The First GOP Debate

[Dill]

Frankly, I'll be surprised if DeSantis' polls improve after this debate. So many better debaters with more energy up there.

Best debaters, going by their history and interviews--Christie and Haley.

Most energetic--Ramaswamy with Scott a close second. Christie is an energetic debater.

I'm looking to see if an anti-Trump lane can consolidate some more support here,
as opposed to just a non-Trump lane. That means realism and very unwanted "tough" love though
--emphasizing that Trump cannot beat Biden, that his  own behavior is the ground of his legal trouble etc.

Post-debate polling over the next week may give us insight into what the majority of GOP really want. 
Over 40% would like to move on from Trump. But most won't support candidates critical of Trump. 
And many seem scornful of "Trump lite." The one true evangelical running cannot consolidate much of the Evangelical voter. 
That still goes to the least Evangelical candidate. Scott offers a sunny Reaganesque option, seems uninterested culture wars.

Anyway, this article poses some interesting questions for debate watchers.

6 things to watch for in the first 2024 Republican presidential primary debate
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/23/politics/gop-debate-what-to-watch/index.html

Can DeSantis withstand the Bright Lights?
(Lol, is he going to "hammer" Ramaswamy?)

To Trump or not to Trump? That is the Question
(Scott Walker thinks candidates only hurt themselves attacking Trump. They need to
advance their own bold new positions.)

The Trump Critics Role without Trump 
(Christie, Hutchinson, and Pence--how far do they go criticizing the guy not there?) 

A South Carolina Standout? (Haley or Scott? Haley has already jumped on Rama for favoring reduced aid to Israel)

Are Breakout Moments Even Possible? (Trump will release his Carlson interview at debate time. How many GOP
voters will be drawn from the debate?)

Will Anyone Have an Oops Moment? (E.g., Rick Perry)

[GreenDragon]

One thing the right will not admit, MAGA would not include Ramaswamy in what they think about when America was "great".

[Dill]

(08-23-2023, 01:40 PM)GreenDragon Wrote: One thing the right will not admit, MAGA would not include Ramaswamy in what they think about when America was "great".

Here is, I think, what will be the central "denial" issue of the evening. As evidence there was no fraud consolidates and extends,
the number of GOP who believe the election was stolen increases.

Fox News Anchors and Election Denialism
https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2023/8/22/23842198/8-things-to-know-ahead-of-the-first-republican-presidential-debate

How will Baier and MacCallum handle a threshold question: Did Trump lose the election? Their reputations will be on the line here if they don’t confront this.
The answer to that question is not bringing up Hunter Biden or saying that Joe Biden is the president. That begs the question. We all know that.
The heart of this question goes to election denialism. This is a yes or no question — and acknowledging Trump lost may trigger his wrath. Here’s why this is very important ground to cover as we consider that Trump may very well win the nomination.

The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found 51% of likely Iowa Republican caucus goers believe Trump’s claims that he won the 2020 contest — with no evidence of major vote fraud.
Some 41% said they don’t believe Trump, and 8% are not sure. The poll was conducted Aug. 13-17 of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.

[GreenDragon]

(08-23-2023, 02:15 PM)Dill Wrote: Here is, I think, what will be the central "denial" issue of the evening. As evidence there was no fraud consolidates and extends,
the number of GOP who believe the election was stolen increases.

Fox News Anchors and Election Denialism
https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2023/8/22/23842198/8-things-to-know-ahead-of-the-first-republican-presidential-debate

How will Baier and MacCallum handle a threshold question: Did Trump lose the election? Their reputations will be on the line here if they don’t confront this.
The answer to that question is not bringing up Hunter Biden or saying that Joe Biden is the president. That begs the question. We all know that.
The heart of this question goes to election denialism. This is a yes or no question — and acknowledging Trump lost may trigger his wrath. Here’s why this is very important ground to cover as we consider that Trump may very well win the nomination.

The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found 51% of likely Iowa Republican caucus goers believe Trump’s claims that he won the 2020 contest — with no evidence of major vote fraud.
Some 41% said they don’t believe Trump, and 8% are not sure. The poll was conducted Aug. 13-17 of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.

Doesn't really respond to what I said but okay. 

[Dill]

(08-23-2023, 02:21 PM)GreenDragon Wrote: Doesn't really respond to what I said but okay. 

Well, I was thinking it fit the theme of what GOP voters won't want to admit--DT lost a fair election.

And all the Capitol rioting and fundraising for legal fees and "weaponization" of gov. BS follow from a lie.

But in a more direct response to your point, I'm betting as much as 12% may eventually think Rama
is MAGA ok to vote for. He gets into the high 30% in favorability. 

[*Nately120*]

I have to say that it is downright interesting there is going to be a debate where the frontrunner thinks a better use of his time is turning himself in to law enforcement and almost all of the remaining candidates are going to defend him while the question "Who won the last presidential election?" will bring the entire room to an impossible impasse.

[Dill]

(08-23-2023, 02:47 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I have to say that it is downright interesting there is going to be a debate where the frontrunner thinks a better use of his time is turning himself in to law enforcement and almost all of the remaining candidates are going to defend him while the question "Who won the last presidential election?" will bring the entire room to an impossible impasse.

lol

[Dill]

Top three issues that would incline GOP voters to vote for a candidate:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/poll-sending-troops-us-mexico-border-popular-gop-policy-planks-are-str-rcna91245

1. willingness to deploy military to border.
2.             "       to fight "woke" ideology."
3.             "       to ban puberty-blocking meds for transgender adolescents.

[GreenDragon]

(08-23-2023, 03:07 PM)Dill Wrote: Top three issues that would incline GOP voters to vote for a candidate:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/poll-sending-troops-us-mexico-border-popular-gop-policy-planks-are-str-rcna91245

1. willingness to deploy military to border.
2.             "       to fight "woke" ideology."
3.             "       to ban puberty-blocking meds for transgender adolescents.

All three of those issues are asinine. 

Is our border in danger of invasion? Nope.

Can anyone on the right even define "woke"? Nope. 

You want to take the time to ban medication for a small portion of the population? What happened to small government? 

[Rotobeast]

Pence can be the catalyst to a real debate. If he takes more pointed shots at DT, that will open the door for the other participants to lean into his lead. I feel he's the only one who can not be vilified further, given gallows were constructed for him on January 6th.

*edit^ Rumor is Christie may get more aggressive and go that route.

[hollodero]

(08-23-2023, 04:26 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: Pence can be the catalyst to a real debate. If he takes more pointed shots at DT, that will open the door for the other participants to lean into his lead. I feel he's the only one who can not be vilified further, given gallows were constructed for him on January 6th.

*edit^ Rumor is Christie may get more aggressive and go that route.

Who'd be your favourite candidate?

PS I root for Christie, but that's mainly because he's the funniest.

[Rotobeast]

(08-23-2023, 04:39 PM)hollodero Wrote: Who'd be your favourite candidate?

PS I root for Christie, but that's mainly because he's the funniest.

I'm inclined towards Christie (as he seems rational at times), but I do not currently have a favorite. We could/should do much better with candidates on both sides.

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[*Nately120*]

(08-23-2023, 04:26 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: Pence can be the catalyst to a real debate. If he takes more pointed shots at DT, that will open the door for the other participants to lean into his lead. I feel he's the only one who can not be vilified further, given gallows were constructed for him on January 6th.

*edit^ Rumor is Christie may get more aggressive and go that route.

I predict Christie will get aggressive and the rest of them will defend Trump, because they're all really just planning for the future or to be in Trump's circle, not to be the president in 2024.  Christie wants to be the first notable republican to FINALLY point out that emperor Trump has no clothes, Pence...who knows, DeSantis is trying to set himself up to be the candidate in 2028 if Trump is dead by then, and the rest are looking to kiss Trump's ass so they can be VP or get cabinet positions.

Trump won't be around forever, and anyone who goes after him today will be toast.  Defend him and then hope he's unavailable to run soon and you can say "I never turned on Trump, but he's gone now and you need me to take his place."

(08-23-2023, 04:45 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I'm inclined towards Christie (as he seems rational at times), but I do not currently have a favorite. We could/should do much better with candidates on both sides.

He's the only one who will flat out admit that Trump lost in 2020 and Trump should not be the GOP candidate in 2024, so I have to back him by default.  How anyone can win a political debate while refusing to admit who the current president is just shows how feelings matter over facts.

Christie should just point out that he's the only person there who will admit that Trump shouldn't be the first choice for president and everyone else is full of crap.

[Rotobeast]

(08-23-2023, 04:48 PM)Nately120 Wrote: How anyone can win a political debate while refusing to admit who the current president is just shows how feelings matter over facts.

They might not win the debate per se, but they want that chunk of 80 million votes that went for Trump. It's a tactical measure to retain them, and they'll sprinkle enough sensible thoughts into it to attract the fence riders. If the sensible sound bites gain traction, they'll pivot. I don't expect that, though...lol

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[*Nately120*]

(08-23-2023, 04:57 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: They might not win the debate per se, but they want that chunk of 80 million votes that went for Trump. It's a tactical measure to retain them, and they'll sprinkle enough sensible thoughts into it to attract the fence riders. If the sensible sound bites gain traction, they'll pivot. I don't expect that, though...lol

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What can they say?  Vote for me, but I mean, Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and he did nothing wrong and the left is out to get him, and he's the best president ever...but yea vote for me.  They're just fighting to be the biggest Trump kiss ass so they can win more of his base when he dies, and even then a lot of Trump supporters are going to vote for him.

[Rotobeast]

(08-23-2023, 05:01 PM)Nately120 Wrote: What can they say?  Vote for me, but I mean, Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and he did nothing wrong and the left is out to get him, and he's the best president ever...but yea vote for me.  They're just fighting to be the biggest Trump kiss ass so they can win more of his base when he dies, and even then a lot of Trump supporters are going to vote for him.

The smartest/safest play is to say they want to let the judicial process play out and that they believe it will exonerate DT.

Most will likely defend him blindly (like you said), though.



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[Fan_in_Kettering]

It’s too early for this crap to start. Debates should begin as the primary season kicks off and no sooner. That goes for both parties.

[*Nately120*]

(08-23-2023, 05:13 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: The smartest/safest play is to say they want to let the judicial process play out and that they believe it will exonerate DT.

Most will likely defend him blindly (like you said), though.

Anything short of saying Trump is innocent and the target of a witch hunt right now isn't loyal enough.  Trump's narrative is that he's being attacked, so admitting that he needs to prove his innocence in court is playing into the hands of Joe Biden's DOJ.  I guess we'll see what is said, but it's moot.  Trump is the candidate in 2024 and possibly 2028 if he doesn't win in 2024, so we see the GOP continue to ignore the Trump problem and just hope someone or something else solves it for them. 

The 2028 GOP debates could be about who loved Trump the most and fought for him the hardest, but now he's dead so vote for me.  2024?  Meh, this is all about doing PR for Trump and smiling as they lie down so he can walk over them yet again.  

(08-23-2023, 05:17 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: It’s too early for this crap to start.  Debates should begin as the primary season kicks off and no sooner.  That goes for both parties.

I'm (clearly) convinced this debate is more for the 2028 election than this one, so it's ultra early.

[*pally*]

its a tough choice....

Debate among people I will never ever vote for

Inter Miami with Lionel Messi vs FC Cincinnati

FUTBOL it is...

I can watch the debate anytime but chances to watch a GOAT like Messi in person don't come around often

[CKwi88]

I agree with the sentiment that, at least for this election cycle, this is 100% posturing by candidates not named Donald Trump. If 4 years of Trump in office, January 6th, and all the indictments still have 50+% going for Trump, there's next to nothing that will happen during this debate that will erode that number. Sure they can fight over the 30ish% that they have between them, and last 20ish% that is undecided, but the priority for the candidates is going to be getting out of the debate and not having to worry about being the target of an unhinged TruthSocial rant from 45.

Unfortunately, that likely entails denouncing the multiple cases against him as a "witch hunt" and "weaponizing the DOJ" and a whole bunch of utter bullshit.

Not sure who "wins" this debate, but I can already tell you that our country and our democracy loses.