Housh gets it

[Murdock2420]

(02-22-2021, 01:04 AM)Whatever Wrote: How many of those FA's can take the top off the defense and provide the deep threat we need?  How many are a legit #1 that we're lacking?  

That's the thing, you're not talking about signing a starting caliber WR as opposed to signing a starting caliber T.  You're talking traditional Bengals C tier FA vs an A tier.  600 yards makes you a "good" starter?  You know 74 guys had 600+ receiving yards last year, right?

That is the single worst draft philosophy I've ever heard.  WJIII was a wasted pick?  Jonah Williams was a wasted pick?  If you're saying a draft pick is wasted if it doesn't increase your win total year one, then you're playing checkers in a chess game.  Plus I already showed you how statistically how it's unlikely a T at 5 is a significant upgrade in year one, which is exactly your definition of a "wasted pick.". You draft OL hoping to groom them so they'll be good starters in a year or two.  You don't draft them looking for an immediate upgrade to fix your line.  

Since when do we need a WR #1??

This team has two high caliber starting WR's and that is the issue with the team??!?


At this point, I just see no point in discussing this anymore. You are in the boat with people who are like Al Davis. Get weapons, and more weapons and ooooohhh.. he runs a 4.2 draft him (Al Davis would have lost it over John Ross). Meanwhile, I've seen really good QBs win playoff games with excellent offensive lines, stout defenses and 1 real threat at WR. (Ravens have 1 legit WR. Browns did better without OBJ, and only one big time WR in Landry, Buffalo has Diggs and .... yeah... how many years was Brady throwing to guys that were cast offs, Green Bay has Adams and then... yup no one.)

So, I hope you get the toy at 5, and then when we pick top 5 in 2022, maybe we'll start re-thinking what is important since drafting another WR early when you already have 2 good ones has worked well for Atlanta, and the Lions and etc, etc.

[Joelist]

The only time last season we got decent play out of the middle of the line was when we had XSF and Spain at the Guard spots. And even then we wound up more and more as the season went on keeping the TE or a RB inline. Burrow may like the whole 5 OL concept but when the offense doesn't have the right personnel to do it you don't - and then work on getting the right personnel.

We BADLY need another good Guard and another Tackle who can play on an island. I'd try to get both either through Free Agency or a trade or a combination so we don't go into the draft in a spot where if Sewell is not there at 5 we are exposed.

[Tony]

I think we all get "it" at this point.....

[EatonFan]

I would not mind Pitts at all, but OT is a need. I'd trade back if Pitts isn't there and try to pick up a 2nd rounder for another shot at an OT.

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-19-2021, 09:05 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: T.J. Houshmandzadeh did an interview with Tyler Dragon and explained how the team should be building around Burrow.

And to those who want to draft Pitts or Chase or anyone that isn't an offensive lineman... you aren't going to like it.

“The Bengals need to focus on keeping (Joe Burrow) protected. They shouldn’t sign or draft any skill players. It should be offensive linemen in the draft (and) offensive linemen in free agency, because you can find a receiver in the third, fourth or fifth round. If the protection is there, Joe is gonna get you the ball.”

The man knows football and as a former 7th round pick, he is a perfect example of why you can't waste the 1st rounder on a skill position when you don't have 5 great starters on the O-line. Sewell, Slater or Darrisaw, one of them will be there at 5 and one of them needs to be the pick.

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2021/02/19/tj-houshmandzadeh-reveals-bengals-build-around-joe-burrow/

Love Housh, but this is just another opinion piece.  

The Bengals whiffed on draft picks Ogbuehi and Fisher, big time.  If they had hit on them, they would have had to open their wallets and pay them.  They didn't.  They are out of the league.  Those losses need addressed, and they did one with the pick of Jonah Williams, and they need a FA to fill the other.  Ditto the guard they drafted in Mike Jordan and the center they drafted in Billy Price.  They filled one hole by moving one of their better guards in Hopkins to center.  They still have a hole at the guard position.  

Look also at Ross.  He was supposed to become the top weapon as Green declined.  They whiffed again.  They had a great draft pick in Higgins that surprised a lot of us.  But that is just one WR.  

Sure, the Bengals could draft offensive linemen, but they really can't afford to miss again.  I would go FA for the G and OT and the WR from the draft...mainly because I don't see Sewell being there.  If he is, great, I will support taking him and putting at LT with Jonah moving to RT.  But if he is gone, reaching of hoping for a trade back to get a lesser OT over Chase makes no sense to me.  The Burrow connection to Chase makes it even easier as that was the one area where the Bengals struggled, the deep ball.  Chase averaged over 20 YPR and was an outstanding connection to Burrow.  

I still believe that Chase helps this offense more than any player in the draft.  

[XenoMorph]

(02-19-2021, 09:09 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: this is also the man that said he had Ross on the right track and would have a breakout year... hmmm... so his word is not golden but totally agree with him.. Dalton was a solid QB but when the line went south so did him and the team... Burrow is the expected franchise QB.. build aline around him.. we will start to see clearly if the potential is reality 

he started that year really good then was injured. 

[Whatever]

(02-22-2021, 01:48 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Since when do we need a WR #1??

This team has two high caliber starting WR's and that is the issue with the team??!?


At this point, I just see no point in discussing this anymore. You are in the boat with people who are like Al Davis. Get weapons, and more weapons and ooooohhh.. he runs a 4.2 draft him (Al Davis would have lost it over John Ross). Meanwhile, I've seen really good QBs win playoff games with excellent offensive lines, stout defenses and 1 real threat at WR. (Ravens have 1 legit WR. Browns did better without OBJ, and only one big time WR in Landry, Buffalo has Diggs and .... yeah... how many years was Brady throwing to guys that were cast offs, Green Bay has Adams and then... yup no one.)

So, I hope you get the toy at 5, and then when we pick top 5 in 2022, maybe we'll start re-thinking what is important since drafting another WR early when you already have 2 good ones has worked well for Atlanta, and the Lions and etc, etc.

We've needed a WR1 ever since AJ hit the wall.  Where have you been?  Notice how the offense nose dived after he went down in '18 and never recovered?

Boys and Higgins are good players, but neither is a WR1.  When we're talking about Burrow forcing throws to well covered targets, Boyd was tied for 94th in generating separation last year and Higgins didn't sniff the top 100.  Not to mention the fact that Boyd completely disappeared late in the year when Tee went down with only 1 catch for 3 yards in the final 2 games of the year.  High caliber, indeed.

Oh yeah, totally.  Anybody that ever considered taking a skill player in the 1st is Al Davis.  It's not like I wasn't prepared to take Cody Ford at 11 if Jonah didn't fall to us in '18.  It's not like I didn't defend the team for double dipping at T in the Og-Fisher draft.  

Was Ross a bust?  Sure.  Is Price a bust?  Yup.  Was Og a bust?  Certainly.  You can't just write position groups off your draft board because you took a swing and missed.

First off, we don't have a really good defense.  We are years away from having a really good defense.  Trying to build an offense that's success is predicated on having a good defense is an exercise in futility.  Secondly, those teams have elite RB's and/or a great 1-2 punch at RB, which we don't have.  They also have great TE's, which we don't have.  Their WR1's are also deep threats that back the S's out of the box for the run game and the TE and can beat them over the top when they sneak up, which we don't have.  And Tom Brady?  Seriously?  That's like saying you should be able to hit that golf shot because Tiger Woods could do it.  You want to steal our opponents defensive signals like the Pats did, too?  And didn't Brady get his knee shredded the same way Burrow did behind those great OL's?  Not to mention he's thrown to 5 different All Pro WR's and an All Pro TE in his career.  Tonyun led all TE's in receiving TD's with 11 last year and Aaron Jones is a beast, but yeah, GB has nothing except for Adams.

Man, the amount of high school level passive aggressiveness is palpable in this last paragraph.  Wasn't Atlanta in the SB a few years ago?  Top 5 picks don't come around very often.  When they do, you need to hit a home run.  That means sticking to your board and not reaching based on some "build through the trenches" draft philosophy.  There are 3 guys I would be ecstatic with getting at 5, Sewell, Chase, and Pitts.  Reaching for a 13-16 prospect like Slater or Darisaw at 5 isn't helping this team   If you're doing that, then it means you didn't do enough to address the  OL in FA.

[Frank Booth]

(02-22-2021, 02:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: We've needed a WR1 ever since AJ hit the wall.  Where have you been?  Notice how the offense nose dived after he went down in '18 and never recovered?

Boys and Higgins are good players, but neither is a WR1. 

I agree that Boyd is a great slot guy. Excellent number 2. One of the best in the league

Higgins? Did you just see what he did in his rookie year? 

He's a WR1 until proven otherwise

[Essex Johnson]

(02-21-2021, 08:35 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Shocking...

Anyway, I’m not taking a guy who is probably better suited to play G at #5. Not unless he’s the second coming of Quenton Nelson, and Slater is not that. And even if he was there will be much better players available at more impactful positions if Sewell is gone (and at least 1-2 QB’s).

I just don’t understand you guys that get so locked in on doing something no matter what. That’s a great way to let some fantastic players slip through our fingers. Unless you need a QB, or are super close to being a legit contender that’s only missing a certain piece, the draft board should always be fairly open.

FA is where you should focus on need no matter what. Not with a top 5 pick.

Glad you are an expert at knowing what and how a player is going to perform... Pitt has been all over the place in mocks.. from 5th to 15th... Slater has also.. Chase tends to be in most top 6th picks... as I stated I have no problem if the Bengals feel a tackle like Slater is a much better upgrade than what we have plus that can move to guard which if needed which actually is a plus can provide more benefit than picking Chase who might still be our 3rd WR behind Boyd and Higgins coming into camp...  

We will continue to disagree .. NO SURPISE 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(02-22-2021, 03:03 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Glad you are an expert at knowing what and how a player is going to perform... Pitt has been all over the place in mocks.. from 5th to 15th... Slater has also.. Chase tends to be in most top 6th picks... as I stated I have no problem if the Bengals feel a tackle like Slater is a much better upgrade than what we have plus that can move to guard which if needed which actually is a plus can provide more benefit than picking Chase who might still be our 3rd WR behind Boyd and Higgins coming into camp...  

We will continue to disagree .. NO SURPISE 

Ah, versatility...just what most teams look for in a top 5 pick!

It’s like Whatever said, a player taken at #5 needs to be an absolute home run. Not just a mere upgrade over some scrub we currently have. You don’t pass on elite playmakers because an olineman can play T and G. Well, you can, but you’re letting some other lucky teams have the higher end players.

And people can talk about “3rd WR” all they want, but in Taylor’s 11 personnel he’s going to see just as many targets (if not more) than Boyd and Tee.

Here’s the numbers from last season:

Boyd - 110 targets

Higgins - 108 targets

Green - 104 targets

If AJ had actually produced off of all those targets we would have had a MUCH different season...

[Whatever]

(02-22-2021, 02:56 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I agree that Boyd is a great slot guy. Excellent number 2. One of the best in the league

Higgins? Did you just see what he did in his rookie year? 

He's a WR1 until proven otherwise

I would put Boyd as a Top 5 slot WR.  I definitely wouldn't put him ahead of Thielen or Beasley.  He's a good #2, but I think highly overrated on these boards.  If you really look around the league and start examining rosters, there's a number of #2's as good or better than Boyd.

Higgins had a really good rookie campaign.  However, he had issues with drops and ball security.  He also didn't draw double coverage like a true #1 should.  AJ was doubled on a very high % of his snaps until this past year.  Tee doesn't demand that type of respect.  That's very important because that's one less guy the opposition can blitz with.  I think Tee can be a great #2.  I don't see him as a legitimate #1.  

[Frank Booth]

(02-22-2021, 11:20 PM)Whatever Wrote: I would put Boyd as a Top 5 slot WR.  I definitely wouldn't put him ahead of Thielen or Beasley.  He's a good #2, but I think highly overrated on these boards.  If you really look around the league and start examining rosters, there's a number of #2's as good or better than Boyd.

Higgins had a really good rookie campaign.  However, he had issues with drops and ball security.  He also didn't draw double coverage like a true #1 should.  AJ was doubled on a very high % of his snaps until this past year.  Tee doesn't demand that type of respect.  That's very important because that's one less guy the opposition can blitz with.  I think Tee can be a great #2.  I don't see him as a legitimate #1.  

Thielen is better than Boyd IMO

Higgins was on pace for 1200+ yards with 6+ touchdowns before Burrow got injured. And that was as a rookie.

All cincy needs is a really good 3. Auden Tate aint the guy. Bengals need to grab a legit 3. 

Somebody like Curtis Samuel

[Nicomo Cosca]

I’ll feel much better about Tee once I see him do it again without AJ drawing some of the better CB’s. There was a least a couple times teams put their #1 guy on AJ (Philly did with Slay, Cleveland did with Ward). I think they thought they were going up against 2018 AJ or something...

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-22-2021, 11:20 PM)Whatever Wrote: I would put Boyd as a Top 5 slot WR.  I definitely wouldn't put him ahead of Thielen or Beasley.  He's a good #2, but I think highly overrated on these boards.  If you really look around the league and start examining rosters, there's a number of #2's as good or better than Boyd.

Higgins had a really good rookie campaign.  However, he had issues with drops and ball security.  He also didn't draw double coverage like a true #1 should.  AJ was doubled on a very high % of his snaps until this past year.  Tee doesn't demand that type of respect.  That's very important because that's one less guy the opposition can blitz with.  I think Tee can be a great #2.  I don't see him as a legitimate #1.  

Hold on a second there, boss. Since 2016 when Boyd came into the league he's finished top 10 in the slot 4 times. Beasley has finished top 10 in the slot 3 times and Larry Fitzgerald has finished top 10 all 5 years. Adam Thielen doesn't really belong in the conversation since he only finished top 10 twice (with a max 57.1% of snaps being his most), along with a horde of other guys. Here are stats for all the guys that finished in the top 10 since 2016. Further down is the yearly production for Fitz, Boyd and Beasley and after that, the combined stats for all 5 years. 

'16 landry,edelman,fitz,shepard,baldwin,snead,beasley,matthews,hilton,boyd
'17 landry,fitz,tate,agholor,amendola,shepard,humphries,thielen,sanu,baldwin
'18 thielen,s-s,westbrook,humphries,beasley,snead,boyd,sanu,rodgers,fitz  *s-s is Smith-Schuster
'19 edelman,kupp,fitz,crowder,boyd,lockett,allen,westbrook,cobb,godwin
'20 s-s,beasley,lamb,boyd,kupp,samuel,lockett,gage,ward,fitz

#of times finishing in the top 10
---------------------------------------
landry-2
edelman-2
fitzgerald-5
shepard-2
baldwin-2
snead-2
beasley-3
boyd-4
tate-2
thielen-2
sanu-2
smith-schuster-2
lockett-2
kupp-2
humphries-2
westbrook-2

2016-2020 individual year rec/yds/tds
----------------------------
fitz------63/566/3, 65/779/3, 49/540/3, 60/668/3, 47/341/1
boyd---49/547/1, 20/205/2, 52/733/3, 57/776/2, 69/739/4
beas----56/640/1, 30/288/3, 54/613/3, 48/525/3, 78/948/3

targets and targ% (percentage of targets to snaps when in the slot)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
fitz----87/21.3%, 93/23.1%, 76/19.2%, 86/17.1%, 62/16.0%
boyd--70/16.4%, 29/15.8%, 75/20.5%, 88/21.4%, 93/21.5%
beas--71/20.6%, 48/14.9%, 70/16.6%, 72/20.3%, 93/22.6%

Combined production for all 5 years. rec/yds/tds/ypc
----------------------------------------------------------------
fitz-----284 rec 2,894 yds 13 tds, ypc 10.2
boyd---247 rec 3,000 yds 12 tds, ypc 12.1
beas---266 rec 3,014 yds 13 tds, ypc 11.3

total targets, receptions and recp%
-----------------------------------
fitz----404 tar, 284 rec, 70.2 catch%
boyd--355 tar, 247 rec, 69.5 catch%
beas--354 tar, 266 rec, 75.1 catch%


Boyd is certainly a consistent, top 3 slot receiver, a low-end #1 receiver and a high-end #2 receiver. 

[Whatever]

(02-22-2021, 11:24 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Thielen is better than Boyd IMO

Higgins was on pace for 1200+ yards with 6+ touchdowns before Burrow got injured. And that was as a rookie.

All cincy needs is a really good 3. Auden Tate aint the guy. Bengals need to grab a legit 3. 

Somebody like Curtis Samuel

Tee had 629 yards after game 10, when Burrow went down. That's 1006 yards over 16 games, not 1200.  On pace for is nice, but John Ross was on pace for 1000+ yards last year if not for the games he missed with injuries.  

[Frank Booth]

(02-23-2021, 06:18 PM)Whatever Wrote: Tee had 629 yards after game 10, when Burrow went down. That's 1006 yards over 16 games, not 1200.  On pace for is nice, but John Ross was on pace for 1000+ yards last year if not for the games he missed with injuries.  

so because his production slowed down due to playing with a bad QB, behind a bad o-line(just like Boyd), that means he isnt a number 1? Ok

He was undoubtedly a #1 with his starting QB. That's all I need to see

Pick up a number 3

[Whatever]

(02-23-2021, 02:11 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Hold on a second there, boss. Since 2016 when Boyd came into the league he's finished top 10 in the slot 4 times. Beasley has finished top 10 in the slot 3 times and Larry Fitzgerald has finished top 10 all 5 years. Adam Thielen doesn't really belong in the conversation since he only finished top 10 twice (with a max 57.1% of snaps being his most), along with a horde of other guys. Here are stats for all the guys that finished in the top 10 since 2016. Further down is the yearly production for Fitz, Boyd and Beasley and after that, the combined stats for all 5 years. 

'16 landry,edelman,fitz,shepard,baldwin,snead,beasley,matthews,hilton,boyd
'17 landry,fitz,tate,agholor,amendola,shepard,humphries,thielen,sanu,baldwin
'18 thielen,s-s,westbrook,humphries,beasley,snead,boyd,sanu,rodgers,fitz  *s-s is Smith-Schuster
'19 edelman,kupp,fitz,crowder,boyd,lockett,allen,westbrook,cobb,godwin
'20 s-s,beasley,lamb,boyd,kupp,samuel,lockett,gage,ward,fitz

#of times finishing in the top 10
---------------------------------------
landry-2
edelman-2
fitzgerald-5
shepard-2
baldwin-2
snead-2
beasley-3
boyd-4
tate-2
thielen-2
sanu-2
smith-schuster-2
lockett-2
kupp-2
humphries-2
westbrook-2

2016-2020 individual year rec/yds/tds
----------------------------
fitz-(5x)-----63/566/3, 65/779/3, 49/540/3, 60/668/3, 47/341/1
boyd-(4x)---49/547/1, 20/205/2, 52/733/3, 57/776/2, 69/739/4
beas-(3x)---56/640/1, 30/288/3, 54/613/3, 48/525/3, 78/948/3

Combined production for all 5 years. rec/yds/tds/ypc
----------------------------------------------------------------
fitz-----284 rec 2,894 yds 13 tds, ypc 10.2
boyd---247 rec 3,000 yds 12 tds, ypc 12.1
beas---266 rec 3,014 yds 13 tds, ypc 11.3


Boyd is certainly a consistent top 3 slot receiver, a low-end #1 receiver and a high-end #2 receiver. 

Good info.  I'd like to see the targets for each, though, because that makes a big difference on production.  One of my main issues with Boyd's overall production is he gets an inordinate number of targets due to lack of other options around him and doesn't produce up to his target volume.  That's particularly true in '18 and '19 and not as much this year.

He's nowhere near a #1.  Good CB's and double teams make him disappear.  Marlon Humphrey is a good, but not too tier CB, and the Ravens just have him follow Boyd wherever he goes and he shuts him down.  That's not a WR1.

[Frank Booth]

(02-23-2021, 06:31 PM)Whatever Wrote: He's nowhere near a #1.  Good CB's and double teams make him disappear.  Marlon Humphrey is a good, but not too tier CB, and the Ravens just have him follow Boyd wherever he goes and he shuts him down.  That's not a WR1.

Marlon Humphrey is a high end slot corner. It's totally reasonable for a guy like Humphrey to shut down Boyd

Joe Haden would regularly shut down AJ Green. Does that mean AJ Green wasnt a wr1?

Boyd is still one of the top slot receivers in the league. 

[*Synric*]

(02-23-2021, 06:31 PM)Whatever Wrote: Good info.  I'd like to see the targets for each, though, because that makes a big difference on production.  One of my main issues with Boyd's overall production is he gets an inordinate number of targets due to lack of other options around him and doesn't produce up to his target volume.  That's particularly true in '18 and '19 and not as much this year.

He's nowhere near a #1.  Good CB's and double teams make him disappear.  Marlon Humphrey is a good, but not too tier CB, and the Ravens just have him follow Boyd wherever he goes and he shuts him down.  That's not a WR1.

Tyler Boyd is a very good slot receiver even though he doesnt offer much in YAC.

My biggest grip is his lack of position versatility. Its keeps the Bengals from moving other guys into the slot. Some of the top slot receivers arent on the slot receiver top lists because they only play 55 to 60% of the snaps there like Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, and Justin Jefferson. 

[Essex Johnson]

(02-22-2021, 01:04 AM)Whatever Wrote: How many of those FA's can take the top off the defense and provide the deep threat we need?  How many are a legit #1 that we're lacking?  

That's the thing, you're not talking about signing a starting caliber WR as opposed to signing a starting caliber T.  You're talking traditional Bengals C tier FA vs an A tier.  600 yards makes you a "good" starter?  You know 74 guys had 600+ receiving yards last year, right?

That is the single worst draft philosophy I've ever heard.  WJIII was a wasted pick?  Jonah Williams was a wasted pick?  If you're saying a draft pick is wasted if it doesn't increase your win total year one, then you're playing checkers in a chess game.  Plus I already showed you how statistically how it's unlikely a T at 5 is a significant upgrade in year one, which is exactly your definition of a "wasted pick.". You draft OL hoping to groom them so they'll be good starters in a year or two.  You don't draft them looking for an immediate upgrade to fix your line.  

A few can take the top off and the game to me has evolved more and more away from #1 WR to 2/3 WRs.. the main point with any draft pick vs. veteran is you know what the veteran has done.. draft picks are still potential so does not matter if WR or tackle. I think the difference to me is how many holes we have.. we have many more on the line so that is going to have to get fixed in FA and draft and more pressing need.. so if adding a veteran WR helps us more than taking a draft pick away from Oline or other more pressing concerns so be it.