(03-09-2021, 09:10 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I don't understand how this thread has devolved into a sacks vs. pressures debate.

The coversation intially centered around if Lawson was worth the tag amount or not (17 mil).

Show of hands, whether you like sacks, whether you like pressures, or whether you like something cool that maybe I don't even know about yet: Do you think Carl Lawson is worth 17 million dollars a year?

Ok, now we're on to the next question:

If you're one of those that don't think he's worth 17 million, but you do think that we have to keep him: How much is the maximum you'd be willing to pay to keep him? 15 mil max? 14, 13, 12, 11? (Set your own top end market value for him)

Fwiw, I don't think I've even seen anyone say they're opposed to keeping him, they just think he caps out at a certain price. I'd personally have no problem keeping him at something like: 3 years, 26 million dollars, with 10 mil or so guaranteed.

To each their own, but as much as you want to value pressures over sacks (perfectly reasonable), you still have to have an opinion on what you think we should be willing to pay him to stay.

I said during the year I thought he’d bring 15-16 a year on a 3 or 4 year deal this off season, so I think if a tag was needed to get there then yes 17.7 was fine. If he was never going to get to a long term deal with us I tag and trade him to one of the endless teams lining up to get a pass rusher. The market for rushers won’t be nearly as depressed as the rest of the market from what I’ve read.

(03-09-2021, 09:19 PM)Au165 Wrote: I said during the year I thought he’d bring 15-16 a year on a 3 or 4 year deal this off season, so I think if a tag was needed to get there then yes 17.7 was fine. If he was never going to get to a long term deal with us I tag and trade him to one of the endless teams lining up to get a pass rusher. The market for rushers won’t be nearly as depressed as the rest of the market from what I’ve read.

Yup.  I am off the same view as well.  I have a feeling Lawson will have a double digit sack season this year,  especially if the O line is fixed to be able to give JB time to put up points,  because then the defense can get more opportunities to rush the opposition's QB. It's a good risk to take,  and if it doesn't pan out,  we let him walk next year (or trade him now if the trade compensation is very good).

(03-09-2021, 07:35 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Category                   Romeo Okwara         Vs.          Carl Lawson

Age                             25                                                  25
Height                         6'4                                                 6'2
Career Starts                28                                                  14
Career Sacks                20                                                  20
2020 Sacks                  10                                                 5.5
QB Hits                        18                                                  32
2020 Tackles                44                                                  36
2020 Forced Frumbles    3                                                    2
2020 Pass Deflect          1                                                    0

Okwara currently has a market value of 10.1 mil per according to spotrac:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/detroit-lions/romeo-okwara-19531/market-value/

If we can come to a reasonable agreement with Lawson then great.  If not, they are other options available in free agency.

Here's some other examples with market values set by spotrac:

Trey Hendrickson - 10.3 mil https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/trey-hendrickson-21845/market-value/

Justin Houston - 11.5 mil https://overthecap.com/player/justin-houston/517/

Jadeveon Clowney - 6.5 mil https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/jadeveon-clowney-14410/market-value/

Oliver Vernon is another name, which I can't find a valuation on.  But he's an above average defensive end, who will be coming on a discount because of an achilies injury (same injury as Uzomah)

Fwiw, there's load more guys, and this is before any cuts.  Who knows what the market will look like next week.

PS Okwara, Hendrickson, Houston and Veronon all come from base 4-3 systems, with Clowney being the exception (He's just a physical freak that you could take a chance on to fit here)

Not sure if you didn't see it but spotrac has Lawson projected at 8.8M APY. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/carl-lawson-21858/market-value/

(03-09-2021, 07:47 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I would interpret that social media post to mean that talks with the Bengals are still "far apart", and his agent has assured him that the price he's asking will most definitely be paid by some team.

Guess it just depends on if your an opt or a pess. Being a free agent, he's just as much a gun for hire to the Bengals as anyone. 

(03-09-2021, 08:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: Total pressures =sack+hurries+QB hits. This isn’t complicated.

(03-09-2021, 08:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Well since I round up Lawson also had a season with 6 sacks.

It's why most of your dates leave disappointed. 

(03-09-2021, 08:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Rep.

They have even shown that the guy who gets the sack is often no the first player to pressure the QB.  Often times the best pass rusher forces the QB to step up in the pocket or run from the pocket where he is eventually sacked by another player who did not get the initial pressure.

But this doesn't happen with Lawson. Who else on the line is eating off his "hurries"? I'd be more ok with tagging him if we can point to who benefits from his hurries/double teams etc.

The final official numbers on tagging Lawson would have been $16.1M and Jackson $15.1M.

Will be very curious to see where both their contracts land through that lens.

— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) March 10, 2021

(03-09-2021, 06:48 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Not a chance.  There's no way Carl Lawson is worth anywhere near the franchise tag, much less "easily worth" that amount.

You don't franchise guys that had 1 good but not great year, with 14 career starts, and who missed 13 of the 32 games the two years prior.  Not especially when they're coming off 5.5 sacks.

You can mock the sacks total all you like, but that's what drives the market more than anything else for edge rushers.  No one is saying pressures and QB hits are meaningless, but you won't find too many DE's with sub 10 sacks inking 17 million dollar deals the following seasons.

Fwiw, spotrac has Lawson's market value at 8.8 mil per, projected out at a 3 year 30.3 million dollar deal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/carl-lawson-21858/market-value/

I wouldn't pretend this site is dead accurate, because no one can set the values other than the teams spending the money.  But they're usually in the right ballpark when it comes to these.  They may be a little low on this one, because his price will go up in weaker FA class for his position.   But it won't go up all that much.

I'll personally be really surprised if Lawson sees north of 12 mil per. (I think that number lies in 8-12 range)  And I'll eat my hat, take a video of me doing it and post it on here, if he see 16+ mil.

I have to agree with this....I Like Lawson but at the appropriate price.  Matt Judon is avaiable I hear, and he would warrant more close to that Franchise Tag $. Who would everyone prefer? Judon or maybe Shaq Barrett or Lawson at 16 to 17M per yr?  

(03-09-2021, 07:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Our pass efficiency defense with Lawson ranked higher (22nd) than our pass efficiency offense with Burrow (25th).

So why does your logic only apply to one side of the argument?  Why is Lawson judged only on team stats while Burrow is not?  Why does pressure matter when talking about our QB but not opposing QBs?

How much of the alleged superior pass defense efficiency was the result of teams being able to run the ball down our throat?

I'm just asking  question not stating an opinion?

I will defend Burrow on the grounds that the o line was and has been atrocious. No running game and how many sacks and hurries every game?
What can you expect even from an outstanding rookie QB given these circumstances?

You know more than me but given the Bengals spending habits I would focus on building the o line and getting Burrow another elite weapon and realize the defense is goin to take a couple of years

I doubt that they have the money or expertise to "fix" the o and the d with one draft and one free agency class. Therefore I'm focusing on helping Burrow.