 07:00 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I'm going to throw this out there as a one off, and I'm just engaging in some rumination here so please don't take offense, but I wonder if this won't be good for the US long term. We seem to do much better when we have an external enemy to fixate on. I certainly lament the circumstances (I have an internet friend in Ukraine and I haven't heard from her in several days despite messaging her) and don't see it as as a fair tradeoff but I wonder if this won't restore some national purpose now that some of us are realizing for the first time just how dangerous and dictatorial much of the world is. Those of us who grew up in the Cold War know this, but most millennials, and everyone in Gen Z+, have zero idea what this type of national threat looks or feels like.
I think we are too divided to agree on a common enemy now, though. The "enemy" has become our own fellow citizens. Why fear some dictator across the ocean when americans all around you are ruining everything?
Posts: 11,122
Threads: 59
Reputation:
44170
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 07:14 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think we are too divided to agree on a common enemy now, though. The "enemy" has become our own fellow citizens. Why fear some dictator across the ocean when americans all around you are ruining everything?
And that's exactly why I think the opposite. Contrary to some statements here, and elsewhere, no one in this country is on Putin's side. This kind of thing is exactly what causes nation's to close ranks. Biden's political opposition will certainly use Putin's actions to tear Biden apart, and in some respects deservedly so, but at the end of the day I don't think your position will be the one to win out. You could be right, but I don't think you are and I certainly hope otherwise.
As an aside, I wouldn't be shocked if Finland and others now join NATO. Putin went from fearing NATO's expansion to directly enabling it. To quote Bababooey, it's a bit of a stumble.
Posts: 7,399
Threads: 264
Reputation:
30276
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 07:14 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think we are too divided to agree on a common enemy now, though. The "enemy" has become our own fellow citizens. Why fear some dictator across the ocean when americans all around you are ruining everything?
I thought the truckers Fox News and the GOP asked to come clog up our cities were Canadian?
Posts: 11,122
Threads: 59
Reputation:
44170
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(02-24-2022, 07:23 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I thought the truckers Fox News and the GOP asked to come clog up our cities were Canadian?
Please believe I say this with no ill intent, but I wonder if you realize how much your post exemplifies Nately's exact point.
Posts: 28,093
Threads: 40
Reputation:
122122
Joined: May 2015
Location: Parts Unknown, PA
Mood:
(02-24-2022, 07:11 PM)Arturo Bandini Wrote: Please refresh my memory. For which country did you stand between the 60's and Obama ?
This is shaping up to be the most impactful conflict in Europe in almost 80 years and somehow America only giving Trump one term is the direct cause? Lordy, that's a hot take.
Ah well. Maybe 9/11 doesn't happen if Al Gore wins Florida.
|
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
![[Image: 7LNf.gif]](https://i.gifer.com/7LNf.gif)
