Tier 3 QB

[*bfine32*]

(08-20-2018, 08:46 AM)fredtoast Wrote: One thing that is obvious is that the Bengals receiving corps was much better in '15 than in any other season.  It is obvious because of the team record 104.1 passer rating.

Another thing that is obvious is that in'15 Green, as well as the rest of the receiving corpse, was more productive with Dalton at QB than McCarron.

Green has his best playoff game in 2015 for the exact same reason that the Bengals passing game set so many other records that year.

So not really understanding what you mean by "dismissing" the obvious.  Unless it is "obvious" to you that the team record passer rating was thanks to McCarron's 4 games and 97 passer rating.  That seems to make sense to some people around here I guess.

So we know Green would have had his best playoff game every if Andy would have been the QB because of how he was performing in the regular season? You might get exactly 2 people to buy that, because throughout his career he has had a passer rating about 30 points lower in the playoffs then the regular season and he had never thrown a TD pass to AJ. 

But for some reason you expect folks to buy "it would have been different that year". Sorry but your fantasy does not over-ride reality. 

The obvious fact is AJ had his best playoff game with someone other than Andy Dalton at QB. You and others can come up with all kinds of other "reasons" and some are quite entertaining, but that's the obvious fact.

This was brought up simply because you made the ridiculous assertion that if we want to get rid of Andy because of poor playoff performances, we should also want to get rid of AJ. You may not be aware of this, but it's very hard for a WR to consistently put up good number when his QB is consistently shitting the bed. 

[fredtoast]

(08-20-2018, 03:53 PM)bfine32 Wrote: So we know Green would have had his best playoff game every if Andy would have been the QB because of how he was performing in the regular season? 

Yes, that is exactly right.  It makes perfect sense that if the Bengals were having their best passing regular season then they would have their best passing post season.  Perfectly logical.

(08-20-2018, 03:53 PM)bfine32 Wrote:  throughout his career he has had a passer rating about 30 points lower in the playoffs then the regular season 

Take 30 points off Dalton's regular season 106.2 and it is still better than the 68.3 McCarron posted in that playoff game.  McCarron's 212 passing yards are also less than Dalton's playoff average of 218.


So here are the two competing theories.

1.  Green had best postseason for the same reasons the Bengals had their best passing regular season ever.

or

2.  Green had best postseason because a QB who had proven that he was not as good as Dalton (handed same offense was less productive and efficient) somehow elevated Green more than Dalton could.

Which one of those makes the most sense?

[*bfine32*]

(08-20-2018, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, that is exactly right.  It makes perfect sense that if the Bengals were having their best passing regular season then they would have their best passing post season.  Perfectly logical.



Take 30 points off Dalton's regular season 106.2 and it is still better than the 68.3 McCarron posted in that playoff game.  McCarron's 212 passing yards are also less than Dalton's playoff average of 218.


So here are the two competing theories.

1.  Green had best postseason for the same reasons the Bengals had their best passing regular season ever.

or

2.  Green had best postseason because a QB who had proven that he was not as good as Dalton (handed same offense was less productive and efficient) somehow elevated Green more than Dalton could.

Which one of those makes the most sense?

Or we could just go with reality. Andy played the Steelers twice that year with passer ratings of 64 and 61 and Andy has always done poorly in the playoffs. Also 2015 was not done we could have just as well expected Andy to nose dive, than continue to perform on the same level. But I didn't mention that earlier because it's not reality. What is reality:

AJ Green had his best ever playoff game with AJM at QB

AJM had a higher passer rating in the post season against the steelers in 2015 than Andy did in the regular season

Andy does poorly in the playoffs.

There's no need to entertain your fantasy scenarios, we have reality to rely on.

But by all means believe whole-heatedly in your fantasies; just understand they are just that. 

[*bfine32*]

(08-20-2018, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, that is exactly right.  It makes perfect sense that if the Bengals were having their best passing regular season then they would have their best passing post season.  Perfectly logical.



Take 30 points off Dalton's regular season 106.2 and it is still better than the 68.3 McCarron posted in that playoff game.  McCarron's 212 passing yards are also less than Dalton's playoff average of 218.


So here are the two competing theories.

1.  Green had best postseason for the same reasons the Bengals had their best passing regular season ever.

or

2.  Green had best postseason because a QB who had proven that he was not as good as Dalton (handed same offense was less productive and efficient) somehow elevated Green more than Dalton could.

Which one of those makes the most sense?

Or we could just go with reality. Andy played the Steelers twice that year with passer ratings of 64 and 61 and Andy has always done poorly in the playoffs. Also 2015 was not done we could have just as well expected Andy to nose dive, than continue to perform on the same level. But I didn't mention that because it's not reality. What is reality:

AJ Green had his best ever playoff game with AJM at QB

AJM had a higher passer rating in the post season against the steelers in 2015 than Andy did in the regular season

Andy does poorly in the playoffs.

There's no need to entertain your fantasy scenarios, we have reality to rely on.

But by all means believe whole-heatedly in your fantasies; just understand they are just that. 

[fredtoast]

(08-20-2018, 04:37 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Or we could just go with reality. Andy played the Steelers twice that year with passer ratings of 64 and 61 and Andy has always done poorly in the playoffs. Also 2015 was not done we could have just as well expected Andy to nose dive, than continue to perform on the same level. But I didn't mention that because it's not reality. What is reality:

AJ Green had his best ever playoff game with AJM at QB

AJM had a higher passer rating in the post season against the steelers in 2015 than Andy did in the regular season

Andy does poorly in the playoffs.

There's no need to entertain your fantasy scenarios, we have reality to rely on.

But by all means believe whole-heatedly in your fantasies; just understand they are just that. 

Reality

Over the first 12 games of 2015 with Dalton playing full time Green averaged 86.4 receiving yards per game.

Over the last 4 games McCarron threw to AJ for 60.8 yards per game.

[*bfine32*]

(08-20-2018, 05:32 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Reality

Over the first 12 games of 2015 with Dalton playing full time Green averaged 86.4 receiving yards per game.

Over the last 4 games McCarron threw to AJ for 60.8 yards per game.

Yes Fred, that is reality. 

Does absolutely nothing to dispel my reality, but at least you pointed to reality. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-20-2018, 03:23 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: To be fair the 3 INT game one of the INTs was basically a punt on 4th down and the other one was a HOF play by Watt.

Why is it always "fair" to make excuses for the hometown QBs picks but it's used as a measuring stick to blast another teams QB when he does it?

[Shake n Blake]

(08-20-2018, 12:17 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Monkey wrench aside; It's not different receivers. It's the exact same receiver. That's obvious reality. 

To put this as simply as I can: Maybe AJ had fewer yards in the 2013 game because he was well covered. 

Hence MLJ going for 130 yards. Unless you think Dalton only decided to suck throwing at the superior receiver.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Reality=  

Andy is a decent QB


AJ McCarron wasn't beating out Peterman in Buff......he is not decent.


/end discussion.

[YsCascadia]

(08-21-2018, 12:42 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: To put this as simply as I can: Maybe AJ had fewer yards in the 2013 game because he was well covered. 

Hence MLJ going for 130 yards. Unless you think Dalton only decided to suck throwing at the superior receiver.

Don't forget the game plan.  2013 I believe was our 2nd attempt at the Texans and Green wasn't targeted in the 1st half because the game plan was to utilize our TE.  Gresham had 2 easy passes that hit him in his hands and would have moved the chains and he didn't catch them.

After that, the game plan was altered and Green was covered almost all half.

In the 2nd half, the adjustments were made and Green was moved around which allowed for him to get open more often but he was still covered pretty tightly.  I do know that a throw by Dalton in the 4th was missed by Green.  The question is whether it was a bad throw by Dalton or a sloppy/slow route by Green.  To me it looked like Green wasn't expecting the ball and when he realized the ball was coming his way tried to get to the spot he was supposed to be.  Of course one could also say that Dalton threw the ball inside when he should have thrown it outside.  Only the players and coaches really know who was wrong.  Hell it could have been both of them.

Now if for some reason the SD game is the one that is being discussed, then I will say that Green dropped 2 (maybe 3) if I remember correctly passes that hit him in his hands.  Much like Gresham did previously.  Interestingly Gresham was the one that caught Dalton's TD pass in that game.  A big blunder came when Gio fumbled the ball right before half time.  Then we decided to go all pass happy and not try to run the ball more,  Gio was hardly used in that game after the fumble.  Marvin Jones did make some good plays with Green struggling.

[Shake n Blake]

(08-22-2018, 08:42 PM)YsCascadia Wrote: Don't forget the game plan.  2013 I believe was our 2nd attempt at the Texans and Green wasn't targeted in the 1st half because the game plan was to utilize our TE.  Gresham had 2 easy passes that hit him in his hands and would have moved the chains and he didn't catch them.

After that, the game plan was altered and Green was covered almost all half.

In the 2nd half, the adjustments were made and Green was moved around which allowed for him to get open more often but he was still covered pretty tightly.  I do know that a throw by Dalton in the 4th was missed by Green.  The question is whether it was a bad throw by Dalton or a sloppy/slow route by Green.  To me it looked like Green wasn't expecting the ball and when he realized the ball was coming his way tried to get to the spot he was supposed to be.  Of course one could also say that Dalton threw the ball inside when he should have thrown it outside.  Only the players and coaches really know who was wrong.  Hell it could have been both of them.

Now if for some reason the SD game is the one that is being discussed, then I will say that Green dropped 2 (maybe 3) if I remember correctly passes that hit him in his hands.  Much like Gresham did previously.  Interestingly Gresham was the one that caught Dalton's TD pass in that game.  A big blunder came when Gio fumbled the ball right before half time.  Then we decided to go all pass happy and not try to run the ball more,  Gio was hardly used in that game after the fumble.  Marvin Jones did make some good plays with Green struggling.

Great memory and good points. There's way too many variables to use one game as proof that AJ was held back by Dalton. 

[YsCascadia]

(08-22-2018, 08:59 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Great memory and good points. There's way too many variables to use one game as proof that AJ was held back by Dalton. 

Yep. 

Don't get me wrong.  Aside from maybe 3, 4 or 5 teams (NE, GB, NO, and possibly Carolina and Seattle) almost every fan base wonders if they could possibly upgrade their QB spot with player x or y.  So wondering what our team could be like without Dalton at QB and having Matt Ryan is not wrong and it isn't impossible to think we might be better with a different QB.

However, to think that Dalton is holding AJ back is laughable.  For all we know, AJ could be holding Dalton back.  Just look at the Bills game last year.  Green had many mistakes that almost cost us the game.  One of Dalton's best season's was the one that Green missed time and had to spread the ball around to other WRs.

A lot of Dalton's success though is due to the ability of the OLine to block (can be said for all the QBs), also the game plan to mask any glaring weaknesses.  When given time, Dalton is just as good as Andrew Luck.  He was the QB of the last 2 seasons that had a terrible OLine and still had us in many games. 

6-9-1?  Not for a few missed FGs and we have a 10-6 record beating out Pittsburgh for the Division, hell we would have beaten Pitt even with the tie.

7-9?  I have already said how I think the Texans were handed the win to that game based off of some bad calls / non calls, however if not for Watson's TD (refer to the Hopkins *catch* and holding) we win that game.  GB, Mixon slipped and loses yardage, he stays upright and we stay perfect against Rodgers.  A complete whiff by WJIII (which I believe was him trying to not draw a penalty since Bell looked to be headed OB) and we beat Pittsburgh.  That is another 10-6 season.  I do believe the Titans also won with a late TD which would have been an 11-5 season.  Not enough to beat the Steelers for the division, but enough to secure a playoff spot.

All of this is with a bad OLine.  If the OLine can improve then Dalton can have an MVP season and we can make a return to the post season.  Hopefully it can lead to a SB appearance and even win.  Though even if he were to win, Dalton will be treated like Eli and not be credited as much as he should.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Green holding Dalton back???

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 04:17 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Green holding Dalton back???

The intellect of the board here.

OK, so you think that when Dalton throws to Green and Green didn't run his route correctly and the ball is INT that the fault is on Dalton?

Green has shown at times to lack concentration.  Sure he has made some great plays, but so has Dalton.  Green has also had passes hit him right in the hands and he fails to make the catch.  What's worse is when Green doesn't catch the ball, then fails to play DB when it is tipped up, and the play is INT.

Only an idiot would fail to see that Green, while being a great WR, is still an incomplete player that has struggled at times and even in some games.  In 2014 when Green missed significant time, Dalton's numbers didn't diminish and in some areas actually improved.

Now, having Green on the field and him being such an incredible player will sometimes lead Dalton to go to him when he has a better option.  Not only Dalton but the coaches.

Go back to when we played Arizona in '15.  It is 3rd and 2 in FG range.  We are down by 3.  Hill was money on short yardage plays all season, not just that game, not only that but Bernard is pretty reliable as well.  Odds are we pick up the 1st down.  What happened?  Green is single covered on Bethel (who, right?), why go for the 1st down, keep the chains moving, and if not, kick the FG, when Peterson is out of this play and your best WR is one on one with a nobody?  So the Bengals got aggressive, Dalton throws to Green and Green had a chance, but came up short.  No worries, kick the FG. 

The problem, Ariz had over a minute to work with, even though they had 0 time outs, they were able to drive into FG range.  The reason is because we didn't run the ball to keep the clock running.   

Green on the field against a scrub CB was an option and not a bad one.  He scores and we win easily.  However the better option was to run the ball, get a 1st down more time comes off the clock, more chances for a TD, don't get convert and the clock is now ticking and running very low, kick the FG, go into OT and have a shot at winning the game.

Same thing happened in 2013 when we played the Dolphins. 

Sometimes Green can give a false sense of security and that can lead to bad decisions which would in essence hold a team and QB back.

I now await your eloquent and in depth rebuttal to address the points instead of just repeating that "Green is the greatest!"

[Nicomo Cosca]

You make a statement that to suggest Dalton is holding Green back is “laughable” and in the same post suggested perhaps it’s our top 5 in the league 7 time Pro Bowl WR that’s holding our average (at best) QB back? Lmao! And you have the audacity to question the intellect of someone else? Easily one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever seen on this board.

[*bfine32*]

(08-23-2018, 04:17 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Green holding Dalton back???

I wonder of the 31 other teams in the NFL how many would take a chance on AJ Green "holding back" their QB? Folks are funny.

Could explain why Andy did so good in the Indy playoff game; he didn't have AJ holding him back.

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 11:46 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You make a statement that to suggest Dalton is holding Green back is “laughable” and in the same post suggested perhaps it’s our top 5 in the league 7 time Pro Bowl WR that’s holding our average (at best) QB back? Lmao! And you have the audacity to question the intellect of someone else? Easily one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever seen on this board.

Yep.... Green is the greatest!

Figured you had 0 rebuttals.  Thanks for playing though.  

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 04:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I wonder of the 31 other teams in the NFL how many would take a chance on AJ Green "holding back" their QB? Folks are funny.

Could explain why Andy did so good in the Indy playoff game; he didn't have AJ holding him back.

You're better than this.

Green is the greatest!

Is such a lame excuse and proof that you have no real argument or point to make. 

Just because Green is a top tier WR, doesn't make him infallible.

I guarantee that if Green were to play the way he did in the SD game, then Patriots fans would be calling for him to be benched until he can figure out how to catch the passes that hit his hands.

Now that you want to bring up the Indy game, care to explain how our Defense failed to stop a Colts Offense that had near to 0 starters across the line? 

Nevermind, It was Dalton.

[*bfine32*]

(08-23-2018, 04:37 PM)YsCascadia Wrote: You're better than this.

Green is the greatest!

Is such a lame excuse and proof that you have no real argument or point to make. 

Just because Green is a top tier WR, doesn't make him infallible.

I guarantee that if Green were to play the way he did in the SD game, then Patriots fans would be calling for him to be benched until he can figure out how to catch the passes that hit his hands.

Now that you want to bring up the Indy game, care to explain how our Defense failed to stop a Colts Offense that had near to 0 starters across the line? 

Nevermind, It was Dalton.

No one said AJ was infallible or the greatest; although, a case good be made based on pure talent. But to even suggest he's holding Andy Dalton back is ridiculous.  

[Shake n Blake]

(08-23-2018, 11:23 AM)YsCascadia Wrote: The intellect of the board here.

OK, so you think that when Dalton throws to Green and Green didn't run his route correctly and the ball is INT that the fault is on Dalton?

Green has shown at times to lack concentration.  Sure he has made some great plays, but so has Dalton.  Green has also had passes hit him right in the hands and he fails to make the catch.  What's worse is when Green doesn't catch the ball, then fails to play DB when it is tipped up, and the play is INT.

Only an idiot would fail to see that Green, while being a great WR, is still an incomplete player that has struggled at times and even in some games.  In 2014 when Green missed significant time, Dalton's numbers didn't diminish and in some areas actually improved.

Now, having Green on the field and him being such an incredible player will sometimes lead Dalton to go to him when he has a better option.  Not only Dalton but the coaches.

Go back to when we played Arizona in '15.  It is 3rd and 2 in FG range.  We are down by 3.  Hill was money on short yardage plays all season, not just that game, not only that but Bernard is pretty reliable as well.  Odds are we pick up the 1st down.  What happened?  Green is single covered on Bethel (who, right?), why go for the 1st down, keep the chains moving, and if not, kick the FG, when Peterson is out of this play and your best WR is one on one with a nobody?  So the Bengals got aggressive, Dalton throws to Green and Green had a chance, but came up short.  No worries, kick the FG. 

The problem, Ariz had over a minute to work with, even though they had 0 time outs, they were able to drive into FG range.  The reason is because we didn't run the ball to keep the clock running.   

Green on the field against a scrub CB was an option and not a bad one.  He scores and we win easily.  However the better option was to run the ball, get a 1st down more time comes off the clock, more chances for a TD, don't get convert and the clock is now ticking and running very low, kick the FG, go into OT and have a shot at winning the game.

Same thing happened in 2013 when we played the Dolphins. 

Sometimes Green can give a false sense of security and that can lead to bad decisions which would in essence hold a team and QB back.

I now await your eloquent and in depth rebuttal to address the points instead of just repeating that "Green is the greatest!"

I'd re-frame this argument by asking:

(a) Is it worth it to pay a top tier WR? They nearly make QB type money, and rarely do you see a team with a well-paid top 5 WR win the SB. This is an argument that me and Berserker used to throw out occasionally on the old boards, and it was met with typical close-minded responses. 

(b) Is Dalton better off when he spreads the ball around? We all know Green is a fantastic WR. This is fact. Most of Dalton's INT's come throwing at AJ though. Usually due to heavy coverage on AJ and force-feeding the top guy.

It'd be nice to have these sorts of deep conversations on here, but unfortunately, we fall into taking sides and scoffing immediately at any outside the box thinking. *Shrugs*