Chase v Sewell

[yang]

(04-24-2021, 01:47 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Agreed. Sewell makes your 2nd round pick truly BPA among our positions of need. They can pick between guard, tackle, center, DE, DT, WR or maybe even TE in the 2nd round if Sewell was their first choice. 

If they go Chase at 5, they need to take whoever is left at OT/OG at 38 regardless of who else is available. Not only does that cut down on their flexibility, but it also makes them SUPER predictable and when other teams can predict what you're going to do, they can easily trade in front of you to take away the player you were targeting (See Detroit trading in front of us to snag Ragnow, Pitt trading in front of us to snag Bush and everyone trading in front of us to take OTs in the 2019 second round).

The less predictable and more flexible we are in the second round, the better. 

Sewell also means you have resigned to let Burrow run the offense without a true #1 WR and provide him with the necessary skill talent to succeed. 

[CJD]

(04-24-2021, 08:37 AM)yang Wrote: Sewell also means you have resigned to let Burrow run the offense without a true #1 WR and provide him with the necessary skill talent to succeed. 

Okay. I think Burrow is talented enough to succeed without a true #1. He was doing great up until he was injured. If we draft a deep threat like Dyami Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Tylan Wallace in the 3rd round, Burrow should be better off than his rookie year when all he had was an ineffective AJ Green in that 3rd spot. Not to mention Higgins will have a year under his belt so he should be improved as well. He may even be "true #1 WR" level. 

Plus having a guy like Sewell will improve your running game which will force the defense to play with more defenders in the box which also opens up your passing game as well as your play action game. 

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-24-2021, 08:37 AM)yang Wrote: Sewell also means you have resigned to let Burrow run the offense without a true #1 WR and provide him with the necessary skill talent to succeed. 

I think alot of people are forgetting the talent we have at WR. I know Tyler Boyd might not be your #1 WR if you were gonna pick a dream team but the dude is a chain mover and Tee Higins showed alot of promise in year one. I think this team would be more than fine with a mid round receiver. I was fine with the line last year and trusted the coaches but watching Burrows injury and seeing the promising future being pushed back a year or two if not completey jeopardized sucked. I'd be excited at the possibilities with Chase and Burrow but another injury to Burrow can't happen. Thats why I'd go Sewell. Id rather put my eggs in the protect Burrow basket and get a consistent running game going something we should've focused on last offseason.

[Bengalbug]

(04-24-2021, 10:55 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Okay. I think Burrow is talented enough to succeed without a true #1. He was doing great up until he was injured. If we draft a deep threat like Dyami Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Tylan Wallace in the 3rd round, Burrow should be better off than his rookie year when all he had was an ineffective AJ Green in that 3rd spot. Not to mention Higgins will have a year under his belt so he should be improved as well. He may even be "true #1 WR" level. 

Plus having a guy like Sewell will improve your running game which will force the defense to play with more defenders in the box which also opens up your passing game as well as your play action game. 

I agree with the last paragraph, and it often gets overlooked. Rebuilding the OL will Make your passing and running game
Better, which will also make your defense better. I think if Sewell and Reiff do what we think they can then bengals can go 8-8 with a balanced team.

I think chase gives them some highlight reel plays and big games but ultimately they win 5-6 games and are touted as “up and coming”.

I’ve gone back and forth, but I think I’d rather not see him tear an ACL again. I’ll go OL

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-24-2021, 10:55 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Okay. I think Burrow is talented enough to succeed without a true #1. He was doing great up until he was injured. If we draft a deep threat like Dyami Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Tylan Wallace in the 3rd round, Burrow should be better off than his rookie year when all he had was an ineffective AJ Green in that 3rd spot. Not to mention Higgins will have a year under his belt so he should be improved as well. He may even be "true #1 WR" level. 

Plus having a guy like Sewell will improve your running game which will force the defense to play with more defenders in the box which also opens up your passing game as well as your play action game. 

I'm new to the board but maybe I should keep my post replies to " whatever crazyjdawg said" needless to say I agree completely.

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 01:47 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Agreed. Sewell makes your 2nd round pick truly BPA among our positions of need. They can pick between guard, tackle, center, DE, DT, WR or maybe even TE in the 2nd round if Sewell was their first choice. 

If they go Chase at 5, they need to take whoever is left at OT/OG at 38 regardless of who else is available. Not only does that cut down on their flexibility, but it also makes them SUPER predictable and when other teams can predict what you're going to do, they can easily trade in front of you to take away the player you were targeting (See Detroit trading in front of us to snag Ragnow, Pitt trading in front of us to snag Bush and everyone trading in front of us to take OTs in the 2019 second round).

The less predictable and more flexible we are in the second round, the better. 

Not really. If you go Chase at 5, you have to take an OL in 2.  If you take Sewell, you have to take an X WR in 2.

You can't let your (admittedly washed up) starting X WR walk, not address it in FA, and kick the can down the draft board when your HC's seat is heating up and he runs an offense that puts 3+ WR's on the field over 80% of the time.  You can't set your own HC up to fail, can him, then expect to get anyone with options to come here.

The other issue is the way the board falls.  There are a ton of OL in the 25-50 range and a lot of different ways the Bengals could go to address OL.  They could draft a G.  They could draft a C and move Trey to G.  They could draft a T and kick either Reiff or the rookie to G.  That means the Bengals have flexibility and while a team could probably guess they are going OL, who they are exactly targeting is hard to pin down and the abundance of quality talent in that range makes it unappealing to give up picks to move up.  With X WR, there are only 2 guys(Bateman and Marshall) in the 25 to 50 range.  There is also a huge gap between Marshall in the mid30's to Dyami Brown in the mid 60's.  Obvious need+limited options=recipe to get jumped for the guy you need.

[Hammerstripes]

(04-24-2021, 08:37 AM)yang Wrote: Sewell also means you have resigned to let Burrow run the offense without a true #1 WR and provide him with the necessary skill talent to succeed. 

Correct.  We have never seen a true #1 drafted in the 2 round.

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-24-2021, 02:15 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Correct.  We have never seen a true #1 drafted in the 2 round.

Chad Johnson was drafted in the 2nd. 

[NUGDUKWE]

I actually think our receiving core now is pretty comparable to those early years with Palmer with Chad Johnson and TJ being like Boyd and Higgins. I think any team could always use a player like Chase but I don't think we need that to take our offense over the top.

[CJD]

(04-24-2021, 01:58 PM)Whatever Wrote: Not really. If you go Chase at 5, you have to take an OL in 2.  If you take Sewell, you have to take an X WR in 2.

You can't let your (admittedly washed up) starting X WR walk, not address it in FA, and kick the can down the draft board when your HC's seat is heating up and he runs an offense that puts 3+ WR's on the field over 80% of the time.  You can't set your own HC up to fail, can him, then expect to get anyone with options to come here.

The other issue is the way the board falls.  There are a ton of OL in the 25-50 range and a lot of different ways the Bengals could go to address OL.  They could draft a G.  They could draft a C and move Trey to G.  They could draft a T and kick either Reiff or the rookie to G.  That means the Bengals have flexibility and while a team could probably guess they are going OL, who they are exactly targeting is hard to pin down and the abundance of quality talent in that range makes it unappealing to give up picks to move up.  With X WR, there are only 2 guys(Bateman and Marshall) in the 25 to 50 range.  There is also a huge gap between Marshall in the mid30's to Dyami Brown in the mid 60's.  Obvious need+limited options=recipe to get jumped for the guy you need.

I disagree for one reason: 
If we took Chase, we HAVE to take an Olinemen in the 2nd round

If we took Sewell, we don't HAVE to take an X WR in the 2nd round. 

It would certainly be ideal, as that is our 2nd biggest need, and we should target the position as a priority, but there is no imminent danger if we do not.

And that's how I draw the line between these two positions. OL we capital letters NEED. WR we should draft if we want to increase our offensive efficiency.

If we don't get a good day 1 starting Olineman in this draft, Burrow's reconstructed knee and possibly his career will be in jeopardy. This is not fear mongering or scare tactics, it's just the reality of not putting a starting quality line in front of him. Maybe he doesn't get injured with a terrible line in 2021. We would hope he doesn't. But a worse Oline makes that threat more possible and it would definitely increase the number of hits he takes.

If we don't get a good day 1 starting X receiver in this draft, Burrow will just have to make due with what we have which, for the record, resulted in 282 passing yards per game, 22.4 ppg and a 65.3% completion percentage over the 9.5 games that he played as a rookie. And that includes the bad outings he had against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

And he did this all with a terrible Oline (he was sacked 32 times), a defense that couldn't keep a lead and a virtually non-existent running game.

Unless, of course, you believe that losing AJ Green will severely hamper Burrow, which I find hard to believe since Green performed worse than a replacement player in 2020. 

Adding any weapons to this offense will make it MORE explosive, and that's obviously the goal and would be great, but it won't ruin his progress as a player and it won't jeopardize his future and the franchise's future if we don't add a #1 WR to this offense.

Not fixing the Oline will risk those things.

Add onto that the fact that there are more starting level WRs from outside of the first round than there are offensive tackles and you have a really solid argument for going Sewell, with a bit harder sell for Chase.

As far as teams knowing our needs but not necessarily who we covet, maybe they don't know exactly who we're targetting, but a team can look at who is available at 35 and say "okay, there are 2 more offensive linemen we consider day 1 starters at guard on the board. We know that the Bengals are going to take 1 of them at 38. I want my choice of the two because I don't want to risk the Bengals taking my preferred player, so I will trade to 37 just so I have my choice of the two."

Like I said, it's happened at least 3 times in the past 3 drafts.

Plus, and this is a lesser issue overall, but I REALLY don't trust Duke Tobin's ability to evaluate Oline talent in recent years. He is the one who traded up for Michael Jordan, he drafted Ogbuehi, Fisher, Price and Bodine. The only offensive lineman he's drafted who many would consider a success in the past 10 years was Kevin Zeitler. The jury is still out on Williams, but he looks pretty good, assuming he can stay healthy.
So I'd really prefer we nab the more "secure" prospect in Sewell and then start digging through the WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, as Duke has a much better track record with WRs in that draft range (Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Chris Henry, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Mohamed Sanu).

That's anecdotal evidence and is kind of secondary to my main argument, but I think it's worth noting.

[CJD]

(04-24-2021, 02:15 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Correct.  We have never seen a true #1 drafted in the 2 round.

(04-24-2021, 02:31 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: Chad Johnson was drafted in the 2nd. 

I may be misinterpreting this, but I'm pretty sure Hammerstripes is being sarcastic. 

There are so many examples of "true #1 receivers" drafted in the 2nd round (and later), that I can't fathom him not knowing that. Therefore, it is most likely sarcasm.

If Hammerstripes is being serious, then we can talk about Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Isaac Bruce, Randall Cobb, Deion Branch, Allen Robinson and Golden Tate to start off with.

[*bfine32*]

(04-24-2021, 02:15 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Correct.  We have never seen a true #1 drafted in the 2 round.

(04-24-2021, 02:31 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: Chad Johnson was drafted in the 2nd. 

(04-24-2021, 03:03 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I may be misinterpreting this, but I'm pretty sure Hammerstripes is being sarcastic. 

I am fluent in sarcasm and Hammer was speaking it. 

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 02:54 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I disagree for one reason: 
If we took Chase, we HAVE to take an Olinemen in the 2nd round

If we took Sewell, we don't HAVE to take an X WR in the 2nd round. 

It would certainly be ideal, as that is our 2nd biggest need, and we should target the position as a priority, but there is no imminent danger if we do not.

And that's how I draw the line between these two positions. OL we capital letters NEED. WR we should draft if we want to increase our offensive efficiency.

If we don't get a good day 1 starting Olineman in this draft, Burrow's reconstructed knee and possibly his career will be in jeopardy. This is not fear mongering or scare tactics, it's just the reality of not putting a starting quality line in front of him. Maybe he doesn't get injured with a terrible line in 2021. We would hope he doesn't. But a worse Oline makes that threat more possible and it would definitely increase the number of hits he takes.

If we don't get a good day 1 starting X receiver in this draft, Burrow will just have to make due with what we have which, for the record, resulted in 282 passing yards per game, 22.4 ppg and a 65.3% completion percentage over the 9.5 games that he played as a rookie. And that includes the bad outings he had against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

And he did this all with a terrible Oline (he was sacked 32 times), a defense that couldn't keep a lead and a virtually non-existent running game.

Unless, of course, you believe that losing AJ Green will severely hamper Burrow, which I find hard to believe since Green performed worse than a replacement player in 2020. 

Adding any weapons to this offense will make it MORE explosive, and that's obviously the goal and would be great, but it won't ruin his progress as a player and it won't jeopardize his future and the franchise's future if we don't add a #1 WR to this offense.

Not fixing the Oline will risk those things.

Add onto that the fact that there are more starting level WRs from outside of the first round than there are offensive tackles and you have a really solid argument for going Sewell, with a bit harder sell for Chase.

As far as teams knowing our needs but not necessarily who we covet, maybe they don't know exactly who we're targetting, but a team can look at who is available at 35 and say "okay, there are 2 more offensive linemen we consider day 1 starters at guard on the board. We know that the Bengals are going to take 1 of them at 38. I want my choice of the two because I don't want to risk the Bengals taking my preferred player, so I will trade to 37 just so I have my choice of the two."

Like I said, it's happened at least 3 times in the past 3 drafts.

Plus, and this is a lesser issue overall, but I REALLY don't trust Duke Tobin's ability to evaluate Oline talent in recent years. He is the one who traded up for Michael Jordan, he drafted Ogbuehi, Fisher, Price and Bodine. The only offensive lineman he's drafted who many would consider a success in the past 10 years was Kevin Zeitler. The jury is still out on Williams, but he looks pretty good, assuming he can stay healthy.
So I'd really prefer we nab the more "secure" prospect in Sewell and then start digging through the WRs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, as Duke has a much better track record with WRs in that draft range (Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Chris Henry, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Mohamed Sanu).

That's anecdotal evidence and is kind of secondary to my main argument, but I think it's worth noting.

The Bengals NEED an X WR.  This offense doesn't function without one, as we've seen for the last two years.  Burrow had a lot of passing yards per game because we threw a lot, but he was 24th in passer rating and 25th in yards/attempt.  He had the 5th lowest expected completion % last year and threw the 3rd highest % of passes to targets with a defender within a yard of them.  His pressure/dropback % was 13th highest in the league, not good, but nowhere near as bad some think.  Out the48 sacks the Bengals gave up last year, 23 were credited to the OL. Are we just going to ignore the other 25 or seek to address them?

I respect you, but honestly, this does come off as fear mongering.  Penei Sewell does not guarantee Burrow's health next year.  Carson Palmer and Tom Brady had similar injuries behind good lines.  There's also a bunch of guys that got hit more than Burrow that didn't miss time and a bunch of guys that got hit less that did.  Folks constantly laud Pittsburgh's OL, yet Ben is always banged up.  And what's strange, injuries like Joe, Carson, and Brady had where a guy falls into the side of their plant leg almost always come up the middle, but we're going to draft Sewell and put him at RT and it will somehow prevent it from happening again.

There are 13 OL in the Top 50 prospects of this draft.  If we get jumped for an OL, there are still a bunch of other OL options.  If we get jumped for an X WR, we don't have options except try to trade back or go with another position group.  

 I really don't understand "Sewell should be the pick because I don't trust Duke Tobin" logic.  We have no control over what the Bengals would do.  We are talking about what we would hypothetically do.  Personally, I am a lot more confident that I could find a quality starting G on Day 2 than an X WR.  If Mike Brown isn't confident Tobin can do that in this stacked of a class, then he should fire him.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-24-2021, 08:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: His pressure/dropback % was 13th highest in the league, not good, but nowhere near as bad some think. Out the48 sacks the Bengals gave up last year, 23 were credited to the OL. Are we just going to ignore the other 25 or seek to address them?

I saw this from Matt Minich today, and actually thought it seemed a bit too low...

This morning I watched every sack Joe Burrow took in 2020 and assigned a primary cause

32% were coverage sacks

— Matt Minich (@CoachMinich) April 24, 2021

[BURROWorBUST]

(04-21-2021, 04:20 PM)BobJones4980 Wrote: I mean we could name a few OT bust from Bengals drafts alone but yea let's pretend that we have an amazing track record of first round OTs. 

To be honest, we don't have a great track record of first rounds period. With Jonah & Joe, I think Zac is off to a good start with Duke. Marvin wasn't so lucky. He did have few though. AJ, Eifert, the CBs (minus Dre K). 

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 11:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I saw this from Matt Minich today, and actually thought it seemed a bit too low...

This morning I watched every sack Joe Burrow took in 2020 and assigned a primary cause

32% were coverage sacks

— Matt Minich (@CoachMinich) April 24, 2021

It's still terrible.  Basically 1/3 of our sacks allowed were coverage sacks.  In fairness, Joe should just throw these away instead of taking the hit and losing the yardage, but that's the other side of his competitive nature that he doesn't want to give up on plays.  

But separation is overrated and/or our guys don't have trouble getting separation anyways.

[lone bengal]

No one is changing anyone’s mind lol ,we’re all entrenched either in team Sewell or team Chase. As a team Sewell guy if they take Chase I’ll root for there lineman picks in later rounds to pan out. If it works out they would have killed two birds with one stone which is the best case scenario. If it backfires and the line stinks they deserve to get crucified by fans and the media. Hoping for the best either way.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-25-2021, 11:00 AM)lone bengal Wrote: No one is changing anyone’s mind lol ,we’re all entrenched either in team Sewell or team Chase. As a team Sewell guy if they take Chase I’ll root for there lineman picks in later rounds to pan out. If it works out they would have killed two birds with one stone which is the best case scenario. If it backfires and the line stinks they deserve to get crucified by fans and the media. Hoping for the best either way.

And if we take Sewell I will do the rooting for a later WR to work out

[Murdock2420]

(04-24-2021, 08:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals NEED an X WR.  This offense doesn't function without one, as we've seen for the last two years. 

The last two years have shown the team can not function without a good coaching staff. There has been a substandard line for 4 or 5 years now and there has been a lack of a real X for 2 years (2018 AJ was looking good and went down and started the injury train).

We need more then one draft can fix. It isn't like take OL and we are a playoff team or take Chase and we are a playoff team or even take Pitts. I'd rather draft the OL guy, let him develop under Pollack and look like a Pro Bowl player in 2022 while taking the top WR in the 2022 draft. 

There will be a Chase in 2022 and there will be a Sewell in 2022. Just like there was another Burrow this season.

[Hammerstripes]

(04-24-2021, 03:03 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I may be misinterpreting this, but I'm pretty sure Hammerstripes is being sarcastic. 

There are so many examples of "true #1 receivers" drafted in the 2nd round (and later), that I can't fathom him not knowing that. Therefore, it is most likely sarcasm.

If Hammerstripes is being serious, then we can talk about Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Isaac Bruce, Randall Cobb, Deion Branch, Allen Robinson and Golden Tate to start off with.

LOL.  Yep, there is no font for sarcasm.

Hell, don't forget about Carl Pickens either.

At this point it's a tail chasing argument.  My only point to people is don't use the "we can get a guy in the 2nd" to fill that hole.  I hate seeing it because we just have no idea who will be there.  Many of the guys that I'm reading are saying to expect a big run on O-line in the last part of round 1 and early round 2.  We will definitely see a trade up to get in front of us to take a lineman.  It's just too easy.  

The same goes for taking Sewell, who knows when that run on WR will start.  Either way, there's no guarantee your 2nd round preference for a WR or a OL is going to be there.  That's why I say, you take the best guy at 5 and see how the rest plays out.