How good can Tee Higgins be?

[bengaloo]

(04-13-2021, 01:05 PM)Whatever Wrote: I'm not as down on Sample as most.  He's not bad, just mediocre and overdrafted.  If you look at his Next Gen Stats, pretty much everything is average.  You also have to look at usage when discussing separation. Sample has a big separation because he's often a safety valve out in the flat, running TE screens, etc. Sample is basically the guy who will make the catches he's supposed to make and get the yards he's supposed to get out of them, but won't give you anything extra. On the other side, you'll have WR1's that don't have high separation numbers because they're doubled consistently and/or drawing the other team's #1 CB. 

The bigger issue is Burrow threw the 3rd highest % of passed to targets with a defender within 1 yard of them and the 5th worst expected completion % last year.  When you compare that to the numbers of playoff QB's, it quickly becomes apparent that having your QB try to repeatedly force throws in to covered targets isn't a recipe for winning football.  Beyond any individual player, the Bengals need to get dramatically better as a team in this area.

The biggest issue is Burrow was under pressure so fast all the time. Having to get rid of the ball early because your QB is under pressure very quickly on almost every pass play would make that stat and other stats look worse. Stats like that just dont tell the whole story when you have an OL as bad as ours. We couldn't even try to go deep often because there was simply no time for Burrow to wait for the play to develop and WR's to get open without scrambling for his life first. Not to say we dont need more speed at WR because we do, but that speed WR isnt going to keep Burrow protected, which was the #1 issue on the team hands down, obviously considering we are all now hoping Burrow is really 100% for camp after knee surgery. A WR could get 5 yards of separation downfield every single pass play and it wouldn't matter if Burrow doesnt have time. He didnt have time. Dalton didnt have time the last couple years before that either. The OL is swiss cheese. 

[KillerGoose]

(04-13-2021, 01:55 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: My reading comprehension is fine. Your debate skills are weak. You took a HOF and said because he may have gotten caught from behind, we should just ignore Tee’s lack of breakaway speed. I never said you have to be fast to be great, I pointed out a weakness in game. His speed is a weakness. Can he make up for it in other ways? Sure, but ignoring his weakness to try and propel him to some future all-star is pretty weak.

Yeah, you’re still missing what I am saying. You said that Tee getting caught from behind WILL be what keeps him from being a great #1. You provided reasoning prior that it was the difference between a sure TD and possibly getting stuck with three. You finished by stating that it was an example of his lack of breakaway speed. That was your statement, not mine.

I simply responded saying that this is ridiculous to say and I brought up the fact that Calvin was caught from behind. Then I posed the question. Does the simple fact that Calvin has been caught from behind before prevent him from being considered a great WR?

No, of course it doesn’t. Why? Because there are several other traits that WRs can possess that make them dominant. Now, obviously Calvin DID have breakaway speed which just goes to show that even being fast doesn’t work all of the time.

Tee possesses the size, route running capability and strength to become a great top target. His speed doesn’t change that.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-12-2021, 07:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: In an effort to find new Bengal topics to discuss as well as being a Clemson homer myself, wanted to have a real discussion about just how good Higgins can become.

Let's remember the stats from year 1:

67 rec 908 yards 13.6 yards per rec 6 TDs

Historically, WRs take the first year to adjust and then start to improve, there have been exceptions such as Justin Jefferson last season, and even A.J. in his first year.

But normally, you see a rookie WR start a little slow as they adjust to the game speed and then things start to click mid season and into year two.

For example, compare Higgins stat line to this. 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TDs. Those are the numbers of DK Metcalf in his first year before he went off for 1300 yards this year.

Things to consider in Higgins favor:

Burrow wasn't here all season for him and he still had a 900 yard season.

He didn't play week one and had only a single target in the season finale. So, 67 and 908 was in 14 games.


Things that are cause for concern:

While he ran a 4.43 40 at this Pro Day, he didn't show break away speed on the field last season.

Route running still needs to improve.


So, what are your expectations for Tee? What is his ceiling?

Tee is our #1 WR at the moment and could be one of the best in the NFL with his size, hands and route running. He also has 
chemistry with Burrow already. Very smart as well and plays faster on the field similar to what AJ was. As others have said he 
ran more of a 4.54 than a 4.43 forty at his Pro Day. Tee is great at using his body and going up for balls.

If the O-line improves and we add one more weapon to take pressure off of him and Burrow I could see Tee being one of our
best WR's of all time. His ceiling is extremely high, on top of that he was a Bengal fan before we drafted him. Love the guy.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-13-2021, 02:13 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, you’re still missing what I am saying. You said that Tee getting caught from behind WILL be what keeps him from being a great #1. You provided reasoning prior that it was the difference between a sure TD and possibly getting stuck with three. You finished by stating that it was an example of his lack of breakaway speed. That was your statement, not mine.

I simply responded saying that this is ridiculous to say and I brought up the fact that Calvin was caught from behind. Then I posed the question. Does the simple fact that Calvin has been caught from behind before prevent him from being considered a great WR?

No, of course it doesn’t. Why? Because there are several other traits that WRs can possess that make them dominant. Now, obviously Calvin DID have breakaway speed which just goes to show that even being fast doesn’t work all of the time.

Tee possesses the size, route running capability and strength to become a great top target. His speed doesn’t change that.

But Tee isn’t DOMINANT in any of those categories, at least not yet. He’s not elite in anything yet. So until he becomes dominant or elite in those other categories, his speed will still be elevated as an issue whether you want to believe it or not. Speed also determines how coverages run. Going to get a lot more press coverage on a slower WR because they aren’t afraid of being burnt over the top. This also crowds the box more. Look, I love Tee and he’s great, but ignoring lack of speed as something that could separate him from the best in the league is ignorant at best, arrogant at worst.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-13-2021, 12:40 PM)Synric Wrote: Auden Tate needs to be a more physical route runner. A guy his size you'd expect him to be but he's not... 

Yep and i wonder if that's something that's ever pointed out to him in films.

[KillerGoose]

(04-13-2021, 02:42 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: But Tee isn’t DOMINANT in any of those categories, at least not yet. He’s not elite in anything yet. So until he becomes dominant or elite in those other categories, his speed will still be elevated as an issue whether you want to believe it or not. Speed also determines how coverages run. Going to get a lot more press coverage on a slower WR because they aren’t afraid of being burnt over the top. This also crowds the box more. Look, I love Tee and he’s great, but ignoring lack of speed as something that could separate him from the best in the league is ignorant at best, arrogant at worst.

I am fully aware of this. Tee was a rookie. There is an expectation of development and if that development doesn’t happen, then that changes the story. I am not arguing that speed simply doesn’t matter. I am arguing that the difference between a 4.5 and a 4.4 isn’t going to make or break a receiver and believing it does, is silly. Tee is fast enough to be a top WR in this league, given other areas of his skillset progress.

This is similar to another common football argument; arm strength. Does arm strength matter? Yes, of course. Is having elite arm strength necessary for being a great QB? No, of course not. Replace arm strength and QB with speed and WR. That’s the argument I have been making. If you don’t agree with that argument, agree to disagree and we can revisit this conversation in a couple of seasons.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-13-2021, 03:01 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I am fully aware of this. Tee was a rookie. There is an expectation of development and if that development doesn’t happen, then that changes the story. I am not arguing that speed simply doesn’t matter. I am arguing that the difference between a 4.5 and a 4.4 isn’t going to make or break a receiver and believing it does, is silly. Tee is fast enough to be a top WR in this league, given other areas of his skillset progress.

This is similar to another common football argument; arm strength. Does arm strength matter? Yes, of course. Is having elite arm strength necessary for being a great QB? No, of course not. Replace arm strength and QB with speed and WR. That’s the argument I have been making. If you don’t agree with that argument, agree to disagree and we can revisit this conversation in a couple of seasons.

You’re the one using his 40 time, I’m using what I’ve seen during the games and him getting caught on the only few times he had green grass in front of him.

We won’t know. The thread is all projection anyway. I think he will be solid for us. But I do not think he will be a top 10 and would prefer him as our #2 to #1, but hey you never know what can happen.

[KillerGoose]

(04-13-2021, 03:22 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: You’re the one using his 40 time, I’m using what I’ve seen during the games and him getting caught on the only few times he had green grass in front of him.

We won’t know. The thread is all projection anyway. I think he will be solid for us. But I do not think he will be a top 10 and would prefer him as our #2 to #1, but hey you never know what can happen.

I was using 40 time because that is what the original poster, who I was responding to, was using. You jumped into that conversation. As a matter of fact, I never originally mentioned Tee’s 40 time. I corrected Whatever’s statement about top WRs and their 40 times and followed that up by saying Tee is plenty fast enough to be a top WR.

[Murdock2420]

(04-13-2021, 02:42 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: But Tee isn’t DOMINANT in any of those categories, at least not yet. He’s not elite in anything yet. So until he becomes dominant or elite in those other categories, his speed will still be elevated as an issue whether you want to believe it or not. Speed also determines how coverages run. Going to get a lot more press coverage on a slower WR because they aren’t afraid of being burnt over the top. This also crowds the box more. Look, I love Tee and he’s great, but ignoring lack of speed as something that could separate  him from the best in the league is ignorant at best, arrogant at worst.

If he polishes up his route running which I really think he'll be able to do (we've done good work on other WRs like Jones, and Sanu) and puts in the work, would he not be able to become a dominate WR? Even with the lack of speed? Dez Bryant was never the fastest dude on the field, but he was a monster for several years in Dallas (till he got into the injured part of his career) and Tee is 2 inches taller.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-13-2021, 03:51 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If he polishes up his route running which I really think he'll be able to do (we've done good work on other WRs like Jones, and Sanu) and puts in the work, would he not be able to become a dominate WR? Even with the lack of speed? Dez Bryant was never the fastest dude on the field, but he was a monster for several years in Dallas (till he got into the injured part of his career) and Tee is 2 inches taller.

Absolutely, nice post Murdock.

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 12:48 PM)PDub80 Wrote: So, now you know more than Nextgen Football? So, now you know more than fivethirtyeight? https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-metric-shows-how-good-nfl-receivers-are-at-creating-separation/amp/

The SOE numbers in this article have nothing to do with the nextgen separation stats you keep citing.

But I would like to point out one thing.  According to this article   In 2018 Jarvis Landry had an exceptional year according to his "separation over expected".  Not only was it the 4th best in the league that year it was also the 13th best over a three year span ('17-'19).  Here is his production that year

81 rec... 976 yds... 12.0 avg... 54.4 catch %... 6.6 yds/target... 13 rec 20+ yds

Then in 2019 Landry had a HORRIBLE year according to his "separation over expected".  It was the 6th worst that year and the 13th worst over the same three year span.  Here is his production that year

83 rec... 1174 yds... 14.1 avg... 60.1 catch %... 8.5 yds/target... 20 rec 20+ yds

So while they provide  lot of fancy talk about how complicated and exact their formulas and analysis are in the end it looks like it is a completely useless stat.

**waits patiently for Pdub to personally attack me instead of explaining why Landry's SOE has a NEGATIVE correlation to his actual production**

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 01:05 PM)Whatever Wrote: The bigger issue is Burrow threw the 3rd highest % of passed to targets with a defender within 1 yard of them and the 5th worst expected completion % last year.  When you compare that to the numbers of playoff QB's, it quickly becomes apparent that having your QB try to repeatedly force throws in to covered targets isn't a recipe for winning football.  

This is like the stat about how teams win because they run more often when in fact teams that are winning run the ball more often because they are ahead.

People are confusing "correlation" with "causation".

Burrow HAD to force more passes into tight targets because he had zero running game and was always behind.  The playoff QBs are usually in much fewer "third-and-long" situations, and they are usually ahead more often so they can just play it safe and check-down or punt instead of forcing dangerous low-efficiency passes.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-13-2021, 03:51 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If he polishes up his route running which I really think he'll be able to do (we've done good work on other WRs like Jones, and Sanu) and puts in the work, would he not be able to become a dominate WR? Even with the lack of speed? Dez Bryant was never the fastest dude on the field, but he was a monster for several years in Dallas (till he got into the injured part of his career) and Tee is 2 inches taller.

Yes, he can absolutely. With any weakness, elite skills in other areas mask those deficiencies. A weak armed QB can make up for it by great decision making and accuracy.

[NATI BENGALS]

Interesting article on speed with Tee in it.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-evaluating-on-field-speed-for-henry-ruggs-and-other-top-wide-receiver-prospects/

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think the eventual primary roles of our top four receivers will be pretty evident when they're all here together:

Boyd - possession, third down target
Higgins - red zone target
[insert rookie] - vertical target
Tate - viable backup to both Boyd and Higgins

[PDub80]

(04-13-2021, 08:15 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Interesting article on speed with Tee in it.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-evaluating-on-field-speed-for-henry-ruggs-and-other-top-wide-receiver-prospects/

I think Higgins is fast. He just has "long" speed. The Bengals need at least one EXPLOSIVE target. They have none at the moment.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-13-2021, 10:22 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I think the eventual primary roles of our top four receivers will be pretty evident when they're all here together:

Boyd - possession, third down target
Higgins - red zone target
Chase - vertical target
Tate - viable backup to both Boyd and Higgins

Sure is looking this way after the Tobin and Malik Wright comments as of late.

Will be happy as long as we go OL twice in the 2nd to 4th. 

Welcome aboard BTW.

[PDub80]

(04-13-2021, 04:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is like the stat about how teams win because they run more often when in fact teams that are winning run the ball more often because they are ahead.

People are confusing "correlation" with "causation".

Burrow HAD to force more passes into tight targets because he had zero running game and was always behind.  The playoff QBs are usually in much fewer "third-and-long" situations, and they are usually ahead more often so they can just play it safe and check-down or punt instead of forcing dangerous low-efficiency passes.

The run game is far more than just 5 O linement blocking, though, right? 

A beat writer on a Bengals podcast discussed this. Defenses do NOT and have NOT respected tbe Bengals down field. So, they cheat everyone up. This clogs things for the run game a d with no explosive threat to take the top off or push the top of the defense back, they are able to contain the runners.

That doesn't mean the O line isn't culpable or a major culprit. Or that Mixon isn't, either. It is the sum of all of the parts that adds up to the run game. 

[KillerGoose]

(04-13-2021, 10:22 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I think the eventual primary roles of our top four receivers will be pretty evident when they're all here together:

Boyd - possession, third down target
Higgins - red zone target
[insert rookie] - vertical target
Tate - viable backup to both Boyd and Higgins

Hard to argue this, really. I think Tate really only has a role in the NFL as a depth X in the NFL, so moreso Higgins’ backup than Boyd’s, but yeah. This is how I see it playing out.

Welcome to the board!

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-12-2021, 07:56 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I agree with all the good, so I’ll just touch on some of the “concerns.” There seems to be some discrepancy on what he actually ran at his pro day. I’ve mostly seen his two 40’s at 4.54 and 4.56.

https://theclemsoninsider.com/2020/03/12/higgins-surprised-he-impressed-so-many-at-pro-day/

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tee-higgins-testing-numbers-only-confirm-what-we-knew/

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-draft-evaluating-on-field-speed-for-henry-ruggs-and-other-top-wide-receiver-prospects/

The only place I can find with a claim of 4.43 is a single tweet from PFF, but I’m guessing that’s wrong. Not the biggest deal or anything, but 4.43 would make him faster than AJ at the 2011 combine (4.48), and both my eyes and everything I can find (outside that one tweet) tell me AJ was a bit faster coming out.

He also had more drops last year than I would have liked, but not enough for me to question his hands. I think he can clean that up.

One thing I don’t see brought up much is that despite being awful, AJ was still in fact drawing some CB1’s in at least a few games. I know the Browns had Ward on him, and Philly with Slay off the top off my head. If we don’t go WR at 5, it will be interesting to see how Tee does as “the guy” in an offense for entire season. In a perfect world Mixon is a huge factor, but we all know how Taylor likes to run his offense.

I was going to read the responses before answering and you identified the pro day errors.  He also only had a 31" vertical and 4.53 short shuttle.  All those numbers added up equaled on thing:  He tested in the lower 10th percentile of WRs.  

Now, he had an injury at the end of the season, which might have prevented him from a lot of "combine training" immediately following his bowl game but those numbers were clearly disappointing.  Sure, there are always examples of guys not running a blazing 40 time that go on to be excellent WRs, but all those numbers taken together add up to a lot of contested catches.  Thankfully, that is one of his biggest strengths.  

Burrow also knows how to "throw a guy open", and Higgins also has a massive catch radius.  

Do I love Higgins?  Yes.  Same as Boyd, but that doesn't mean they don't need a WR like Chase.  It reminds me a bit of the Manning-led Colts.  Their belief was that their fourth best receiving option was better than your fourth best cover man, and Manning could find that mismatch quickly.  Your point about AJ still drawing the opposing team's #1 cover guy is valid, and Boyd did against the Ravens (two of the worst offensive outputs we had all season).  Higgins is a bit, reliable target with a massive catch radius that can move the chains, be a weapon in the red zone, and if he draws a team's #3 cover option, make a lot of hey in the year's to come.