(03-03-2023, 07:14 PM)Stewy Wrote: Quality vets get released for CAP reasons all the time.

You mean guys like Riley Reiff and La'el Collins?

How did that work out the last 2 years?

(03-03-2023, 07:16 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: You mean guys like Riley Reiff and La'el Collins?

How did that work out the last 2 years?

I realize you are on your sarcastic high horse, but I was referring to players.  I didn't say just tackles.

Chill out angry guy.

(03-03-2023, 07:16 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: You mean guys like Riley Reiff and La'el Collins?

How did that work out the last 2 years?

Dalton Shultz is probably getting cut and he’s sure as hell is one of the leagues best 32 TEs

(03-03-2023, 07:28 PM)Housh Wrote: Dalton Shultz is probably getting cut and he’s sure as hell is one of the leagues best 32 TEs

I thought he was a free agent?  

(03-03-2023, 07:14 PM)Stewy Wrote: Quality vets get released for CAP reasons all the time.

Exactly and sometimes they’re so good you’re like “what the hell are they thinking?”

It happens though….. especially if guys are due roster bonuses or anything like that.

VII. Things the DON'T HAPPEN.

1) Higgins extension. But I think we have at least 2 years of Tee. Worst comes to worst, we tag him next year.

2) Keeping both Apple & Flowers. With Chido iffy, I think we want some CB depth. But it is rare we pay ANY backuo $2 mil. Apple will cost more than that & Flowers will be close. 2 guys at the same position? Nope.

3) A lot of cap space going unused.

Duke said we were gonna spend close to the cap. If we whiff on bringing back one of our big FAs (Bell, Hurst, Pratt), that $$ gets spent elsewhere to help the team (Wagner, Schultz, etc).

(03-03-2023, 07:22 PM)Stewy Wrote: I realize you are on your sarcastic high horse, but I was referring to players.  I didn't say just tackles.

Chill out angry guy.

Not really. We were talking about getting tackles that were cut around free agency. I was just pointing out that the best you can hope for is an older guy on a year or two contract or someone that's not really that good. Example being Reiff and Collins the last 2 years.

Any sarcasm isn't directed at you. It's more "whoo hoo. let's go dumpster diving for linemen to protect our elite QB. yaaaaay!".

(03-03-2023, 07:43 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Exactly and sometimes they’re so good you’re like “what the hell are they thinking?”

It happens though….. especially if guys are due roster bonuses or anything like that.

I'd be interested to know who this (or these) guys are. 

(03-03-2023, 02:28 PM)Joelist Wrote: This is not about what we WANT them to do but a bit of a test of prognostication - what do you (we) think they WILL do?

For me, I'll start with the big stuff. They will let Bates walk. We will either see a Burrow extension or a Higgins extension (possibly both but less likely).

Big reach prediction (as in lowest odds of being right) - Mixon gets cut but they do it when the cap hit is minimal.

Other possible cuts - Adeniji (please?), D'Ante Smith

Free Agency - depth pieces mostly with exception being a "Reiff" type signing at OT.

Draft - we go OT, RB, WR (need a more explosive piece behind Boyd) LB, CB (not in this order necessarily).

What do YOU think they WILL do?

Since Bengals just went to AFC Championship 2 years in a row for first time in franchise history, beating Chiefs 1 or those 2 Championships, both games close in Kansas City, and Super Bowl close in Rams home stadium. Added to fact Bengals are not an old team as Brady & Gronk in last years, but more of a young team as Brady and Gronk starting out.  Then The Bengals would love to keep this team together.  This is not the time to blow it up and start all over.  

So The Bengals would love to keep everybody on the team, but the salary cap makes that impossible.  

The Bengals Front Office has already said that Priority Number One is to resign Joe Burrow long term to  avoid free agency after this season.  They need to lock their franchise quarterback in. He is already the most winning play-off QB than any Bengal QB ever, ahead of Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason. 

The Bengals say everything else is based on resigning Joe Borrow.  They say it is the reason they caved on Paul Brown Stadium and sold the name on stadium rights to come up with more money needed to keep  Joe Burrow.  

Add in that next year they must resign Chase.  They will want the LSU Burrow to Chase combination because playing together in college and pros, their timing is next  to perfect after year of reps together. 

So Bengals have to make salary cap room for not jut Burrow this year, but Chase next year.  

So as much as Bengals would love to keep the entire team together, it's not salary cap possible.  I can tell you this much, Burrow and Chase are going to be together like Brady and Gronk or Mahomes and Kelce.  Bengals will do whatever it takes to resign Burrow and Chase long term.   To do so, we will lose some fan favorites, but Burrow to Chase is going to be expensive to resign in 2023 and 2024. but you want that combo in Cincy a long time.  Don Meredith said it takes years for a QB to get the timing on a pass catcher. The rare thing with Burrow to Chase is their college years together at LSU. Bengals know they need to lock that rare timing in long term.

(03-04-2023, 11:35 AM)kevin Wrote: Since Bengals just went to AFC Championship 2 years in a row for first time in franchise history, beating Chiefs 1 or those 2 Championships, both games close in Kansas City, and Super Bowl close in Rams home stadium. Added to fact Bengals are not an old team as Brady & Gronk in last years, but more of a young team as Brady and Gronk starting out.  Then The Bengals would love to keep this team together.  This is not the time to blow it up and start all over.  

So The Bengals would love to keep everybody on the team, but the salary cap makes that impossible.  

The Bengals Front Office has already said that Priority Number One is to resign Joe Burrow long term to  avoid free agency after this season.  They need to lock their franchise quarterback in. He is already the most winning play-off QB than any Bengal QB ever, ahead of Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason. 

The Bengals say everything else is based on resigning Joe Borrow.  They say it is the reason they caved on Paul Brown Stadium and sold the name on stadium rights to come up with more money needed to keep  Joe Burrow.  

Add in that next year they must resign Chase.  They will want the LSU Burrow to Chase combination because playing together in college and pros, their timing is next  to perfect after year of reps together. 

So Bengals have to make salary cap room for not jut Burrow this year, but Chase next year.  

So as much as Bengals would love to keep the entire team together, it's not salary cap possible.  I can tell you this much, Burrow and Chase are going to be together like Brady and Gronk or Mahomes and Kelce.  Bengals will do whatever it takes to resign Burrow and Chase long term.   To do so, we will lose some fan favorites, but Burrow to Chase is going to be expensive to resign in 2023 and 2024. but you want that combo in Cincy a long time.  Don Meredith said it takes years for a QB to get the timing on a pass catcher.   The rare thing with Burrow to Chase is their college years together at LSU.  Bengals know they need to lock that rare timing in long term.

Burrow will not be a FA after this year, nor Chase after next. 5th year options for both will be exercised. Even as we extend them. The big bumps will come in 2025 for Burrow and 2026 foir Chase. 

Now, certainly guys we sign now to 3 or 4 year deals will overlap when those extensions hit. And guys like Higgins and Wilson would have their new deals kick in in 2024. 

The big challenge will be to identify the guys who either: 

1) Make so much on the open market we decide that keeping them would cost us too much elsewhere.

2) Are fine players but we have a cheaper, roughly equivalent player ready to take over. 

3) Are a bit overpaid for their production. 

Or some combination. 

But you are correct. We think this is a super bowl quality team & want to keep the core together as much as possible. 

(03-03-2023, 11:20 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Not really. We were talking about getting tackles that were cut around free agency. I was just pointing out that the best you can hope for is an older guy on a year or two contract or someone that's not really that good. Example being Reiff and Collins the last 2 years.

Any sarcasm isn't directed at you. It's more "whoo hoo. let's go dumpster diving for linemen to protect our elite QB. yaaaaay!".

I don't follow what goes on as much as the rest of you, but what I expect is that, since the Bengals showed that they were willing to break their mold and go get quality lineman in FA, i would be entirely unsurprised if they didn't do the same this FA and make a single bigger splash than the three last year.  You have to protect the franchise.  The OL potentially cost us two Super Bowls and the window is now and the Bengals FO isn't full of idiots.  

In regard to the potential of the "cuts" opportunities, we'll have to see.  There's always surprises as to who gets cut, so we won't know who until we know.  Perhaps there will be no surprises at OT, perhaps so.  We have to wait and see.  Though I am sure Duke and the FO's plan is better than "Hope that quality OT gets cut and we can sign him".

I've gave mine in other posts but I want to follow up with some of you that are guessing Burrow's extension happens deep into free agency. Is the holdup the market (like Jackson's new deal) or the FO's handling? I'd assume that the FO would be smart to concede him being the highest paid QB asap but want to get ahead of it because of how it impacts their entire offseason. Not only for structuring a Higgins extension but even pulling forward money for Reader.

(03-04-2023, 01:45 PM)Stewy Wrote: I don't follow what goes on as much as the rest of you, but what I expect is that, since the Bengals showed that they were willing to break their mold and go get quality lineman in FA, i would be entirely unsurprised if they didn't do the same this FA and make a single bigger splash than the three last year.  You have to protect the franchise.  The OL potentially cost us two Super Bowls and the window is now and the Bengals FO isn't full of idiots.  

In regard to the potential of the "cuts" opportunities, we'll have to see.  There's always surprises as to who gets cut, so we won't know who until we know.  Perhaps there will be no surprises at OT, perhaps so.  We have to wait and see.  Though I am sure Duke and the FO's plan is better than "Hope that quality OT gets cut and we can sign him".

I get the feeling that they're trying to keep last year's team intact as much as possible. I can see that line of thinking for the short term but i don't know that it's the best for the longer term. Having to pay the guys they'll have to pay means they're going to have to lose something down the road, or they're going to lose someone down the road because they can't pay everyone. 

I love Tee as much as the next guy but i love the team being as successful as they can even more. You simply can't pay Burrow, Chase and Tee their market value and build a competitive team like they've had the last 2 years, going forward--unless those guys get together and agree that they're going to take less than market value. 

There is still a ways to go before we see how this year's team is put together but there are a lot of big decisions to make. They already said they weren't trading Tee, so that means Burrow is getting paid, Tee is getting paid, Chase is getting paid next year and Mixon already has a big contract. If they're not willing to restructure Mixon's contract or cut him, it will turn into a team that is very offensive-heavy on contracts. That means the defense is going to have to suffer. If that happens, they're going to have to have a large number of hits in the draft and/or find some FA defenders on lesser contracts and hope they hit the same way they did with the guys from the last couple years. 

All of that said, paying all those offensive guys doesn't mean much if you can't protect the QB. I agree that their plan will be better than hoping a quality OT gets cut but the last 2 years have shown that their ability to identify and fix the Oline has not been good. They were decent before injuries hit, but woefully weak on the bench, which ended the season without a ring for the second year in a row. Two of the guys that got hurt have a history of injuries (Williams, Collins) and one was a fluke, so you can't think the line is "fixed" and not have better quality guys coming off the bench.

As unpopular as the prospect of trading Tee is, doing that and cutting or restructuring Mixon seems to be the best way to be able to keep and build several other areas, most notably, focusing on a line that can pass protect and open holes for the running game. 

Great, after typing all that out i now find myself moving back towards 'i don't give a **** mode' again because it's just starting to feel more like they're doing this in the wrong way and we're just in store for more close calls and disappointment in the end. Still a lot of time for things to change and for it to come together and look better then than it does now. We'll see...

The guys we will shed are the guys who make a lot and are just average guys.

A. The End is Near.
1. Mixon. $12.76 mil. Save $7+ mil with waive. $10+ after June 1. Team option at $13.1 mil for 2024. No way that gets picked up. Maybe one more year. Probably restructure waived.

2. Jonah Williams. $12.6 mil. FA after this year. Is fully guaranteed, so cannot waive.

3. La'el Collins. $9.38 mil. $3.33 dead cap. $8.6/$1.6 next year.

I think we will let Carman try to win RT until Collins gets healthy and see if Jonah bounces back. If 2 of those guys ball out, we don't have a tackle problem, really. If 1 does, we need one next year. If 2 do, then we need 2. But Jonah & Collins sre not horrible when healthy, and neither was Carman at LT.

Past that? BJ Hill & Hubbard & Boyd are all right around $10 mil. Chido is at $8 mil. Got to pay Reader & Hendrickson.

I think they will:
A) install phone chargers in the players’ lockers
B) start ordering a bunch of catered “box lunches” to be delivered every afternoon in case anyone wants dinner
C) have someone in the front office meet with new plumbing contractors and probably send out an RFP to make sure facility maintenance is up to standard.
D) take some meetings with local engineering firms to identify any potential electrical or civil/mechanical upgrade projects; i.e. you don’t only have to meet with big-time architects to design huge projects for new walkways and shopping areas and stuff.

Obviously the Bengals could and should go way above and beyond these measures, but these are absolute no-brainers to anyone who’s ever managed or ran any sort of business.

(03-03-2023, 02:28 PM)Joelist Wrote: This is not about what we WANT them to do but a bit of a test of prognostication - what do you (we) think they WILL do?

For me, I'll start with the big stuff. They will let Bates walk. We will either see a Burrow extension or a Higgins extension (possibly both but less likely).

Big reach prediction (as in lowest odds of being right) - Mixon gets cut but they do it when the cap hit is minimal.

Other possible cuts - Adeniji (please?), D'Ante Smith

Free Agency - depth pieces mostly with exception being a "Reiff" type signing at OT.

Draft - we go OT, RB, WR (need a more explosive piece behind Boyd) LB, CB (not in this order necessarily).

What do YOU think they WILL do?

Pretty much the same as you Joelist. Bates, Pratt leave. Burrow extension, Bell extension, a couple year extension for Hurst, bring 
back Perine. Cut Mixon when it is best served. Too bad it will most likely be after the Draft, we will see. Wait on one of Donavan Smith 
or Tayor Lewan to be cheap and bring in at least one of or both these guys and Draft an OT and a pass blocking RB. Add a WR in the
Draft that can replace a bit of what Boyd does, gets you the 3rd downs underneath etc.

Think we look to extend Tee next Offseason.

The Bengals have met with distinctly more tight ends and running backs than any other position so far at the combine, as far as reported visits go.

— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) March 4, 2023

This is a tricky question because in the 2020 off season, I wanted us to sign a bunch of offensive linemen, but we instead signed Reader, Waynes and Bell (Not that I'm complaining, 2 of those 3 were incredible signings).

In the 2021 off season, I still wanted us to sign a bunch of offensive linemen, but I thought "well, they didn't last season, so we must not value offensive linemen enough to justify the free agent price tag." And then we signed 3 new starting offensive linemen. It was amazing.

So I can think I know what the Bengals will do, but I've been wrong both times in the last 2 years.

I THINK the Bengals will re-sign Bell, Perine, Apple, Allen, Maybe Hurst if his price didn't skyrocket, hopefully Flowers and then, for external free agents add a mid tier RT (Not Taylor or McGlinchey, maybe Eluemunor is the high end of who they'll look at) and, if the price is right, a back up guard to take over for Scharping (who I don't think they'll re-sign). I also think they'll extend Burrow and I give it a 25% chance they extend Higgins and a 15% chance they extend Wilson as well.

Then, in the draft, I expect that they look to add a good weapon at TE, a speedy RB, a versatile CB (Hilton and Awuzie are entering free agency next year and Apple, if he's re-signed, will likely be another 1 year deal, so we're going to need CB depth fast), a wide receiver who can replace Boyd in 2024 and some depth on the offensive and defensive lines is always a plus.

If they find a really good deal at RB in the 2nd round (say, a Jahmyr Gibbs drops), I could see them cutting or re-negotiating with Mixon as well.

It'll be interesting to see how they utilize their cap space this season. It's pretty big this year, but it will cut down in the next two years as Burrow's extension kicks in. Do they use it to go all in? Or do they front load some contracts to even out their cap space over the next 3 years (rolling over some as well, perhaps?). If I'm honest, I'd expect the latter more than the former because we've never been a team known to manipulate the cap, but maybe the reality that we were 3 points away from winning the Super Bowl and then 3 points away from returning to the Super Bowl will be the kick in the pants this front office needs to realize they need to maximize this window before Burrow's extension kicks in 2 years from now.

If they do go all in, there's a chance they could extend Reader and/or Hendrickson to lower their cap hit this year to see if they can bring in one or two big free agents, but I'm not exactly sure who that would be. I'd love a Javon Hargrave or Jawaan Taylor, but I'm not sure if they're as uneasy about RT as the fans are.

This is based on what I think they might do, at least from what they've said and based what cap will be available, and what money saving moves they can realistically be able to do.

Using the cap calculator, and accounting for extensions for Joe and Tee (I think they are both done by August)...as well as cap for draft/PS, this is what I came up with:

I have them freeing up money by cutting Mixon and doing a simple restructure on Trey. I think they hang onto Collins and wait to see where he is in training camp / preseason.

I have them re-signing:

QB Brandon Allen     1 yr- 1.25m 
RB Samaje Perine     2 yr - 5.75m   
SS Vonn Bell            3 yr- 22.5m   
TE- Hayden Hurst     2 yr- 12m   
CB- Tre Flowers        1 yr- 2.1m
CB- Jalen Davis        1 yr- 1.35m 
TE- Mitchell Wilcox           min
LB- Joe Bachie                 min
RB- Trayveon Williams      min
WR- Trent Taylor              min

And adding in free agency:

RT- Jermaine Eluemunor     2 yr- 8m   
ST- Cameron Fleming          1 yr- 2m
G- Will Hernandez               1 yr- 2.5m
CB- Jonathan Jones            2 yr- 11.75m  
DL- Morgan Fox                  2 yr- 9m    
DL- Justin Houston              1 yr- 3m

They address the o-line by getting a potential starter at RT in Elemunor (who can also play both G spots), a veteran swing tackle in Fleming and interior depth in Hernandez. If Carman can win RT, then Eluemunor becomes a top notch versatile backup. The line would be:

LT   Williams
LG   Volson
C     Karras
RG   Cappa
RT   Eluemunor / Carman

ST       Fleming 
ST/G    Carman / Eluemunor
G         Hernandez
C         Hill / Brown / Rookie

On defense, Fox and Houston add pash rush from the interior and edge. Jones is a quality, versatile vet who can play outside, in the slot and even safety in a pinch. These guys give Lou 3 more proven pieces to utilize.

I only see Mixon being cut if we take a RB in the first round, MAYBE the second if it's someone who falls in our laps. We're not tight for cap space yet... but the year after I don't think Mixon will be here.