ACA/Obamacare Repeal/Replace Drama

[NATI BENGALS]

Usually when they try to sway opinion with a fake patriotic name it is a bad deal for the people.

Eeew the American Health Care Act.. Probably something totally awesome for the people like the Patriot Act.

Come on fellow Americans. How could you not get on board with something this American and this awesome? Hell you dont even have to read past the title to know this is a way better option than Obammacare

[GMDino]

#TrumpCare is like a yacht. Every American has access to it, they just have to find the money.

— Richard Hine (@richardhine) March 7, 2017

[Belsnickel]

I have to say that I am a little tired of the hypocrisy from folks. The left tried to push the ACA through at the speed of light while Paul Ryan was demanding a CBO scoring before the vote. Now it is a reversal.

[GMDino]

(03-08-2017, 09:56 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: I have to say that I am a little tired of the hypocrisy from folks. The left tried to push the ACA through at the speed of light while Paul Ryan was demanding a CBO scoring before the vote. Now it is a reversal.

I know I sound hideously partisan when I say it, but...the right is about "keeping promises".  So they HAVE to repeal the ACA like they've promised for 6 years.  They just didn't tell the voters they were repealing it to help their donors and big business and that the majority of the voters will get screwed.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

I don't have a problem with them keeping their promise so long as the replacement is an upgrade for the target population.

[Belsnickel]

(03-08-2017, 11:21 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I don't have a problem with them keeping their promise so long as the replacement is an upgrade for the target population.

Unfortunately, it won't be from what I understand. The biggest crux of the bill is that it switches the subsidy to a tax credit. Even if the amount was the same, dollar for dollar (which I don't think it will be) this still makes health insurance unaffordable for lower income folks as they won't have the cash in hand to pay the premiums and then get tax credits for it.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-08-2017, 11:27 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Unfortunately, it won't be from what I understand. The biggest crux of the bill is that it switches the subsidy to a tax credit. Even if the amount was the same, dollar for dollar (which I don't think it will be) this still makes health insurance unaffordable for lower income folks as they won't have the cash in hand to pay the premiums and then get tax credits for it.

If it's going to work like the EIC you're correct, in my opinion. 

[Belsnickel]

CBO markup for the GOP's plan: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52486

tl;dr: Savings of $337 billion over ten years, uninsured number increases by 24 million in ten years.

[BmorePat87]

(03-13-2017, 05:29 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: CBO markup for the GOP's plan: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52486

tl;dr: Savings of $337 billion over ten years, uninsured number increases by 24 million in ten years.

14m by 2018 and then another 10 million over the next 8 years. 

2018 will be an interesting fight. We need to spend an extra $54b a year on defense but we need to cut insurance for tens of millions to cover half that cost. 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-13-2017, 05:29 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: CBO markup for the GOP's plan: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52486

tl;dr: Savings of $337 billion over ten years, uninsured number increases by 24 million in ten years.

Aren't there like 20 million Americans insured through Obamacare now?

[Belsnickel]

(03-13-2017, 06:41 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Aren't there like 20 million Americans insured through Obamacare now?

That's the high estimate. So it is likely that in ten years there will be fewer people with insurance than before the ACA if it passes as is.

[BmorePat87]

(03-13-2017, 06:41 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Aren't there like 20 million Americans insured through Obamacare now?

(03-13-2017, 06:47 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: That's the high estimate. So it is likely that in ten years there will be fewer people with insurance than before the ACA if it passes as is.

We're like net 16m. 20m new, 4m lost insurance. 

So by 2018 we're estimating +2m up from before ACA passed and by 2026 we'll be -8m from before the ACA passed.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

So all this damn drama to maintain the status quo and the poor are still in the same situation.

[BmorePat87]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-uninsured-white-house-236019

The Trump Administration has said that the CBO's finding are "just not believable".

meanwhile a leaked document detailing a White House analysis of the bill present a bleaker forecast of about 2m more uninsured than the CBO report.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

The whole point of the ACA was to bring about Single Payer and we are well on the way. No amount of Repeal and Replace is stopping Single Payer so we may as well get it over with.

[Yojimbo]

(03-13-2017, 11:38 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: The whole point of the ACA was to bring about Single Payer and we are well on the way. No amount of Repeal and Replace is stopping Single Payer so we may as well get it over with.

I really think states need to take the lead on this and the bigger states like California and New York need to lead the way. I'd argue the marijuana legalizing states should too and use some of the new revenue towards that goal.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-13-2017, 11:34 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-uninsured-white-house-236019

The Trump Administration has said that the CBO's finding are "just not believable".

meanwhile a leaked document detailing a White House analysis of the bill present a bleaker forecast of  about 2m more uninsured than the CBO report.

Look, we can't trust the CBO, the CIA, the FBI, the DHS, the generals, the scientists, or the media.  Who am I forgetting?

C'mon, man!  Think!

[Benton]

(03-14-2017, 12:13 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: I really think states need to take the lead on this and the bigger states like California and New York need to lead the way. I'd argue the marijuana legalizing states should too and use some of the new revenue towards that goal.

I've advocated for a while for a plan where the states form a cooperative and negotiate on behalf of anyone who wants insurance.

If you're a single payer and solicit from a dozen insurance companies, you're going to pay a huge rate. That's one of the benefits of working for a large company, typically they negotiate a good benefits package. A state cooperative could do the same for voluntary members (single payers). If you get 10% of each state participating, that's several million people to spread a plan across.

On the legalizing issue, that's sort of what's been happening already with some states approving it, taxing it and using the proceeds to pay for stuff they would normally have to use an income tax for. Which is why the news of Trump's "we're going back to locking up people for smoking pot" is disappointing.

[Belsnickel]

Now, most of the initial 14 million that will lose insurance will do so voluntarily. By removing the mandate, the GOP is going to give an out to those that had insurance simply to avoid paying it. These people were ones that were on insurance reluctantly already. This is something a lot of liberal leaning commentators are ignoring from the CBO report. The conservative leaning commentators are also leaving something out by pointing this out, though, and that is that we will be putting those people back on the list of those that increase the health care costs in general because of their inability to pay. So it is not inaccurate to say we will be essentially going back to the days before the ACA, but we are forgetting how reluctant some of these people were to begin with.

Washington Post did a piece on a number that was in the more lengthy report from the CBO: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/03/14/this-may-be-the-most-brutal-number-in-the-cbo-report/?utm_term=.8d3981f2a081

Quote:Plenty has been made of the big Congressional Budget Office finding that 24 million people could lose their insurance under Republicans' Obamacare replacement over the next decade. That's higher than expected and poses a clear and massive hurdle for Republicans as they attempt to convince dozens of skeptical members.

But there's another number that paints a particularly dire picture for the GOP's alternative — especially in light of President Trump's populist rhetoric.

According to the CBO, 64-year olds making $26,500 per year would see their premiums increase by an estimated 750 percent by 2026. While they are on track to pay $1,700 under the current law, the CBO projects the American Health Care Act would force them to pay $14,600. Even if you grant that inflation will allow them to make slightly more money by 2026, that's still about half of their income going to health care.

The article goes on and there are some charts and things after that to illustrate the point. Definitely an interesting twist to this all.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-14-2017, 01:05 PM)Benton Wrote: I've advocated for a while for a plan where the states form a cooperative and negotiate on behalf of anyone who wants insurance.

If you're a single payer and solicit from a dozen insurance companies, you're going to pay a huge rate. That's one of the benefits of working for a large company, typically they negotiate a good benefits package. A state cooperative could do the same for voluntary members (single payers). If you get 10% of each state participating, that's several million people to spread a plan across.

On the legalizing issue, that's sort of what's been happening already with some states approving it, taxing it and using the proceeds to pay for stuff they would normally have to use an income tax for. Which is why the news of Trump's "we're going back to locking up people for smoking pot" is disappointing.

Employers typically pay 50% of the insurance premium on your behalf.  For example, you pay $400 per month in premiums and your employer pays the same.  An individual might pay $800 or more for the same policy on the individual market.  Employers offer medical insurance as part of an overall compensation package to attract the best candidates for the job. 

Approximately 50% of the US is covered by employer sponsored health insurance. Another 30% approximately through Medicare and Medicaid.  That leaves roughly 20 percent.  The majority of that 20% are the working poor; Americans who work blue collar jobs which don't offer health insurance, not Welfare Queens or illegal immigrants as implied.

The politicians need to do a much better job serving those Americans.  When they do, it will benefit the rest of us.  Not just the those earning $250,000 or more who get a tax break with the proposed plan who are already able to afford executive health insurance plans.