(07-05-2025, 11:40 AM)chrisball96 Wrote: I think the guys they signed could be solid, and if our injured players on defense come back and play well we will be in good shape. A lot is up in the air, and when we have Burrow, Chase, and Tee, we won’t be out of any game at any time.

Not trying to be overly negative but we have to have quite a few things go right and you are correct, time will tell.

1000%

(07-05-2025, 11:45 AM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: But the data can tell you how much to realistically expect from a player. I'm not even sure what players we have that we could say fall into this category? Mims looks like he can be solid albeit still with injury concerns. Jenkins and Jackson look to be decent rotational players but this might be the most intriguing Jackson played better at the end of the season and Jenkins played worse. Other guys have more years/data so they are probably what they are at this point.

You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

(07-06-2025, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds....   and went in to be exceptional players....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got many good rotations due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

You do understand that some players play on first and second down but leave the field on third downs? Hence, the term rotational player. It's neither here nor there, but it is actually a very real thing. 

(07-06-2025, 12:47 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: You do understand that some players play on first and second down but leave the field on third downs? Hence, the term rotational player. It's neither here nor there, but it is actually a very real thing. 

I know that the jury is still out on first year players ..mostly..and to make concrete determinations after their rookie season is not productive

(07-06-2025, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional  nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or  busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

I meant decent rotational players as a compliment. The data is always being adjusted and sure there is times it's wrong and then it's adjusted. Cherry picking the few out of many and saying the data gets it wrong while ignoring the vast majority it gets right is not a good strategy. Using metrics doesnt prove success or failure you just try and limit your risk.

(07-06-2025, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional  nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or  busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

So the understanding of probability escapes you...

(07-06-2025, 08:13 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: So the understanding of probability escapes you...

Pretty much. 

There are 4 HoFers from the 6th round of the draft.
There are 137 HoFers from the 1st round of the draft.

There are more Hall of Famers from the 1st round than 2nd-27th rounds + UDFAs... combined.

The 2007 1st round draft picks alone have already produced as many HoFers (4) as the 6th round has in NFL history combined. Sure Tom Brady will eventually add another 6th rounder, but Adrian Peterson (and potentially Marshawn Lynch) will add another 2007 1st rounder.

- - - - - 

Goes beyond HoF, too... the previous 5 drafts (2020-2024) there were 1,292 draft picks and of those 76 of them have been Pro Bowlers, with 41 of them being 1st rounders (so 41 out of 159 or 25.8% of them) and 18 of them being 2nd rounders (so 18 out of 160 or 11.3% of them) leaving just 17 for 3rd-7th round combined (so 17 out of 973 or 1.7% of them).

And yet the 2025 HOF class is: Sterling Sharpe (1st round), Eric Allen (2nd), Jared Allen (4th), and Antonio Gates (UDFA).
And while we can safely say that Burrow is better than Tee and Chase is better than Carman Jackson, are we sure that Mims is better than Jenkins, Miles Murphy is better than DJ Turner, or Dax Hill is better than CTB?
The Bengals never believe that their players are what they are or they would have paid Hendrickson, signed a FA CB, and not played Cordell Volson for 3 years. With the coaching changes IMO they are moving too deliberately, but we'll see.

(07-05-2025, 11:40 AM)chrisball96 Wrote: I think the guys they signed could be solid, and if our injured players on defense come back and play well we will be in good shape. A lot is up in the air, and when we have Burrow, Chase, and Tee, we won’t be out of any game at any time.

Not trying to be overly negative but we have to have quite a few things go right and you are correct, time will tell.

agree with the core offense, i would add Brown into that mix also, in the end the biggest factor in NFL is health.  Studies show that the healthier teams have a much higher percentage to making the playoffs. 

(07-06-2025, 08:08 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I meant decent rotational players as a compliment. The data is always being adjusted and sure there is times it's wrong and then it's adjusted. Cherry picking the few out of many and saying the data gets it wrong while ignoring the vast majority it gets right is not a good strategy. Using metrics doesnt prove success or failure you just try and limit your risk.

I think by mid october of this year..we all will have a much better feel for the youngef players and their capabilities..rotational or otherwise

(07-07-2025, 02:41 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: I think by mid october of this year..we all will have a much better feel for the youngef players and their capabilities..rotational or otherwise

Thank you once again, Captain Obvious, for that deep dive. Does that mean i can expect you not to post until the middle of the season now?

(07-04-2025, 10:56 AM)t3r3e3 Wrote: You still have to have legit players to make it all work.  Going dumpster diving on the Lucas Patrick and Cody Fords of the world, hoping subpar athletes like Geno Stone and Jordan Battle won’t get exposed again, and hoping a very thin CB room will stay healthy isn’t an inspiring strategy.  Coaches can coach, but players have to play, and some of the Bengals position groups are weak AF.  There are glaring holes on this roster that haven’t truly been resolved via FA and the Draft, and there’s still the looming spectacle of Hendrickson and Shemar.

I think Patrick and Fairchild will be good in pass pro. But I think not addressing safety was a huge miss. The offense is strong. The WR position group excellent and RB improved.

(07-04-2025, 11:45 AM)sandwedge Wrote: I seriously doubt 90% of people here had ever heard of Patrick before we got him in FA. Ford is a good back up and play well I thought filling in for Brown and Mims.
Again, Golden's scheme and philosophy is different than Lou's. Maybe Stone and Battle will fit better. I do agree there are holes still, but you can only do so much in 1 off season. I still believe this D doesn't have to be great but average and this team will be back in the playoff picture again.
I think Hendrickson will be extended and Shemar, I couldn't care less about him.

If the pass pro is improved and the defense we will be in the mix with Buffalo,KC, and Balt. But I don’t think they helped the defense much. 

(07-08-2025, 11:03 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Thank you once again, Captain Obvious, for that deep dive. Does that mean i can expect you not to post until the middle of the season now?

Eric1’s favorite meal to pair with his Pappy

(07-06-2025, 08:08 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I meant decent rotational players as a compliment. The data is always being adjusted and sure there is times it's wrong and then it's adjusted. Cherry picking the few out of many and saying the data gets it wrong while ignoring the vast majority it gets right is not a good strategy. Using metrics doesnt prove success or failure you just try and limit your risk.

2nd 3rd 4th 5th rounders make up the majority of rosters on NFL theres your data

(07-08-2025, 01:20 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: 2nd 3rd 4th 5th rounders make up the majority of rosters on NFL  theres your data

Damn. I never would have realized that 4+ other rounds means there are more of those than just 1 round. 

Is that because there are so many more picks after the first round, then there is for just the 1st round? 

TJ’s quote from the following article on his contract frustrations highlights how inept the Brown family is on running a team.  They spent $24 million signing washed up Cole and Bryant but all they had to do was give TJ the money.  There wouldn’t be the drama and they had a proven WR.  We seen this before with Whitworth.  Now they are doing it with Trey and the backup isn’t signed.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/allbengals-insiders-plus/former-bengals-star-highlights-contract-talk-frustration-01jzn7k5nqr6

(07-06-2025, 12:32 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: You mean like the data on tom brady and many others that were drafted in later rounds.... and became exceptional  nfl players..or do you mean the data on countless players that were drafted in higher rounds and went on to become mediocre players or  busts ....mims jenkins jackson...look to be solid first year players that got good playing time their first year due to injuries on the team..lol@ rotational players

You should probably look up the success rates for Day 3 picks. 

Second round picks are successful less than 50% of the time. By the fourth round we are talking about around 35%... 6th round is in the teens around only 15% of players drafted in the 6th round have successful careers.


I do think the Bengals day 3 picks this year will be successful though. The didn't take an Andrei Iosivas type this year they took 3 very experienced players but with capped upside. 

(07-03-2025, 01:10 PM)ERIC1 Wrote: Bengals defensive rookies were paying much better the last third of the season...bengals hired a new defensive coach and acquired numerous defensive players through the draft and FA..maybe just not the players you wanted..lets have this discussion in October

This dude has to be a troll.

The Bengals OL needs to outplay these summer rankings if the Offense wants to be ELITE. https://t.co/tAxzUF5px8

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) July 9, 2025

(07-09-2025, 08:41 AM)Bronxbengal Wrote: TJ’s quote from the following article on his contract frustrations highlights how inept the Brown family is on running a team.  They spent $24 million signing washed up Cole and Bryant but all they had to do was give TJ the money.  There wouldn’t be the drama and they had a proven WR.  We seen this before with Whitworth.  Now they are doing it with Trey and the backup isn’t signed.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/allbengals-insiders-plus/former-bengals-star-highlights-contract-talk-frustration-01jzn7k5nqr6

TJ was going into his age 32 season when the bengals let him walk. Obviously Bryant didn’t work out, but TO outproduced TJ in 2009 on almost identical targets. TJ only saw one year on the 4 year deal he signed with the Seahawks, and he was declining as a player. Cole’s was another swing and miss. But if they had signed TJ, almost certainly the bengals would have gotten diminishing returns as well. Sure TJ can be frustrated all he wants, but at 32, his best seasons were behind him.