My prediction for president

[Nebuchadnezzar]

My prediction for President of the United States is...
Hillary Clinton!

Not that I'm happy about it but that's what is going to happen and here's why...
Donald Trump!

Now let me explain.
I think Donald Trump got into this race for one reason and one reason only...
As a joke, but people started to like him, back him and he became popular so he's continuing on because he thinks he can win now.

By Donald Trump running for the Republican nomination, he will make sure a Democrat wins the presidency since if he wins the nomination, at least 20% of Republican voters will stay home on election day. If he loses the nomination, he will run as an Independent and take at least 20% of Republican voters away from the GOP candidate. This will give Hillary Clinton the presidency since Democrats are doing everything they can to ensure she wins the nomination over Bernie Sanders.

I believe we are seeing the death of the GOP and it will take a long time for the GOP to recover if it ever does. We are on the verge of a Socialist Utopia and Republicans only have themselves to blame. The next President is going to be able to appoint one maybe two Supreme Court Justices and the Left will be able to put whoever they want on the bench since Republicans will lose the Senate this election.

By Republicans saying they won't even consider Obamas Supreme Court appointment, they are guaranteeing that the American people will vote them out of office. This gives control of the White House, House of Representatives, Senate and Supreme Court control to Democrats. Once they have that control, they can and will do whatever they want.

WooHoo!

[Aquapod770]

(02-21-2016, 12:29 AM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: My prediction for President of the United States is...
Hillary Clinton!

Not that I'm happy about it but that's what is going to happen and here's why...
Donald Trump!

Now let me explain.
I think Donald Trump got into this race for one reason and one reason only...
As a joke, but people started to like him, back him and he became popular so he's continuing on because he thinks he can win now.

By Donald Trump running for the Republican nomination, he will make sure a Democrat wins the presidency since if he wins the nomination, at least 20% of Republican voters will stay home on election day. If he loses the nomination, he will run as an Independent and take at least 20% of Republican voters away from the GOP candidate. This will give Hillary Clinton the presidency since Democrats are doing everything they can to ensure she wins the nomination over Bernie Sanders.

I believe we are seeing the death of the GOP and it will take a long time for the GOP to recover if it ever does. We are on the verge of a Socialist Utopia and Republicans only have themselves to blame. The next President is going to be able to appoint one maybe two Supreme Court Justices and the Left will be able to put whoever they want on the bench since Republicans will lose the Senate this election.

By Republicans saying they won't even consider Obamas Supreme Court appointment, they are guaranteeing that the American people will vote them out of office. This gives control of the White House, House of Representatives, Senate and Supreme Court control to Democrats. Once they have that control, they can and will do whatever they want.  

WooHoo!

Why the woohoo? One party having all the power has never been a good thing. Checks and balances people. 

That said if Trump wins the Republican nomination I'm definitely voting 3rd party.

[samhain]

Unless she's indicted, I think Hillary wins the presidency. Bernie's chances have always been slim. He's 80 years old for Christ's sake. The Democratic Party powers that be know damn well that no matter how much it may seem that socialism is now acceptable to the public at large that an admitted socialist has zero chance in the general. No way in hell he gets the nomination. An aside, though, I do believe it is a sign that we could see a drifting of public sentiment to that line of thinking over the next decade or so, particularly if the middle class continues to get squeezed out.

I believe that Trump is playing his supporters and a certain portion of the electorate for fools. Outside of the wall and the anti-Islam rhetoric it's very tough to get him to be specific about anything. It's very tough to tell what he'd do in office.

At the end of the day, I believe he's in this to sabotage the Republican Party. He's been a liberal for almost his entire life. He supported the Clintons fully until the middle of the last decade. Almost nothing he believes even now qualifies as conservatism. I think when all is said and done, this will be an historic event like no other that the US has seen, i.e. a massive fraud perpetrated on one of the two major political parties by a reality TV celebrity.

My worst fear is what happens if this is true. Even if Trump is conning the right wing and believes nothing he says, even if he has zero intention of being president, someone may take a cue from his act. This someone may be much more sincere. The anger out there is real. A bulletproof candidate can exist outside of dark money and the current system if he/she utilizes the correct form of populism.

A candidate that combined Trump's nativism with Sanders' socialist agenda could be absolutely deadly in a campaign IMO. This candidate would essentially unite both far wings of the two parties and have plenty of steam to take out the establishment's chosen nominees. They could say anything at all and not be held accountable. A nationalistic man of the people. A national socialist, id you will. Sounds terrifyingly familiar, doesn't it?

[*bfine32*]

(02-21-2016, 12:29 AM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: My prediction for President of the United States is...
Hillary Clinton!

Not that I'm happy about it but that's what is going to happen and here's why...
Donald Trump!

Now let me explain.
I think Donald Trump got into this race for one reason and one reason only...
As a joke, but people started to like him, back him and he became popular so he's continuing on because he thinks he can win now.

By Donald Trump running for the Republican nomination, he will make sure a Democrat wins the presidency since if he wins the nomination, at least 20% of Republican voters will stay home on election day. If he loses the nomination, he will run as an Independent and take at least 20% of Republican voters away from the GOP candidate. This will give Hillary Clinton the presidency since Democrats are doing everything they can to ensure she wins the nomination over Bernie Sanders.

I believe we are seeing the death of the GOP and it will take a long time for the GOP to recover if it ever does. We are on the verge of a Socialist Utopia and Republicans only have themselves to blame. The next President is going to be able to appoint one maybe two Supreme Court Justices and the Left will be able to put whoever they want on the bench since Republicans will lose the Senate this election.

By Republicans saying they won't even consider Obamas Supreme Court appointment, they are guaranteeing that the American people will vote them out of office. This gives control of the White House, House of Representatives, Senate and Supreme Court control to Democrats. Once they have that control, they can and will do whatever they want.  

WooHoo!

All of this makes more sense if you don't pay attention to which party came out on top in the last election cycle. 

[JustWinBaby]

A question no one is asking....if Trump becomes POTUS or even the nominee needing Secret Service protection, where are we going to find someone willing to take a bullet for that asshole?

[Belsnickel]

(02-22-2016, 02:09 AM)bfine32 Wrote: All of this makes more sense if you don't pay attention to which party came out on top in the last election cycle. 

If we're talking 2014, the only thing that the midterm elections can tell us about the American people is how apathetic they really are. The only people that turn out are the ones that are all fired up for some reason and the ones that just vote in every election.

(02-22-2016, 10:40 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: A question no one is asking....if Trump becomes POTUS or even the nominee needing Secret Service protection, where are we going to find someone willing to take a bullet for that asshole?

That is a damn good question.

[fredtoast]

(02-22-2016, 02:09 AM)bfine32 Wrote: All of this makes more sense if you don't pay attention to which party came out on top in the last election cycle. 

This quote looks familiar.


Did you happen to use it in '12?

[Vlad]

(02-22-2016, 10:40 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: A question no one is asking....if Trump becomes POTUS or even the nominee needing Secret Service protection, where are we going to find someone willing to take a bullet for that asshole?

The same one that is willing to take a bullet for the muslim sympathizing illegal alien harboring communist asshole we have now.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(02-23-2016, 11:54 AM)Vlad Wrote: The same one that is willing to take a bullet for the muslim sympathizing illegal alien harboring communist asshole we have now.

Oooo, someone is salty today!

[BengalHawk62]

(02-23-2016, 11:54 AM)Vlad Wrote: The same one that is willing to take a bullet for the muslim sympathizing illegal alien harboring communist asshole we have now.

"Get off my lawn."

[Vlad]

Love him or hate him, Trump is your next president.

Political science prof Helmut Norpoth says “Take it to the bank,”.

Norpoths model has been correct 96.1% of the time since 1912, correctly predicting the Clinton, Bush, and Obama elections.

A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.

The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Norpoth announced his prognostication on Monday night during Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, according to The Statesman.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told the alumni audience, according to the student newspaper. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, Norpoth prophesied.


“This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student paper as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong.


“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.
Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.
The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries and caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.


The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.

In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.
The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wins.



http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/

[Rotobeast]

I believe it.

Our country has a habit of swinging from one extreme to another,  anymore.
Knee-jerk voting.

[Vlad]

(02-27-2016, 02:41 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I believe it.

Our country has a habit of swinging from one extreme to another,  anymore.
Knee-jerk voting.

Add to that many people couldn't care less what Trump says, just as many in 2008 couldn't care less what Obama said.

Back then it was only about a good looking, clean, articulate black guy becoming the first black president.

Today people are tired of the same rhetoric these candidates spew every 4 years and want to see the first non-career politician become president.

[JustWinBaby]

Trump is not extreme....he's just uniting stupid across the country.

[Devils Advocate]

I just can't shake the feeling that we're being played.

I hedged my bets with my prediction. So I won't claim that I was correct. I accept that I was in fact incorrect.


I really thought Jeb would be the guy. However, I was correct about Hilary, which I understand wasn't much of a prediction.

At least it put to rest some of the suspicion I have towards national elections being rigged, or at least this particular election being rigged in that particular manner ( I just can't help it ). Maybe they have more than one way to rig any election at any given time. I don't know. But like I said, I can't shake the feeling we're being played. And I swear I'm trying to approach this rationally.

They are gonna give this election to Hilary by putting her up against a clown (Trump) or a Rube (Rubio)! There is no way either of those two defeat Hilary 'scandal' Clinton.

I don't know if I'd stop subscribing to this stuff if Trump were to win. Because there's just too much there to dismiss if he did. But if somebody other than Hilary and possibly Trump were to win, I'd strongly consider returning my tinfoil hat.

I wouldn't vote for any of the remaining candidates. Maybe Kasich, which is surprising because I didn't like him for a very long time. But so far, I have less to complain about him than I do the others. But if that's what will decide my vote, the lesser of two evils, then I will not vote.