US - China war inevitable?

[Belsnickel]

I know this thread was resurrected for other reasons, but here is an article that is almost as old as this thread that adds something to the original topic of it: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/

Quote:When Barack Obama meets this week with Xi Jinping during the Chinese president’s first state visit to America, one item probably won’t be on their agenda: the possibility that the United States and China could find themselves at war in the next decade. In policy circles, this appears as unlikely as it would be unwise.

And yet 100 years on, World War I offers a sobering reminder of man’s capacity for folly. When we say that war is “inconceivable,” is this a statement about what is possible in the world—or only about what our limited minds can conceive? In 1914, few could imagine slaughter on a scale that demanded a new category: world war. When war ended four years later, Europe lay in ruins: the kaiser gone, the Austro-Hungarian Empire dissolved, the Russian tsar overthrown by the Bolsheviks, France bled for a generation, and England shorn of its youth and treasure. A millennium in which Europe had been the political center of the world came to a crashing halt.

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

[BengalHawk62]

(07-11-2017, 02:27 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I know this thread was resurrected for other reasons, but here is an article that is almost as old as this thread that adds something to the original topic of it: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/

We aren't going to war with China.  Do you wanna know how I know this?  Because its the best thing Trump has ever done so far.  He sent Iowa's great gov'nr to them as our new ambassador, ol' Terry "shakey" Braindead, I mean Branstad.  We finally got rid of that ol' bag o bones!!! 

[Benton]

(07-11-2017, 03:18 PM)BengalHawk62 Wrote: We aren't going to war with China.  Do you wanna know how I know this?  

We aren't going to war with China because US companies spend way too much money convincing lawmakers to create the world's largest logistics and defense company (the U.S. military) so that they can safely transport cheap goods/resources to and from China. 

[StLucieBengal]

(07-11-2017, 02:27 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I know this thread was resurrected for other reasons, but here is an article that is almost as old as this thread that adds something to the original topic of it: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/

Yup, petty nonsense.

[StLucieBengal]

(07-11-2017, 07:21 PM)GMDino Wrote: The Japanese were monsters in that war.

Monsters.

No one who dealt with them would have liked to see them win.

Here is a BRIEF list.

http://www.pacificwar.org.au/JapWarCrimes/Cross-section_JapWarCrimes.html

The amount of lives lost because of FDR's choices since is just staggering. Glad to see you are on with all the American lives lost fighting communism in Korea and Vietnam.

[GMDino]

(07-11-2017, 07:35 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: The amount of lives lost because of FDR's choices since is just staggering.   Glad to see you are on with all the American lives lost fighting communism in Korea and Vietnam.

That is a tremendous spin from what we were discussing.

[StLucieBengal]

(07-11-2017, 07:46 PM)GMDino Wrote: That is a tremendous spin from what we were discussing.

We protected china they fell to communism and now communism dominates that region. We nuked the only one able to stand up.

That's not spin at all.

[Dill]

(07-11-2017, 08:59 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: We protected china they fell to communism and now communism dominates that region.   We nuked the only one able to stand up.  

That's not spin at all.

Actually, that is quite a bit of spin, Lucie. China had been fighting Japan for five years when we entered WWII. We were able to supply China somewhat during points of the war--e.g. the Burma Road before it was cut. We gave them some equipment as we did the Soviets. So it is heavy spin to call this "protecting" China, which bore the brunt of Japanese savagery alone and for years.

Are you implying that we "nuked" the wrong party in that war?  A "progressive" mistake perhaps?

[StLucieBengal]

(07-11-2017, 10:23 PM)Dill Wrote: Actually, that is quite a bit of spin, Lucie. China had been fighting Japan for five years when we entered WWII. We were able to supply China somewhat during points of the war--e.g. the Burma Road before it was cut. We gave them some equipment as we did the Soviets. So it is heavy spin to call this "protecting" China, which bore the brunt of Japanese savagery alone and for years.

Are you implying that we "nuked" the wrong party in that war?  A "progressive" mistake perhaps?

The mistake we made was cutting off Japan from resources because they wanted to attack china.

We pushed Japan into Germany's hands for resources.

[Dill]

(07-11-2017, 11:18 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: The mistake we made was cutting off Japan from resources because they wanted to attack china.  

We pushed Japan into Germany's hands for resources.

I think Japan was already in Germany's hands. They signed the Anti-Comintern Pact in 1936 with Hitler and had a contingent of German "advisors" for their military. The US did not freeze exports to Japan until 1940.

What was the US alternative, in your view?

Was it in the US interest to see an imperial, fascist Japan in control of China and Indochina? And this at a time when nationalist fascist countries were pursuing aggressive policies in Europe?

[Vlad]

(07-11-2017, 10:34 PM)Dill Wrote: Yes, far worse.  When Japanese occupied countries, they didn't just indiscriminately kill. They rounded up hundreds of thousands of women and forced them into prostitution for their soldiers, the tested poison gas on penned up civilians, not to mention biological weapons like the plague. Google "Rape of Nanking" to glimpse photographic evidence of the mass rape and slaughter visited upon that city. Even the Nazi delegation their was horrified at that animality--e.g., raping entire families before bayoneting them all, forcing fathers to have sex with their daughters, women to have sex with dogs, taking pictures of the women they had raped and sending them back home to friends.  Dipping childrens heads in gasoline then lighting them on fire and laughing as they ran around screaming.

Similar to Islamic terrorists.  The only thing missing are gays being thrown off rooftops.

[Vlad]

(07-11-2017, 10:34 PM)Dill Wrote: I think everyone in the world would have preferred bad Communist China to Japan.

No doubt.
https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/SOD.CHAP3.HTM

IMO the most sadistic regime out of the 20th century...worse than Germany or Russia.

But still not as bad as America because we had this racist president FDR who signed an executive order suspending the naturalization of Japanese immigrants and calling for the rounding up of innocent Japanese citizens and sending them to internment camps.
Same thing Trump is doing to poor muslims.

Well liberals have been acting as though he is.

[Dill]

(07-11-2017, 11:47 PM)Vlad Wrote: Similar to Islamic terrorists.  The only thing missing are gays being thrown off rooftops.

That's why we don't want to support right wing nationalism and send the world down the toilet again.

[Dill]

(07-12-2017, 12:16 AM)Vlad Wrote: No doubt.
https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/SOD.CHAP3.HTM

IMO the most sadistic regime out of the 20th century...worse than Germany or Russia.

But still not as bad as America because we had this racist president FDR who signed an executive order suspending the naturalization of Japanese immigrants and calling for the rounding up of innocent Japanese citizens and sending them to internment camps.
Same thing Trump is doing to poor muslims.

Well liberals have been acting as though he is.

They have?  You mean they protest discrimination against minorities?

What does history teach us about rounding up people based on religion and ethnicity and putting them in camps?

[Arturo Bandini]

(05-27-2015, 05:08 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11630185/US-China-war-inevitable-unless-Washington-drops-demands-over-South-China-Sea.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/beijing-warns-we-will-fight-back-over-south-china-sea-in-escalating-battle-of-words-10277147.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-military-sets-course-to-expand-global-reach-as-national-interests-grow/2015/05/26/395fff14-3fb1-4056-aed0-264ffcbbcdb4_story.html




Over our interests and position in the south China sea.  


China is now spending on military 10% higher than their GDP.  So they are stepping up their military to be heavy players on the world stage.   Their partnership with Russia is also making more sense now as well .

Is it me or the name South China sea implies that it is way more to China than to the USA ?

[StLucieBengal]

(07-12-2017, 01:49 AM)Dill Wrote: They have?  You mean they protest discrimination against minorities?

What does history teach us about rounding up people based on religion and ethnicity and putting them in camps?

That democrats are responsible for doing those things.

[Belsnickel]

(07-12-2017, 10:57 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: That democrats are responsible for doing those things.

More like nationalist fear mongers. Isn't a party thing.

[Dill]

(07-12-2017, 12:22 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: More like nationalist fear mongers. Isn't a party thing.

Darn it. Lucie is suspended again just as things are getting interested.

I would really like to learn where some of his alternative history comes from.  

[Arturo Bandini]

(07-12-2017, 04:54 PM)Dill Wrote: Darn it. Lucie is suspended again just as things are getting interested.

I would really like to learn where some of his alternative history comes from.  

This is what I was talking about with "having a standing problem with Truth" on the conspiracy thread.

PS : Isn't the guy Sloppy Lombardi Slaps or Golden Arm 9 ?  

[Belsnickel]

Since there was some discussion of Japanese atrocities, I thought it might be apropos to mention I just finished volume one of Barefoot Gen, a semi-auto-biographical graphic novel of a Japanese survivor from Hiroshima. Definitely an interesting piece of art if anyone is interested. Beware, though, there are ten volumes in total.