Confession of a Dalton Defender

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 11:43 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Well you would expect someone that was forced to start from year one to drastically increase by year 4 wouldn't you?

For instance Tannehill was thrown in the fire year and had a 76.1 passer rating (I know biased against Andy stat) his rookie year, He just had a 92.8 in year 3.

BTW, you don't form chemistry by sitting on the bench and taking snaps with the 2nd team in practice.

I think I've almost got it figured out, so I best stop with the back and forth before I lose some knowledge.

Well since you like using rating Dalton did have a 80 his first year, and 88 his 3rd year. Yeah his 4th year it went down, but you're just fooling yourself if you don't realize that it's obviously going to go down when all of his offensive weapons get hurt.

BTW, you really don't think that the 2nd string QB won't be throwing to the starting receivers every now and then? They do form a chemistry while their the backup still.

[Brownshoe]

(05-27-2015, 11:49 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Would you rather have a season in which the QB threw for 35 TDs and the team did not win a playoff game or the QB threw for 20 TDs and the team won 1 or more playoff games?

I asked the question the way i did because you were pointing out a statistic that showed how many TDs Dalton had thrown compared to others. To me, number of TDs doesn't mean anything when the end result is zero playoff wins.

We'd all love a perfect scenario where we have 35TDs and multiple playoff wins, but what we've seen so far is 30+TDs and zero playoff wins and 20TDs with zero playoff wins.

But i'm pretty sure you answered the question with "better team", so there's no real need to elaborate any more.

obviously anyone would want their team to win in the playoffs, but what does that have to do with the price of tea in China? It's an apples to oranges thing. One is a QB stat, and the other is a team stat. It's a whole team effort to win in the playoffs.

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-27-2015, 10:41 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Yes it hurts teams that throw short to intermediate passes, because it lowers their YPA. Don't you understand how it works? It favors QBs that pass less, but throw intermediate to long passes.

Actually i understand it very well since i've worked with my nephew to create 2 apps that use the standard QB rating and an update multiplier to more accurately reflect today's "average" QB. Well enough that i can calculate a QB rating with a pencil and paper. I've done the math so many times to see where QBs rank with updated multipliers that i see the numbers dancing in my dreams...

It doesn't hurt anyone any more or less since averages are used. The yards / attempts have a multiplier of 1/4 of one percent (EDIT: incorrect. It's 1/4 of 1-- X .25). Examples: Rodgers- 4,381/520(8.43ypa) x .25= 2.11 , Rivers- 4,286/570(7.52) x .25= 1.88 , Wilson- 3,475/452(7.69) x .25= 1.92 , G.Smith- 2,525/367(6.88) x .25= 1.72 , Dalton- 3,398/481(7.06) x .25= 1.77 , Locker- 993/146(6.80) x .25= 1.70

Rodgers-- 2.11 -- att. 520 -- yds. 4,381
Rivers ---- 1.88 -- att. 570 -- yds. 4,286
Wilson --- 1.92 -- att. 452 -- yds. 3,475
G.Smith---1.72 -- att. 367 -- yds. 2,525
Dalton --- 1.77 -- att. 481 -- yds. 3,398
Locker --- 1.70 -- att. 146 -- yds. 993

The variable falls between 0 and 2.375 with a 1.0 being average. That one variable is combined with 3 others then it's divided by 6 and multiplied by 100. No one has an advantage over anyone else, whether you throw more or less, it's all averages, divided and multiplied.

The only thing wrong with using the standard QB rating is that it's based on numbers from the '70s where a 66.7 rating was considered "average", otherwise known as the 16th best of 32 qualifying participants. The last few years, the actual "average" QB based on today's numbers is around 86. Last year it was closer to 90.

If you argue with math, you will lose.

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 12:01 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: obviously anyone would want their team to win in the playoffs, but what does that have to do with the price of tea in China? It's an apples to oranges thing. One is a QB stat, and the other is a team stat. It's a whole team effort to win in the playoffs.

As i said. You were pointing out Dalton's TDs in comparison. What good are TDs if they don't lead to playoff wins or a 90+ rating, to put him in/near the top 10?

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 12:07 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Actually i understand it very well since i've worked with my nephew to create 2 apps that use the standard QB rating and an update multiplier to more accurately reflect today's "average" QB. Well enough that i can calculate a QB rating with a pencil and paper. I've done the math so many times to see where QBs rank with updated multipliers that i see the numbers dancing in my dreams...

It doesn't hurt anyone any more or less since averages are used. The yards / attempts have a multiplier of 1/4 of one percent. The variable falls between 0 and 2.375 with a 1 being average. That one variable is combined with 3 others then it's divided by 6 and multiplied by 100. No one has an advantage over anyone else, whether you throw more or less, it's all averages, divided and multiplied.

The only thing wrong with using the standard QB rating is that it's based on numbers from the '70s where a 66.7 rating was considered "average", otherwise known as the 16th best of 32 qualifying participants. The last few years, the actual "average" QB based on today's numbers is around 86. Last year it was closer to 90.

If you argue with math, you will lose.

So what QB do you think would have a higher passer rating?

QB 1 = 22/35 (62.8%) 330 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs
QB 2 = 11/18 (61.1%) 250 yards 1 TD 0 INTS


Well if you said QB1 you would be wrong. QB1 had 112.7 and QB2 had 123.6 that's over 10 rating for a lot worse performance.

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 12:11 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: As i said. You were pointing out Dalton's TDs in comparison. What good are TDs if they don't lead to playoff wins or a 90+ rating, to put him in/near the top 10?

Well considering TDs are a QB stat and a playoff win is a team stat you can't really compare the two. What good is the defense ranked 3rd when they can't stop the run, or get to the QB (only getting 4 sacks total in the last 4 playoff games)? What good is a top rated offensive line if they allow 12 sacks in the last 4 playoff games? So what's your point?

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 03:04 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: So what QB do you think would have a higher passer rating?

QB 1 = 22/35 (62.8%) 330 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs
QB 2 = 11/18 (61.1%) 250 yards 1 TD 0 INTS


Well if you said QB1 you would be wrong. QB1 had 112.7 and QB2 had 123.6 that's over 10 rating for a lot worse performance.

The YPA difference is 9.4 to 13.9. A 4.5 yard diff in a single game is huge. Check the ypa difference between QBs on a seasonal basis. I edited my previous post with examples.

QB1- 330/35 (9.4) x .25= 2.35
QB2- 250/18 (13.9) x .25= 3.48

That's a difference of 1.1 pts when the difference in seasonal averages is in hundredths of points. Using one game does not support your argument as no QB is going to average 13 yards per pass for a season with zero interceptions.

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 03:11 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Well considering TDs are a QB stat and a playoff win is a team stat you can't really compare the two. What good is the defense ranked 3rd when they can't stop the run, or get to the QB (only getting 4 sacks total in the last 4 playoff games)? What good is a top rated offensive line if they allow 12 sacks in the last 4 playoff games? So what's your point?

They're no good at all. Same as Touchdowns in a season if the QB only throws a total of 1 TD in 4 playoff games.

[Bhones10]

(05-28-2015, 03:51 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: They're no good at all. Same as Touchdowns in a season if the QB only throws a total of 1 TD in 4 playoff games.

I was at the colts playoff game, what i do not understand is the people that blame Dalton for that loss for some reason think a quarterback with only one starting receiver maybe your 4th best and  neither of your starting tight ends could do better. I believe if Green and Gresham played we would have won that game.   The colts put as many as 8 in the box because we had no one that could get behind single coverage. So i give Dalton a pass. If you remember the first game last season against the Ravens how good they looked with all of their receivers except Jones. The defense was also banged up if you remember the year before we killed the Colts. This is the year to see what kind of quarterback Dalton is, we had a lot of injuries to key positions you take all of any quarterbacks receivers away in a road playoff game all but maybe the two best quarterbacks future hall of famers could win in that situation. They may not even win under these circumstances.

[spazz70]

(05-27-2015, 01:39 PM)bfine32 Wrote: This is the projected list of starting AFC QBs in the NFL for 2015:

Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Marcus Mariota
Geno Smith
Peyton Manning
Derik Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Bobby Hoyer
Andy Dalton

This is the list of those with at least 4 years as a starter (min 10 games) that did not achieve a passer rating of 90 or higher in at least 1 of those 1st 4 years:

Andy Dalton

I see the list...I see a list that has only 6 QBs that made the playoffs last year... I see a list that has 3 QBs that have made the playoffs the last 4 years....I see a list that has that has 2 QBs that have made the playoffs the 1st four years in the league....I see a list that includes a lot of QBs that have not or did not go to the playoffs..... You cannot win in the playoffs if you do not make the playoffs.... As you all know, I am not a big Dalton supporter but he is who he is...We have gone to the playoffs with him at the helm....There are absolutely no better options at this time available..... Just learn to deal with it...It makes life much easier

[*PhilHos*]

(05-27-2015, 11:43 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Well you would expect someone that was forced to start from year one to drastically increase by year 4 wouldn't you?

Peyton Manning's first 4 years: 72, 90, 94, 83. 

He started in year one. He increased until his 4th season which saw a bigger drop from him than Dalton had.  Do you think the  Colts fans wanted him replaced?

[*Nately120*]

(05-27-2015, 01:39 PM)bfine32 Wrote: This is the projected list of starting AFC QBs in the NFL for 2015:


Phillip Rivers
Ryan Tannehill
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
Matt Cassel
Tom Brady
Carson Palmer
Peyton Manning
Derik Carr
Alex Smith
Ben Rothlisberger
Joe Flacco
Josh McCown
Blake Bortles
Bobby Hoyer
Andy Dalton

This list intrigues me...mostly because there are 2 Tom Brady's in the NFL (I guess it is a relatively common name) and it looks like the Titans traded Mariotta to the Cardinals for Carson Palmer.  Interesting...

[djs7685]

(05-28-2015, 10:16 AM)Nately120 Wrote: This list intrigues me...mostly because there are 2 Tom Brady's in the NFL (I guess it is a relatively common name) and it looks like the Titans traded Mariotta to the Cardinals for Carson Palmer.  Interesting...

Don't forget about the infamous Bobby Hoyer!

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 07:24 AM)Bhones10 Wrote: I was at the colts playoff game, what i do not understand is the people that blame Dalton for that loss for some reason think a quarterback with only one starting receiver maybe your 4th best and  neither of your starting tight ends could do better. I believe if Green and Gresham played we would have won that game.   The colts put as many as 8 in the box because we had no one that could get behind single coverage. So i give Dalton a pass. If you remember the first game last season against the Ravens how good they looked with all of their receivers except Jones. The defense was also banged up if you remember the year before we killed the Colts. This is the year to see what kind of quarterback Dalton is, we had a lot of injuries to key positions you take all of any quarterbacks receivers away in a road playoff game all but maybe the two best quarterbacks future hall of famers could win in that situation. They may not even win under these circumstances.

I don't blame Dalton solely for any of the losses. Neither the entire team nor the coaching staff has shown up. I'm just saying i don't believe the QB is going to make some drastic improvement and just start playing well in prime-time and playoff games. 

[*Nately120*]

(05-28-2015, 10:24 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Don't forget about the infamous Bobby Hoyer!

I'll never forget when Bobby Hoyer got the starting gig for the Clevetown Bruins and led them to a 2-0 record before tragically tearing his QCL against the Baffalo Ballsacks.

[*bfine32*]

(05-28-2015, 10:16 AM)Nately120 Wrote: This list intrigues me...mostly because there are 2 Tom Brady's in the NFL (I guess it is a relatively common name) and it looks like the Titans traded Mariotta to the Cardinals for Carson Palmer.  Interesting...

The fact that the names were corrected about 24 hours ago and you still copied the incorrect list intrigues me. I changed the names in the 1st list to include Geno Smith and Marcus Mariotta. Guess how many names I had to add to the second list.

Hell the guy 2 posts above you quoted the corrected list. Where you really that desparate that you changed the list back to try to make a point?

[*bfine32*]

(05-28-2015, 09:41 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Peyton Manning's first 4 years: 72, 90, 94, 83. 

He started in year one. He increased until his 4th season which saw a bigger drop from him than Dalton had.  Do you think the  Colts fans wanted him replaced?

2 things:

1st: Although his rating dipped in year 4 it is still 11 points higher than it was as a rookie. Andy's is around 5.

2nd: Peyton had already shown the potential to be elite. he was the 4th rated QB in year 2 and 6th rated in year 3.   Hell, the year he "dropped" he was tied for 8th. In that same 3 year span of his career Andy has been rated; 13th, 15th, and 25th.

You're a bright guy. Which one of those 2 shows signs of a more promising career?

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 03:49 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The YPA difference is 9.4 to 13.9. A 4.5 yard diff in a single game is huge. Check the ypa difference between QBs on a seasonal basis. I edited my previous post with examples.

QB1- 330/35 (9.4) x .25= 2.35
QB2- 250/18 (13.9) x .25= 3.48

That's a difference of 1.1 pts when the difference in seasonal averages is in hundredths of points. Using one game does not support your argument as no QB is going to average 13 yards per pass for a season with zero interceptions.

Thanks for agreeing with me that WCO is effected negatively with passer rating. Unless you think a lot of short to intermediate throws will lead to big YPA. In 2013 there were only 3 QBs that had more attempts than Dalton and still had a higher rating, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Matt Ryan (who only had .8 passer rating higher than him). That year he averaged ~37 attempts per game, and other QBs like Newton (29), Kaepernick (26), and Wilson (25).

[*bfine32*]

(05-28-2015, 11:35 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Thanks for agreeing with me that WCO is effected negatively with passer rating. Unless you think a lot of short to intermediate throws will lead to big YPA. In 2013 there were only 3 QBs that had more attempts than Dalton and still had a higher rating, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Matt Ryan (who only had .8 passer rating higher than him).

And of those that had more attempts that Andy only 2 had a higher YPA. So your YPA hurting Andy kinda seems silly.

[*Nately120*]

(05-28-2015, 11:17 AM)bfine32 Wrote: The fact that the names were corrected about 24 hours ago and you still copied the incorrect list intrigues me. I changed the names in the 1st list to include Geno Smith and Marcus Mariotta. Guess how many names I had to add to the second list.

Hell the guy 2 posts above you quoted the corrected list. Where you really that desparate that you changed the list back to try to make a point?

What point did I make?  I'm pretty sure I was joking but I could throw a pie or rip my trousers or something next time so my intent is a bit more clear, if you like.