Hobson’s annual disappointment cap article

[Joelist]

Jake Liscow and James Rapien interviewed Hobspin today and Liscow laid out the math on cash and cap and Hobspin basically claimed he was wrong. It was comical especially as Hobspin provided no proof on his side and Jake did the math onscreen.

[J24]

They will have more than 20 to spend because it sounds like Hopkins and Wayne's are good as gone. Additionally they could cut Perine and Willson to save 3 Million.
I expect them to sign at least two mid tier external Ol (OT & C) + Spain+ Reiff + Uzomah + Larry or Hill for their significant signings.
They could free up room by trading one of Boyd, Bates, or Mixon (post June first trade). I know its highly unlikely but it makes sense from a financial standpoint.

[Joelist]

Liscow proved they have more in the area of 55-60 million not 20 million.

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 12:41 AM)J24 Wrote: They could  free up room by trading one of Boyd, Bates, or Mixon (post June first trade). I know its highly unlikely but  it makes sense from a financial standpoint.

It only makes sense if you have a young player of equal talent ready to step in and start for less pay.

Otherwise everyone you cut you just create a new hole that has to be filled

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 12:47 AM)Joelist Wrote: Liscow proved they have more in the area of 55-60 million not 20 million.

How?

Sportrac actually posts the individual player contracts.  We don't have anything close to 55-60 million.

How the hell does he claim we have that much space?

I am going to have to see the math on this.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 01:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: How?

Sportrac actually posts the individual player contracts.  We don't have anything close to 55-60 million.

How the hell does he claim we have that much space?

I am going to have to see the math on this.

There is a miscommunication here, they went back and forth regarding cap availability and cash to cap spend.  2 obviously different buckets. Here is the link Fred, you will figure it out. Dont let Hobson get you too down...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hODdx5QpjE8

[J24]

(03-10-2022, 01:17 AM)fredtoast Wrote: It only makes sense if you have a young player of equal talent ready to step in and start for less pay.

Otherwise everyone you cut you just create a new hole that has to be filled

The front office could sign a bridge gap player in free agency and still draft a future player if thats how they  feel  about  a position.

 For Example 
  IF the Bengals were to Trade Boyd for a second RD pick. They could sign an Adam Humphries and draft a Kyle Phillips from UCLA to replace him.

[Nicomo Cosca]

so, you read https://t.co/eyG5ZfI8Lk's yearly free agency preview that mentions a $20 million cap budget. https://t.co/RRlVwY5Dry

we're here to help: pic.twitter.com/WFvsXGO31O

— John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) March 9, 2022

:lol:

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 01:29 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Dont let Hobson get you too down...

I never trust Hobson.  I just look at the actual numbers.

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-09-2022, 10:44 AM)Schmitbuck Wrote: I was thinking the same thing regarding Burrow's contract. These next two years of his rookie deal is the teams chance to go all in on the Super Bowl. I honestly just tune Hobson out. 

If people want to read/watch/listen to a more realistic speculation on what the team might do roster wise the next 2 months, they'd be better off finding someone other than the reporter employed by the Bengals. His job is to "under promise" the fanbase so when the Bengals "over deliver", there is more buzz (or less of a let down). It's also posturing from the team reporter/coaches/owners/etc to help with contract negotiations. 

I was listening to Cincy 360 and they had a capologist as a guest that believes after year 3 (!) the Bengals will offer Burrow the extension.  He said they did the same thing with Palmer.  

Although this move makes sense to lock him in sooner for longer, it does shorten the window of his rookie contract.  

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 02:00 AM)J24 Wrote: The front office could sign a bridge gap player in free agency and still draft a future player if thats how they feel about  a position.

Thank you Captain Obvious.  But even "bridge gap" players cost money and we have a limited number of draft picks. And how many "starter quality" players do you think an NFL team gets from the average draft?

There is a reason it is so rare for NFL starters to get traded.  Quality free agents cost money and the draft is a crapshoot that will usually only provide 2-3 starters (and usually 0 in the rookie season when you are picking at #31.)

[RunKijanaRun]

Why do people read him??

[WVUHomer]

(03-10-2022, 09:05 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I was listening to Cincy 360 and they had a capologist as a guest that believes after year 3 (!) the Bengals will offer Burrow the extension.  He said they did the same thing with Palmer.  

Although this move makes sense to lock him in sooner for longer, it does shorten the window of his rookie contract.  

Not necessarily. They could extend him without the cap hitting until after year 5 ala Maholmes. That said, I would like the hit hit spread a little bit early (like 5M/year ahead of schedule) to not completely handicap in future.

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 09:05 AM)SHRacerX Wrote:  He said they did the same thing with Palmer.  

Bengals were pretty clever with Palmer.  They waited until the end of the regular season to give him his extension (I believe it was in December).  That way they could use all the "emergency" cap space they would usually roll over until the next season to pay Palmer a year early.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 05:10 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:

so, you read https://t.co/eyG5ZfI8Lk's yearly free agency preview that mentions a $20 million cap budget. https://t.co/RRlVwY5Dry

we're here to help: pic.twitter.com/WFvsXGO31O

— John Sheeran (@John__Sheeran) March 9, 2022

Sheeran is great, thanks for posting.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 09:05 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I was listening to Cincy 360 and they had a capologist as a guest that believes after year 3 (!) the Bengals will offer Burrow the extension.  He said they did the same thing with Palmer.  

Although this move makes sense to lock him in sooner for longer, it does shorten the window of his rookie contract.  

I think this has always been the plan.

As WVUHomer suggested above we can do a Mahomes deal:

Instead of signing him to a new deal we simply extend the one he is on.

We can exercise his 5th year giving us 2 more years at his rookie rate before his big number hits.

One thing we most likely do different than KC is a much larger bonus with this extension.  KC gave PM a $500M deal with a $10M signing bonus along with another 250M guaranteed - that they have to have in cash in escrow.

We could offer Burrow $500M with a much larger signing bonus to lessen to the escrow cash requirement.

We could offer Joe 160M in guaranteed money with a 60M signing bonus which would add 12M to the cap hit for the next 5 years (2 of those he is still on his rookie base) and we would need to place only 85M into the escrow.

After this season is actually a good time for us - other than locking in the franchise QB as early as possible, our free agency requirements after this season are not onerous.

We will can exercise Jonah's 5th year to push him back another year, although that could be risky.

We may still have the Bates issue.

Bell and Pratt are the only 2 major free agents (this assumes we actually do things right this offseason)

The other possibility is extending Higgins after this season, he does not have a 5th year option, this would keep him from testing the waters and receiving WR1 pay until we extend Chase.

It is crucial we have a solid offseason right now in free agency and some hits in the draft.



 

[*ochocincos*]

(03-10-2022, 01:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: How?

Sportrac actually posts the individual player contracts.  We don't have anything close to 55-60 million.

How the hell does he claim we have that much space?

I am going to have to see the math on this.

I am assuming that person is cutting off those back-end contracts of players very unlikely to make the roster once more talent is added.
Plus probably factoring in a Waynes release.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-10-2022, 10:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Bengals were pretty clever with Palmer.  They waited until the end of the regular season to give him his extension (I believe it was in December).  That way they could use all the "emergency" cap space they would usually roll over until the next season to pay Palmer a year early.

If that's potentially the same scenario they're looking to do with Burrow, that might be why Hobson is expecting a good chunk of cap reserved for this year, which is Burrow's 3rd year. Hold onto it through the season and give him the extension right when the season ends but before the new league year starts.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-10-2022, 10:51 AM)casear2727 Wrote: I think this has always been the plan.

As WVUHomer suggested above we can do a Mahomes deal:

Instead of signing him to a new deal we simply extend the one he is on.

We can exercise his 5th year giving us 2 more years at his rookie rate before his big number hits.

One thing we most likely do different than KC is a much larger bonus with this extension.  KC gave PM a $500M deal with a $10M signing bonus along with another 250M guaranteed - that they have to have in cash in escrow.

We could offer Burrow $500M with a much larger signing bonus to lessen to the escrow cash requirement.

We could offer Joe 160M in guaranteed money with a 60M signing bonus which would add 12M to the cap hit for the next 5 years (2 of those he is still on his rookie base) and we would need to place only 85M into the escrow.

After this season is actually a good time for us - other than locking in the franchise QB as early as possible, our free agency requirements after this season are not onerous.

We will can exercise Jonah's 5th year to push him back another year, although that could be risky.

We may still have the Bates issue.

Bell and Pratt are the only 2 major free agents (this assumes we actually do things right this offseason)

The other possibility is extending Higgins after this season, he does not have a 5th year option, this would keep him from testing the waters and receiving WR1 pay until we extend Chase.

It is crucial we have a solid offseason right now in free agency and some hits in the draft.



 

At some point, the Bengals are going to have to try drafting defense to replace some of the high-priced vet starters.
They won't be able to have so many expensive vet contracts on defense when they pay Burrow.

[Bengalholic]

Just listened to Hobs on Locked On Bengals. The guy is clueless. Jake Liscow broke down the available cash the Bengals should have to spend after draft picks, practice squad, tenders, etc...and Hobson took that number and still tried to subtract all the things Jake had already accounted for. It was embarrassing to listen to.