Final 2023 Offensive Line Rankings

[KillerGoose]

I've posted stuff like this in here before, but I enjoy doing football analytics as a hobby, for those who aren't familiar. I've posted threads during the season which included a prediction of 11 wins as of week four, top WR in franchise history, franchise QB analysis, and more. One of the things that I have enjoyed the most is trying to find a formula that works for offensive line play. I know that PFF grades exist, but I am not a big fan of them or the process that they do. So, I started trying to develop something that allowed us to use numbers to rank the lines. Below is the result for the 2023 season...

           

The formatting is a bit wonky, sorry for that. When I write the code to create the final table, it spits it out as a long .html page. It is supposed to be able to be inserted into a website and you can interact with it, using a search bar and all. However, I can't embed that table onto the site, so screenshots will have to do. 

Methodology - There are five components to this formula - pressure percentage, sack percentage, yards before contact, penalty percentage, and time to throw. Time to throw is used as a small modifier to the overall passing score. The logic for including it was based on the idea of a team having a middle of the road pressure percentage but their QB had a TTT of nearly three seconds - one of the longest in the entire league. How does that factor in? Having an average pressure percentage allowed with a QB who is slow in releasing the ball is pretty good, when you consider the context. So, that is where it came in. Anyways, I take the league average and standard deviation of these metrics and calculate a z-score to figure out how they compare to the mean. Finally, I aggregate these numbers with some weights attached to them and normalize them to a scale of 100 for aesthetics. 

Results - Overall, I am happy with the results. There are some questionable rankings, and one that I keep going back to is the Jaguars. As a sanity check, I referenced a few end-of-season OL rankings. One of them was this PFF ranking. I'll touch on a few of the major discrepancies below...

• JAX - Perhaps there is context missing in my formula. That wouldn't surprise me at all, and I like to tinker with it, but based on what we have, the Jaguars played well this season. They allowed the 8th best pressure percentage, 12th best sack percentage, very minimal penalties and they blocked for the second best yards before contact. Now, Lawrence had a very fast TTT, only slightly slower than Joe Burrow, so that brings down their passing grade a bit. This makes me wonder if I am weighting rushing too heavily. Lowering the rushing weight takes them down to 6th and lowering it even more takes them to 8th. That may be more accurate, but I think the relative area of where they are ranked feels solid.
• CAROLINA - PFF has them ranked 15th and they are 32nd in mine. The reason why is because they allowed the highest pressure percentage in the league (36%), highest sack percentage in the league (6.6%), racked up a lot of penalties, and were mediocre in yards before contact. Carolina QBs held the ball slightly longer than league average, but nothing major. (2.76 vs. 2.77). 
• CHICAGO - Chicago is ranked 14th in the PFF rankings but 30th in mine. They ranked 26th in pressure percentage allowed, were 31st in sack percentage allowed, and were the worst team in the league in yards before contact.
  

I think that'll do, as far as explanations go. If anyone else has any specific questions, feel free to ask. 

Cincinnati - These results are really disappointing, as far as Cincinnati goes. I did this ranking last year and Cincinnati came out as the worst ranked offensive line in the league. Unsurprisingly, that line was also one of the worst ranked lines in franchise history. You can see that analysis here. The line this year didn't really get much better, relatively speaking. They improved six spots but still struggled to keep Joe clean, even with a lightning fast release. Now, it is fair to give them credit where it is due. They did hit stride after week eight until week 17, logging a pressure percentage allowed of 21.1% and a sack percentage of 3.1%. If that would have been their actual season results, they would have ranked 6th in pressure percentage and 13th-ish in sack percentage. However, once the injuries started coming in, things deteriorated very quickly. From week 17 to the AFCCG, the Bengals surrendered a sack percentage of 4.6% (26th) and a pressure percentage of 30.7% (28th). Of course, the running game also never got going, either.

So, it really looks like the upgrades to the offensive line were working, but the injuries derailed all of that progress at the worst time in the season. I don't want to make this post any more long winded than it is, so I will end it here but if anyone has any questions, feel free to ask. 

[Soonerpeace]

Great work. Where to go from here? Jonah isn’t getting it done and Collins won’t be ready for the season and not sold with his back he can ever be back to his form. I’d definitely draft an OT @ 28.

[BleedNOrange]

Great stuff here. To no one's surprise, we had a decent starting Oline but terrible depth. This what you get with poor OL drafting over the years.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

[SunsetBengal]

(02-15-2023, 12:06 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Great work. Where to go from here? Jonah isn’t getting it done and Collins won’t be ready for the season and not sold with his back he can ever be back to his form. I’d definitely draft an OT @ 28.

I don't believe that there is a simple, short answer solution to this problem.  Getting better up front is going to require an array of things to happen.  From the offensive philosophy believing in the importance of establishing the running game, to better identification of prospects with specific skill traits to fit how the Bengals want to run and pass block, to intuitive coaching to develop the best from the OL prospects and expel counterproductive traits, to further developing the unit mentality.  It all works together in building a formidable front line.  The most important thing is to develop the mindset of "This is OUR line of scrimmage, WE dictate what goes on here".

[Frank Booth]

Steelers o-line was bad

[*Synric*]

Like to see some more range from the Offensive Line. They struggled to do anything outside of simple a and b gap power runs. Really after they scrapped the wide zone early the run plays were more because they were forced into it by the box count. Call a quick run just to get to the next pass play.

[Goalpost]

The pressure Joe's seen is frustrating. Last two post seasons...29 sacks. In addition to the two regular seasons of a total of 92 sacks. It's miracle that Joe's been durable thru this.

[Soonerpeace]

(02-15-2023, 12:11 PM)BleedNOrange Wrote: Great stuff here. To no one's surprise, we had a decent starting Oline but terrible depth. This what you get with poor OL drafting over the years.

I don’t think even Philly or KC minus 3 OL starters make the AFC or NFC Championship game. Depth would have caught up with them as well. As the study noted before the injuries we were doing much better. We did win 10 in a row. Getting exposed by the SB champs with 3 starters out isn’t hard to digest.

That being said Jonah has struggled and he’s the left tackle and Collins had issues even before his ACL.

[3wt]

(02-15-2023, 12:44 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I don’t think even Philly or KC minus 3 OL starters make the AFC or NFC Championship game. Depth would have caught up with them as well. As the study noted before the injuries we were doing much better. We did win 10 in a row. Getting exposed by the SB champs with 3 starters out isn’t hard to digest.

That being said Jonah has struggled and he’s the left tackle and Collins had issues even before his ACL.

I think both Williams and Collins played hurt for much of the season.  Once Jonah recovered from the original knee cap injury he wasn't too bad.  Collins was hurt throughout with multiple injuries.  And I don't know if he can recover from the back situation, which probably impacts his terrible lateral movement and recoverability.   

If they are both healthy we should rise to the middle of the pack.  Then depth and Volson's floor become the issue.   I don't see how we can avoid at least one top two draft pick - (really round 1) and another free agent.  They are going to have to divest of either Mixon, Bates or both to accommodate a quality right tackle.  I'd certainly back the first option, keep Perine and draft a 4th round back. 

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(02-15-2023, 12:37 PM)Goalpost Wrote: The pressure Joe's seen is frustrating. Last two post seasons...29 sacks. In addition to the two regular seasons of a total of 92 sacks. It's miracle that Joe's been durable thru this.

It’s not just pass protection; the rush attack isn’t close to what it needs to be either.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

We need to add an OT in FA and an OT somewhat early in the Draft. I like our interior OL and the depth there for once.

La'el won't be ready after an ACL tear, Jonah has had his problems but we picked up his option so we should have some
competition at LT no matter how we go about it, unless we add a top LT in FA like I would want the most.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-15-2023, 02:22 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: It’s not just pass protection; the rush attack isn’t close to what it needs to be either.

Which is crazy because what it needs to be isn't even high expectations for a top running game. They just need an efficient mediocre running game to keep defenses honest, and they can't even manage that. 

The Chiefs were 20th in rushing yards per game and 8th in rushing yards per carry. You could even downgrade that 8th to 12th-15th on yards per carry and I would still be content with that running game for the Bengals. Instead they were 29th and 29th.

[Joelist]

Part of the run game problem is indecisiveness on the part of the team both in committing to run and also what scheme to use. This was the latest of several seasons where we had to change the scheme during the season. Had we just decided on power gap running in preseason and stuck to it the numbers would look better because our linemen are pretty uniformly built for that type of attack.

Another part is sad to say the play of the backs. Perine was effective when he was used but Mixon basically had two good outings and a bunch of outings where he displayed poor vision and excessive dancing. If they REALLY want to make a good, consistent run game they need to say goodbye to Mixon and reload at RB.

Also, the injury problems at both tackle spots held us back all season. It's true that for the period when they were all somewhat healthy and had enough reps together to sync the pass protection in particular was actually upper tier. Then of course injuries intervened. On the good side we found to our surprise Carman may be a keeper - on the bad side it's pretty clear Adeniji is not. I tend to agree we need to draft a nice, big RT and probably also sign an OT in Free Agency.

[Soonerpeace]

The real problem is that some are better in zone blocking and others in a gap scheme. Pollack switched to a gap scheme and it improved mid season. Others have touched on this. I think against Carolina. Regardless Cappa, Karras, and Collins are better in a gap scheme. Should Pollack had known this before the season? Seems to me Pollack or somebody has missed the mark on lots of things in the OL too often. Hopefully they draft first a tackle.

[*Synric*]

(02-15-2023, 03:40 PM)Joelist Wrote: Part of the run game problem is indecisiveness on the part of the team both in committing to run and also what scheme to use. This was the latest of several seasons where we had to change the scheme during the season. Had we just decided on power gap running in preseason and stuck to it the numbers would look better because our linemen are pretty uniformly built for that type of attack.

Really they didnt run a gap scheme any better than a zone. 

A major part of a gap scheme is climbing to the second level and pulling. The Bengals offensive line struggled to show range in zone or gap.

[Anarumo_Savant]

The line hasn't been the same since 2015

[Soonerpeace]

(02-15-2023, 03:40 PM)Joelist Wrote: Part of the run game problem is indecisiveness on the part of the team both in committing to run and also what scheme to use. This was the latest of several seasons where we had to change the scheme during the season. Had we just decided on power gap running in preseason and stuck to it the numbers would look better because our linemen are pretty uniformly built for that type of attack.

Another part is sad to say the play of the backs. Perine was effective when he was used but Mixon basically had two good outings and a bunch of outings where he displayed poor vision and excessive dancing. If they REALLY want to make a good, consistent run game they need to say goodbye to Mixon and reload at RB.

Also, the injury problems at both tackle spots held us back all season. It's true that for the period when they were all somewhat healthy and had enough reps together to sync the pass protection in particular was actually upper tier. Then of course injuries intervened. On the good side we found to our surprise Carman may be a keeper - on the bad side it's pretty clear Adeniji is not. I tend to agree we need to draft a nice, big RT and probably also sign an OT in Free Agency.

Good post. Jackson Carman if he were a cat he’d be almost out of lives. Maybe he needs a real shot at left tackle. Move Jonathan Williams to RT and let him and Collins compete as well as draft a. Tackle in the first round.

[Soonerpeace]

(02-15-2023, 03:40 PM)Joelist Wrote: Part of the run game problem is indecisiveness on the part of the team both in committing to run and also what scheme to use. This was the latest of several seasons where we had to change the scheme during the season. Had we just decided on power gap running in preseason and stuck to it the numbers would look better because our linemen are pretty uniformly built for that type of attack.

Another part is sad to say the play of the backs. Perine was effective when he was used but Mixon basically had two good outings and a bunch of outings where he displayed poor vision and excessive dancing. If they REALLY want to make a good, consistent run game they need to say goodbye to Mixon and reload at RB.

Also, the injury problems at both tackle spots held us back all season. It's true that for the period when they were all somewhat healthy and had enough reps together to sync the pass protection in particular was actually upper tier. Then of course injuries intervened. On the good side we found to our surprise Carman may be a keeper - on the bad side it's pretty clear Adeniji is not. I tend to agree we need to draft a nice, big RT and probably also sign an OT in Free Agency.

Good post

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 05:04 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Good post. Jackson Carman if he were a cat he’d be almost out of lives. Maybe he needs a real shot at left tackle. Move Jonathan Williams to RT and let him and Collins compete as well as draft a. Tackle in the first round.

Keep Jonah and Carmen at LT pushing each other.
Draft Darnell Wright to man the RT spot for the next decade.
Move LC to left guard, he's played it before and all of his issues in pass blocking was his inability to get wide on speed rushers and ending up on the ground.  LC in a phone booth could be tough to handle.

LC, Karras, and Cappa could make for a solid IOL....