So you think Trump won't be elected again in 2024. Wanna bet?

[HarleyDog]

I own some Draftkings stock and this was an article that popped up when I was checking my portfolio. Yep, now you can place a wager on who is going to be elected President in 2024. Although you can't bet legally in America on the next Prez, maybe you can reach out to one of our OTB (over the border) friends to make a bet for you. You can literally put your money where your mouth is. 

All kidding aside, I see this as dangerous. 

Quote:Donald Trump Is The Favorite To Win The 2024 Election - If You Listen To Canadian Betting Markets Where It's Actually Legal To Gamble

Quote:
American residents 18 years or older will be able to vote for the 2024 President in an upcoming election. They can’t however bet on the outcome of the election, as sports betting companies in the U.S. don’t take bets on the presidential election. Residents north of the U.S. can bet on the outcome, with Ontario taking bets on the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election.

Quote:


What Happened: Ontario legalized sports betting in April and is one of the areas that offers betting odds on the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election in the United States. Draftkings began offering betting odds in Ontario in July and updated odds show former President Donald Trump as the favorite and a governor being one of the big gainers in the last month.

Here are the current [/url]odds for 2024 President from DraftKings in Ontario:

• Donald Trump: +275
• Ron DeSantis: +300
• Joe Biden: +600
• Kamala Harris: +1400
• Gavin Newsom: +1400
• Mike Pence: +1800
• Nikki Haley: +2500
• Pete Buttigieg: +2500
• Michelle Obama: +3500
• Hillary Clinton: +4000
  
  

Trump remains the favorite on the DraftKings betting platform, but drops slightly from his +250 level on July 13, when [url=https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/7/13/23207278/us-presidential-election-odds-winner-2024-canada-betting-favorites-donald-trump-ron-desantis]odds went live. DeSantis remains in second place and keeps the same odds.
President Biden ranks third and sees his odds slip from +550 to +600.


California's Governor Newsom is one of the biggest winners over the last month, going from odds of +3000 to +1400 and now ranks tied for fourth.

Vice President Harris and former Vice President Pence both saw their odds fall from +1200 and +1400 respectively when odds went live.

Odds Elsewhere: U.K.-based Bet365 offers betting on the presidential election. The betting platform has DeSantis now listed as the favorite at odds of +275. Trump and Biden rank second and third at +300 and +600 respectively.

Trump was listed at +275 tied with DeSantis in the last Benzinga report on the betting odds. Biden gained slightly going from +650 to +600, but remains back from the odds of +500 and the second place listing he had in June.

Betting exchange company PredictIt, which offers $1.00 payout for the winners of certain outcomes, lists the candidates as follows:

• DeSantis: 29 cents
  
• Trump: 28 cents
  
• Biden: 21 cents
  
• Harris: 8 cents
  
• Newsom: 7 cents
  

DeSantis has taken over the favorite position on PredictIt moving up from 27 cents to 29 cents in the latest report. Biden gained a penny from the 20 cents Benzinga last reported.

Why It’s Important: Betting odds could help show which candidates have momentum heading into the election and how different events impact the odds.

The current odds for Trump show that the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago had little impact on the former president being the favorite or second favorite for sports betting and prediction markets.

Ontario is the most populous province in Canada, with over 14 million people. In close proximity to the United States, Canada could see an increase in political-related betting coinciding with the 2024 election.

As sports betting platforms have launched heavy promotional activity around large sporting events like the Super Bowl and March Madness, it will also be interesting to see if there are odds boosts and heavy promotions around the 2024 election.
Many of the top betting odds candidates have yet to officially announce a run for president in 2024, which could greatly impact the odds. Rumors of Trump potentially exploring a presidential run come as his media company Trump Media & Technology Group is in the process of going public via SPAC merger with Digital World Acquisition Corporation

[Arturo Bandini]

Good luck with that.

[*Nately120*]

Weren't there stories of these betting sites being thrown into turmoil after Biden won in 2020 because people who bet on Trump to win insisted that he actually won and they should be paid as such?

I'd wager none of these places are dumb enough to let people bet on Trump declaring that he won in 2024, because that seems like an inevitability.

[NATI BENGALS]

I was really sad when I missed the initial run up on DKNG stock. Felt like it should be a gold mine. I like them way better than fanduel. But maybe a lot of people are like me and the only time they are on there is football season.

I'll still put in some lineups and hopefully make some money on what I have left in there from last season. But I think making bets at Kroger will be were my gambling money goes.

I did not know we were not allowed to bet on elections.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

2 things:

1. Draftkings sucks
2. This is likely due more to the fact that there is an uncertainty as to who will run for the Dems in '24, while the Reps have 2 candidates who will for sure run.

[*Nately120*]

(08-19-2022, 11:24 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: 2 things:

1. Draftkings sucks
2. This is likely due more to the fact that there is an uncertainty as to who will run for the Dems in '24, while the Reps have 2 candidates who will for sure run.

Yep.  Also, Trump is likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 election whether he is the GOP candidate or the GOP is holding it's breath hoping he doesn't run as a 3rd party or cry rigged on the GOP candidate and blow the whole thing up.

Trump's relationship with the GOP is pure abusive relationship, and they can't move on until he decides it's over and even then if they try to find someone new that's likely to trigger him to reappear and sabotage things. 

[Belsnickel]

I am more focused on 2022. A lot can happen between now and 2024 elections. Hell, Trump could be in prison for all we know.

[*Nately120*]

(08-19-2022, 11:33 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: I am more focused on 2022. A lot can happen between now and 2024 elections. Hell, Trump could be in prison for all we know.

All jokes aside, people have had to look into the constitutionality of prison disqualifying a person from running for president, and it may be one of those "There is nothing in the rules that say an elephant can't play baseball" type situations...right?  I could be wrong.

[Belsnickel]

(08-19-2022, 11:43 AM)Nately120 Wrote: All jokes aside, people have had to look into the constitutionality of prison disqualifying a person from running for president, and it may be one of those "There is nothing in the rules that say an elephant can't play baseball" type situations...right?  I could be wrong.

Oh, I am aware. It would be an interesting constitutional question. Personally, I think there should be an amendment that makes anyone that lacks the right to vote ineligible for office. But that's just me.

[StoneTheCrow]

Eh he was like -800 live, late on election night. If you would’ve hit Biden it would’ve paid pretty decently.

[*Nately120*]

(08-19-2022, 11:55 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Oh, I am aware. It would be an interesting constitutional question. Personally, I think there should be an amendment that makes anyone that lacks the right to vote ineligible for office. But that's just me.

More unprecedented Trump stuff.  Dude throws his hat into the political ring and years later people are googling "can someone in prison become president?"

Greatness takes many forms.

(08-19-2022, 12:06 PM)StoneTheCrow Wrote: Eh he was like -800 live, late on election night. If you would’ve hit Biden it would’ve paid pretty decently.

Biden?  I'd hit that.

[HarleyDog]

(08-19-2022, 11:43 AM)Nately120 Wrote: All jokes aside, people have had to look into the constitutionality of prison disqualifying a person from running for president, and it may be one of those "There is nothing in the rules that say an elephant can't play baseball" type situations...right?  I could be wrong.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/run-president-prison-ask-smithsonian-180974594/



Q: Has anyone ever run for president while in prison?


— L. M. Frank | Los Angeles

Eugene V. Debs was in an Atlanta penitentiary, serving a ten-year sentence, when he lost the 1920 presidential election. Two years earlier, Debs, a labor leader, had spoken out against America’s involvement in World War I. He was convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917, after the prosecution argued that his antiwar speech obstructed military enrollment. The 1920 loss didn’t come as a surprise to Debs, who had run four times before. His fifth and final run, promoted with a campaign button that read “For President Convict No. 9653,” brought him nearly one million votes, says Claire Jerry, curator of political history at the National Museum of American History. President Harding commuted his sentence in December 1921.

[*Nately120*]

(08-19-2022, 12:21 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/run-president-prison-ask-smithsonian-180974594/



Q: Has anyone ever run for president while in prison?


— L. M. Frank | Los Angeles

Eugene V. Debs was in an Atlanta penitentiary, serving a ten-year sentence, when he lost the 1920 presidential election. Two years earlier, Debs, a labor leader, had spoken out against America’s involvement in World War I. He was convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917, after the prosecution argued that his antiwar speech obstructed military enrollment. The 1920 loss didn’t come as a surprise to Debs, who had run four times before. His fifth and final run, promoted with a campaign button that read “For President Convict No. 9653,” brought him nearly one million votes, says Claire Jerry, curator of political history at the National Museum of American History. President Harding commuted his sentence in December 1921.

Nice.  I'd say it would be high time for the USA to admit politicians are criminals by voting for a convicted one, but let's be honest, they'd also be voting for Trump under the notion that he's the most innocent person on earth.

[KillerGoose]

(08-19-2022, 12:06 PM)StoneTheCrow Wrote: Eh he was like -800 live, late on election night. If you would’ve hit Biden it would’ve paid pretty decently.

Which is strange. Polling data had Biden as the clear favorite for some time before the election. Biden was being given ~80% chance of victory as early as September. Just before the election, it was over 90%. 

I had no idea the markets had Trump as that big of a favorite, I would have bet on that in a heartbeat. 

[*Nately120*]

(08-19-2022, 12:28 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Which is strange. Polling data had Biden as the clear favorite for some time before the election. Biden was being given ~80% chance of victory as early as September. Just before the election, it was over 90%. 

I had no idea the markets had Trump as that big of a favorite, I would have bet on that in a heartbeat. 

Trump is such an absurd wildcard, though.  After 2016 you had people on both sides of the aisle looking at a 91% chance Biden wins and saying "Trump is gonna win this thing, I just know it."

[*pally*]

(08-19-2022, 11:43 AM)Nately120 Wrote: All jokes aside, people have had to look into the constitutionality of prison disqualifying a person from running for president, and it may be one of those "There is nothing in the rules that say an elephant can't play baseball" type situations...right?  I could be wrong.

The constitution only has 2 requirements for someone to be eligible to be president.  Age and natural born citizenship

[*Nately120*]

(08-19-2022, 12:32 PM)pally Wrote: The constitution only has 2 requirements for someone to be eligible to be president.  Age and natural born citizenship

Is there a rule that says the president has to be a human being?  I bet a President/VP ticket of Bible/Assault Rifle could do pretty well.

[HarleyDog]

Going back to the prison presidential candidate, I remember vaguely of someone else either having enough signatures to be on the ballot for president or on a primary ticket. This would have been when I was much younger. Maybe sometimes in 80-s or 90's. I could be wrong and probably am, but I remember it for some reason.

[KillerGoose]

(08-19-2022, 12:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Trump is such an absurd wildcard, though.  After 2016 you had people on both sides of the aisle looking at a 91% chance Biden wins and saying "Trump is gonna win this thing, I just know it."

He did still overperform, so he does have a history of that. At least in 2016, Hillary wasn't that big of a favorite. She was given a 67% chance of victory compared to Biden's 90+. You are correct, though. I remember talking to my in-laws about the election. They asked who I thought would win, and I said Biden. They are conservative, so they said "what? why?" and I told them that the polling data had Biden as a clear favorite. They pretty much said your quote verbatim. "Nah, those things aren't accurate. No way Trump loses." 

[Arturo Bandini]

So if he's elected while in jail. Where the meeting will take place ? In prison ?