Tier 3 QB

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 04:55 PM)bfine32 Wrote: No one said AJ was infallible or the greatest; although, a case good be made based on pure talent. But to even suggest he's holding Andy Dalton back is ridiculous.  

Actually you did. 

I posted a rather lengthy and long winded argument detailing how Green being the extremely talented WR can in fact cause some bad decisions by, not only Dalton but even the coaches.

I even provided evidence of this happening in the AZ game.  In which Green was the target due to who was covering him and being one on one.  Green had a shot at making the catch.  He didn't.  We lost that game.  Our record was 12-4 that year, winning that game would have made us 13-3 and the 2nd seed. 

Your response?  "I bet 31 teams would love to have Green holding back their QB"! 

That doesn't refute what I said at all.  Yes a lot of teams would love to have Green.  However if Green were a member of the Patriots and he performed at the level he did against Buffalo or against SD in the Playoffs, people would be critical of Green and not Tom Brady, as they should.

I will mention Houston again.  As I have mentioned that pass that could have given us the lead, if NE and Tom Brady threw that pass, NO ONE would assume that Brady made a mistake.  However we give Green the benefit of the doubt that it must/could have been Dalton that threw a wild pass.

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 05:03 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'd re-frame this argument by asking:

(a) Is it worth it to pay a top tier WR? They nearly make QB type money, and rarely do you see a team with a well-paid top 5 WR win the SB. This is an argument that me and Berserker used to throw out occasionally on the old boards, and it was met with typical close-minded responses. 

(b) Is Dalton better off when he spreads the ball around? We all know Green is a fantastic WR. This is fact. Most of Dalton's INT's come throwing at AJ though. Usually due to heavy coverage on AJ and force-feeding the top guy.

It'd be nice to have these sorts of deep conversations on here, but unfortunately, we fall into taking sides and scoffing immediately at any outside the box thinking. *Shrugs*

This is true.  Top tier WRs are the reason how many teams have won SBs?

Other than the Cowboys and San Fran, I can't name too many others.

As I have said, Dalton thinking like many Bengals fans, that Green is the Greatest!, can actually hold him back.  Throwing to double coverage and thinking that Green being 1 on 1 is the best option especially when the CB isn't the number 1, hurts Dalton a lot.  As been mentioned Green doesn't flip to be a defender when the ball pops in the air.  He doesn't think to bat the ball down, instead usually just watches the ball go to the defender and then tackles after the catch is secured.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-23-2018, 05:03 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'd re-frame this argument by asking:

(a) Is it worth it to pay a top tier WR? They nearly make QB type money, and rarely do you see a team with a well-paid top 5 WR win the SB. This is an argument that me and Berserker used to throw out occasionally on the old boards, and it was met with typical close-minded responses.

(b) Is Dalton better off when he spreads the ball around? We all know Green is a fantastic WR. This is fact. Most of Dalton's INT's come throwing at AJ though. Usually due to heavy coverage on AJ and force-feeding the top guy.

It'd be nice to have these sorts of deep conversations on here, but unfortunately, we fall into taking sides and scoffing immediately at any outside the box thinking. *Shrugs*

Oh please, Shake...

http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Will-an-elite-WR-finally-win-the-Super-Bowl-again

And I never said Green was infallible but you don’t get to say it’s laughable to suggest Dalton is holding back Green and then say the opposite is true and expect to be taken seriously. People are always making excuses about our lack of weapons outside of Green but now Dalton would be better off without him? Which is it? How would Dalton’s career numbers look at this point if he had just an average #1WR all these years? Do you honestly think he’d have as much success? I don’t.

[Shake n Blake]

(08-23-2018, 07:11 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Oh please, Shake...

http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Will-an-elite-WR-finally-win-the-Super-Bowl-again

And I never said Green was infallible but you don’t get to say it’s laughable to suggest Dalton is holding back Green and then say the opposite is true and expect to be taken seriously. People are always making excuses about our lack of weapons outside of Green but now Dalton would be better off without him? Which is it? How would Dalton’s career numbers look at this point if he had just an average #1WR all these years? Do you honestly think he’d have as much success? I don’t.

The Falcons didn't win the Super Bowl, and if you look at all the top guys of the past 20 years, how many got rings in their prime?

Megatron
Andre Johnson
Chad Johnson
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Odell Beckham
Dez Bryant
Larry Fitzgerald
TO
Moss
etc etc

Some want to dismiss it as a myth, but there is a lot of evidence to support the stance that paying a top WR isn't conducive to winning championships. At least enough evidence for you to respect that take.

To the bolded, it's not so much that I think Dalton's numbers would be better or worse. It's 2 things:

1. Not paying a WR 15+ million per would allow for other positions to be strengthened.

2. Spreading the ball around makes the offense less predictable and prevents the QB from leaning on 1 receiver as a crutch or force-feeding to get that guy his touches. 

I've tracked Dalton's stats sans AJ before - and I'm not about to compile them again - but lets just say there was surprisingly minimal drop off. Yes there was some drop off, but consider that he was working entirely without a primary WR...and often without his top 2-3 guys in these games. 

If there was some form of solid guy in place of AJ (say a Kelvin Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery) - I'm not sure there would be any drop off at all...assuming we don't force feed those guys the same way.

---------

Fwiw, this is all just a theory. I'm not saying for sure that we'd be better off with an average #1 and allocating money elsewhere, but it's certainly something I feel is worthy of discussion.

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 07:39 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The Falcons didn't win the Super Bowl, and if you look at all the top guys of the past 20 years, how many got rings in their prime?

Megatron
Andre Johnson
Chad Johnson
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Odell Beckham
Dez Bryant
Larry Fitzgerald
TO
Moss
etc etc

Some want to dismiss it as a myth, but there is a lot of evidence to support the stance that paying a top WR isn't conducive to winning championships. At least enough evidence for you to respect that take.

To the bolded, it's not so much that I think Dalton's numbers would be better or worse. It's 2 things:

1. Not paying a WR 15+ million per would allow for other positions to be strengthened.

2. Spreading the ball around makes the offense less predictable and prevents the QB from leaning on 1 receiver as a crutch or force-feeding to get that guy his touches. 

I've tracked Dalton's stats sans AJ before - and I'm not about to compile them again - but lets just say there was surprisingly minimal drop off. Yes there was some drop off, but consider that he was working entirely without a primary WR...and often without his top 2-3 guys in these games. 

If there was some form of solid guy in place of AJ (say a Kelvin Benjamin or Alshon Jeffery) - I'm not sure there would be any drop off at all...assuming we don't force feed those guys the same way.

---------

Fwiw, this is all just a theory. I'm not saying for sure that we'd be better off with an average #1 and allocating money elsewhere, but it's certainly something I feel is worthy of discussion.

Hence the words, "For all we know".

It should be discussed.  Real fans don't just watch the games and listen to the pundits.  Real fans speculate what caused the play to fail.

Was it just the right defense, was it the QB, WR, blocking.  If it was the QB, was it the way he threw the ball, did he have the enough time to step into the throw?  If it was the WR, did the WR run sloppy route, slower than practice, was he taking the play off because he wasn't expecting the ball?  

[Nicomo Cosca]

You made the claim that Green could be holding Dalton back, the onus is on YOU to prove that claim, not me to refute it. I’ll just rely on the fact that anyone not in the Andy Dalton mega-fan club or non-Bengals fans in general would consider such a claim absolutely ridiculous. I’m not going to sit here and list a handful of plays where Dalton was clearly the reason a pass to AJ didn’t work (although we don’t have to go any further back that the last preseason game against Dallas) because that’s much too small a sample size considering they’ve been together 7 years. We could find plenty of evidence for both if we really tried, I just know which I would find more of.

[CornerBlitz]

(08-23-2018, 08:49 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You made the claim that Green could be holding Dalton back, the onus is on YOU to prove that claim, not me to refute it. I’ll just rely on the fact that anyone not in the Andy Dalton mega-fan club or non-Bengals fans in general would consider such a claim absolutely ridiculous. I’m not going to sit here and list a handful of plays where Dalton was clearly the reason a pass to AJ didn’t work (although we don’t have to go any further back that the last preseason game against Dallas) because that’s much too small a sample size considering they’ve been together 7 years. We could find plenty of evidence for both if we really tried, I just know which I would find more of.

It's pretty ridiculous that people are even discussing this to be honest.  Getting rid of the best Bengals WR in history could be better for the club? C'mon guys. Andy Dalton and the rest of this offense has wasted AJ's prime and it's a damn shame. I'm sick and tired of seeing AJ beat his man only to see a throw out of bounds or not even close.

It reminds me of the NBA when a superstar gets injured and the team goes on a 2 game win streak and everyone claims that the team is better without the superstar because the offense moves the ball more. It is pure nonsense.

[HuDey]

So...is this star WR holding back the QB thingy league wide, or is it exclusive to Cincinnati?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Mike Brown and Merv are the two biggest culprits holding anyone back......certainly not AJ.

[YsCascadia]

(08-23-2018, 08:49 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You made the claim that Green could be holding Dalton back, the onus is on YOU to prove that claim, not me to refute it. I’ll just rely on the fact that anyone not in the Andy Dalton mega-fan club or non-Bengals fans in general would consider such a claim absolutely ridiculous. I’m not going to sit here and list a handful of plays where Dalton was clearly the reason a pass to AJ didn’t work (although we don’t have to go any further back that the last preseason game against Dallas) because that’s much too small a sample size considering they’ve been together 7 years. We could find plenty of evidence for both if we really tried, I just know which I would find more of.

I see that some of my responses were removed so I guess I better be careful on how I reply to you since you will probably go running.

I posted why in detail.  You have yet to address the points made in the previous post and it just shows how lame any response from you will be.

Your response is the typical ignorant Green is the Greatest.  No substance.

(08-24-2018, 12:48 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: It's pretty ridiculous that people are even discussing this to be honest.  Getting rid of the best Bengals WR in history could be better for the club? C'mon guys. Andy Dalton and the rest of this offense has wasted AJ's prime and it's a damn shame.  I'm sick and tired of seeing AJ beat his man only to see a throw out of bounds or not even close.

It reminds me of the NBA when a superstar gets injured and the team goes on a 2 game win streak and everyone claims that the team is better without the superstar because the offense moves the ball more.  It is pure nonsense.

OK, Strawman alert.  NO ONE said to get rid of the Green.  Just that Green COULD be a factor to some bad plays that we have had.  Green has at times ran poor routes and has jogged for plays when he doesn't think he is getting the ball.  This does in fact lead to those overthrows, since he isn't at the spot Dalton expects him to be.

It is nonsense to believe that one player is so super duper that he can't cause some bad plays.

(08-24-2018, 12:23 PM)HuDey Wrote: So...is this star WR holding back the QB thingy league wide, or is it exclusive to Cincinnati?

T.O. was considered a star WR that is holding back QBs, he is a HOF.  Moss was hit with this as well in his time.  Kelvin Benjamin was traded.  Dez Bryant.  Sammy Watkins.  Giants have won 2 SBs without Odell, haven't done much since.  I don't even know if they made the playoffs with Odell.

So does that answer your question?  Probably not.  It will probably be ignored or I am sure people will try and say that Green is better than all of them combined since Green is the Greatest.

(08-24-2018, 03:26 PM)Wyche Wrote: Mike Brown and Merv are the two biggest culprits holding anyone back......certainly not AJ.

No one is denying this.

However the point was that we don't know all of the factors in any given play and when Dalton misses his connection to Green, it isn't impossible to blame the miss on Green. 

I used the words "for all we know" to clarify that we can't be sure, but their might be times where Green could be holding Dalton back.  Instead of Dalton throwing to someone else, he force feeds to Green.   If he doesn't throw to Green, then he is slammed for not going to his playmaker, if he does throw to Green and doesn't connect then he is blamed for forcing the ball.

Hell there are times that when Green gets the ball he wasn't the best option.  Another WR could have gained more yardage or even a TD. 

None of these points were addressed instead I was met with Green is the Greatest.  The only one that has understood is Sunset.

[HuDey]

(08-24-2018, 05:35 PM)YsCascadia Wrote: I see that some of my responses were removed so I guess I better be careful on how I reply to you since you will probably go running.

I posted why in detail.  You have yet to address the points made in the previous post and it just shows how lame any response from you will be.

Your response is the typical ignorant Green is the Greatest.  No substance.


OK, Strawman alert.  NO ONE said to get rid of the Green.  Just that Green COULD be a factor to some bad plays that we have had.  Green has at times ran poor routes and has jogged for plays when he doesn't think he is getting the ball.  This does in fact lead to those overthrows, since he isn't at the spot Dalton expects him to be.

It is nonsense to believe that one player is so super duper that he can't cause some bad plays.


T.O. was considered a star WR that is holding back QBs, he is a HOF.  Moss was hit with this as well in his time.  Kelvin Benjamin was traded.  Dez Bryant.  Sammy Watkins.  Giants have won 2 SBs without Odell, haven't done much since.  I don't even know if they made the playoffs with Odell.

So does that answer your question?  Probably not.  It will probably be ignored or I am sure people will try and say that Green is better than all of them combined since Green is the Greatest.



No one is denying this.

However the point was that we don't know all of the factors in any given play and when Dalton misses his connection to Green, it isn't impossible to blame the miss on Green. 

I used the words "for all we know" to clarify that we can't be sure, but their might be times where Green could be holding Dalton back.  Instead of Dalton throwing to someone else, he force feeds to Green.   If he doesn't throw to Green, then he is slammed for not going to his playmaker, if he does throw to Green and doesn't connect then he is blamed for forcing the ball.

Hell there are times that when Green gets the ball he wasn't the best option.  Another WR could have gained more yardage or even a TD. 

None of these points were addressed instead I was met with Green is the Greatest.  The only one that has understood is Sunset.

I have never heard it said that any of those players you listed “held thier QB back”. Prima donnas? Sure. Pains in the ass?..definitely. But how many of those QB’s fared better after those guys left?..To be clear, I am not putting Green or any other WR on a pedestal, My point is that the notion that AJ Green is somehow the reason that Andy Dalton has had a largely mediocre career is just crazy. EVERY Qb deals with dropped balls, bad routes, and WR who at times fail to break up an interception. The great ones rise above it, and if you find yourself constantly making excuses for a guy....he isn’t one of them.

In one of your previous posts you claimed that Dalton throwing to Green in double coverage etc, was holding Dalton back. Are you blaming Green because his QB can’t make the correct decisions about where to throw the ball?...Or is that a case of Andy Dalton holding Andy Dalton back?

[YsCascadia]

(08-24-2018, 06:21 PM)HuDey Wrote: I have never heard it said that any of those players you listed “held thier QB back”. Prima donnas? Sure. Pains in the ass?..definitely. But how many of those QB’s fared better after those guys left?..To be clear, I am not putting Green or any other WR on a pedestal, My point is that the notion that AJ Green is somehow the reason that Andy Dalton has had a largely mediocre career is just crazy. EVERY Qb deals with dropped balls, bad routes, and WR who at times fail to break up an interception. The great ones rise above it, and if you find yourself constantly making excuses for a guy....he isn’t one of them.

In one of your previous posts you claimed that Dalton throwing to Green in double coverage etc, was holding Dalton back. Are you blaming Green because his QB can’t make the correct decisions about where to throw the ball?...Or is that a case of Andy Dalton holding Andy Dalton back?

This is NOT the notion.  The notion is that for all we know, given that we really don't know much on any given play,  Green might be the one that we should be critical of.  Hence Green holding Dalton back.  I have posted the Arizona game as an example.  The Miami game of 2013 is another.  Even though we beat Buffalo last year, Green was the worst player on that field.

When people call someone a cancer they aren't saying that those guys are making their team better.

Dalton throwing to Green in double coverage is not necessarily the wrong decision.  Green is after all a hell of a WR.  The point is that Green's ability can make Dalton choose that option instead of looking elsewhere.  If Green isn't on the field, then Dalton actually does better at reading the defense and taking what is given to him.  Yes Dalton does deserve to be criticized, I would NEVER claim that Dalton is the best QB.  However the point that is going over many people's head is that having Green be the top WR that he is can actually be a detriment to the development of a team.

Look I am all for having Green, I wouldn't want to see him go anywhere else.  Yet to claim that Dalton is holding Green back is wrong.

[CornerBlitz]

(08-24-2018, 06:46 PM)YsCascadia Wrote:  However the point that is going over many people's head is that having Green be the top WR that he is can actually be a detriment to the development of a team.

[fredtoast]

C'mon, leave Green alone.

It is obviously Trumps fault.

[YsCascadia]

(08-24-2018, 08:26 PM)CornerBlitz Wrote:

Well there ya go.  A smiley.  How does one debate or concede such a well thought out and articulated argument?

[YsCascadia]

(08-24-2018, 08:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: C'mon, leave Green alone.

It is obviously Trumps fault.

LOL.  I was gonna blame Obama, but Trump works.

[HuDey]

(08-24-2018, 06:46 PM)YsCascadia Wrote: This is NOT the notion.  The notion is that for all we know, given that we really don't know much on any given play,  Green might be the one that we should be critical of.  Hence Green holding Dalton back.  I have posted the Arizona game as an example.  The Miami game of 2013 is another.  Even though we beat Buffalo last year, Green was the worst player on that field.

When people call someone a cancer they aren't saying that those guys are making their team better.

Dalton throwing to Green in double coverage is not necessarily the wrong decision.  Green is after all a hell of a WR.  The point is that Green's ability can make Dalton choose that option instead of looking elsewhere.  If Green isn't on the field, then Dalton actually does better at reading the defense and taking what is given to him.  Yes Dalton does deserve to be criticized, I would NEVER claim that Dalton is the best QB.  However the point that is going over many people's head is that having Green be the top WR that he is can actually be a detriment to the development of a team.

Look I am all for having Green, I wouldn't want to see him go anywhere else.  Yet to claim that Dalton is holding Green back is wrong.

One thing I agree with you on is the selfish T.O., OchoCinco type of ME first WR. I can’t stand that type of player and I agree that regardless of thier talent they can still have a negative impact on a football team. Also I see AJ Green as a very good WR, but he does not dominate in the way that Randy Moss and others did.

I get what you are saying about Dalton locking on to Green at times when it might not be a great choice, and maybe Dalton is better at making decisions when Green is out of the lineup. But even if that is true that is a Dalton problem, not a case of Green holding Dalton back.

[YsCascadia]

(08-24-2018, 10:25 PM)HuDey Wrote: One thing I agree with you on is the selfish T.O., OchoCinco type of ME first WR. I can’t stand that type of player and I agree that regardless of thier talent they can still have a negative impact on a football team. Also I see AJ Green as a very good WR, but he does not dominate in the way that Randy Moss and others did.

I get what you are saying about Dalton locking on to Green at times when it might not be a great choice, and maybe Dalton is better at making decisions when Green is out of the lineup. But even if that is true that is a Dalton problem, not a case of Green holding Dalton back.

Finally an argument.

OK, I see why you would blame Dalton and not Green. 

So let me put it this way.  How many times did Dalton throw to Green in the Buffalo game in which Green had an uncontested ball bounce off of his hands and then into the hands of the DB?  Is that a Dalton problem or a Green problem?  The INT goes against Dalton, which in turn makes his numbers look worse than they are.

I did mention the Arizona game.  The pass to Green was catchable.  He was up against a number 2 CB in single coverage.  Dalton (or the coaches) put his trust in his top WR to make the play.  Green doesn't.  The loss is on the whole team and while Green is also not credited with a catch, TD and the yards to go with it, Dalton is the one that is scrutinized and doesn't get the completion, TD and yards, he also gets an attempt.  Which a higher attempt / completion affects the overall rating of the QB.  Green may get dinged for a dropped pass, but that is it, and dropped passes aren't official NFL stats.  So is that not Green holding Dalton back?  Dalton did what he was supposed to do, Green did not.

It seems that when Green doesn't make a catch, people will say, Oh well, "9 out of 10 he makes that catch" and give him the benefit of doubt.  Even though it isn't 9 out of 10, I don't know what the number is, but he doesn't catch 90% of catchable passes.  Yet if Dalton doesn't get a completion then we say that "He needs to throw the ball better", and we look at completion % and assume that every miss was on him.  We don't give Dalton the same benefit, even though he has proven to be very accurate and is able to make throws in tight windows and coverage.  It seems that we say that Green is successful in spite of Dalton.  I find it odd.

That is why I don't bash Dalton as much as the narrative does.  I don't claim him to be worse than a QB that played only 7 games last year.  I am also willing to be critical of every player, including Green, and try to see if maybe instead of Green being such a huge advantage, to sometimes being a liability.  Again if Green catches that ball in Arizona and we win the game, 13-3 and the 2nd seed.  Dalton might have been recovered enough to play in the postseason that year.

[Shake n Blake]

I have a feeling that the "tier 3" QB is going to light it up this year.

Should be interesting watching threads like this dissipate. Again.

[Passepartout]

Yeah but unless he gets over the playoff hump with the coach, then he will not be elite. Meaning that of Dalton.