Are we being realistic with Free Agency expectations?

[casear2727]

CincyWestside made an interesting post in the thread "The minimum for me to be satisfied".

His take seems to cover a majority of the posters here and on twitter. I thought it would be interesting to see how these numbers work.

First, sign Bates long term. Front load the contract so we are hampered when it comes time to pay Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

Second, sign CJ. Great team leader and provides adaquate production from the TE considering the WR group we have.

Third, sign either Ogunjobi or Hill. I prefer Og, but if he gets too pricey then divert that to Hill. Or if both are cheap enough, then sign both.

Fourth, see if Gronk is serious about playing with Burrow. He'd be great to use in redzone and late game situations. He might enjoy it more when he's not leaned on as much as the Pats and Bucs needed him to do.

Fifth, rebuild the OL in FA. No more drafting players to fill OL holes. We have a bad record of it. I prefer maybe 1 top tier OL FA (pricey) and then 2 solid ones. I trust Zac to find guys who fit our system like he did last offseason.


Sign Bates, CJ, Hill, Gronk, 1 Top OL, 2 Solid OL totals around $78M and that is without front loading Bates.

$78M is more than we have after cutting Waynes, zero for the draft, and we still need to sign/replace 13 more players:

Larry Ogunjobi
Josh Tupou
Vernon Hargreaves
Kevin Huber
Brandon Allen
Clark Harris
Eli Apple
Jordan Evans
Mike Thomas
Jalen Davis
Tre Flowers
Darius Phillips
Auden Tate

It is crazy how fast the dollars add up and this is with our our LBers and offensive stars still on rookie contracts. We might need to temper our expectations for this offseason and be prepared for some tough biz decisions down the road once the rookie contracts expire.

I am sure we can all find more savings but this is the data I used:

Signing Bates longterm to meet his terms as one of the highest paid safeties is $16M - 18M

CJ is projected to be at $8.3M

Hill is projected to be at 8.75M. Ogunjobi prior to injury was projected higher than Hill.

Gronk was paid $8M this past season.

1 top tier Oline. Armstead (T) 20M, Scherff (G) 17M, Jensen (C.) 13M. (used 17M avg for calculation, replaced Reiff on player list)

2 solid oline. T Brown (T) 10M, Moses (T) 8M, Tomlinson (G) 9M, Daniels (G) 10M. (used 19M for calculation, replaced Spain and Johnson on player list)

[Housh]

Yes


We can easily sign 2 OL

[Housh]

(02-17-2022, 03:44 PM)casear2727 Wrote: CJ is projected to be at $8.3M

Hill is projected to be at 8.75M. Ogunjobi prior to injury was projected higher than Hill.

Gronk was paid $8M this past season.

1 top tier Oline. Armstead (T) 20M, Scherff (G) 17M, Jensen © 13M. (used 17M avg for calculation, replaced Reiff on player list)

2 solid oline. T Brown (T) 10M, Moses (T) (8M), Tomlinson (G) 9M, Daniels (G) 10M. (used 19M for calculation, replaced Spain and Johnson on player list)

CJ ain’t getting anywhere around 8 mil. He’s not THAT good. I think Hill and Ogunjobi are definitely getting around what you listed tho. One should be back.

[Big Boss]

-Gronk's probably not realistic unless his team reaches out to the Bengals and he's willing to take a one-year deal on the cheaper side. I'm honestly not thinking much about this one. Just sounded like Gronk thinking out loud and not serious interest.
-I figure we're going to have to choose between Ogunjobi or Hill. Argument could be made for either of them. You bring Ossai back into the fold and maybe draft another guy or two.
-Not to be a pessimist but I think Bates walks. Dude played phenomenally in the playoffs, but I'm wary of making him the highest paid safety in the league.

If the front office can keep the core defense in place (with the subtraction of one or two guys), then it's time to throw money at the offensive line. The defense has kept us in games almost all season, and frankly they're the reason we made it to the Super Bowl. This offense should be scoring 30+ points a game and they're not. Fix that side of the ball.

[MileHighGrowler]

It's going to get really dicey in a few years, hence the reason to strike now. I don't think Bates gets the deal he wants. He's either going to be tagged or let go.

Gronk is something that would be something fun, but I don't think anyone expects that unless he came in super cheap. That's a fun piece (I wouldn't even say he's "luxury" status any more) but not key to the team.

If this team stays hot the next couple of seasons, I wonder if any of the guys would start taking some team-friendly deals to keep the team hot. Everyone wanting max money creates a lot of challenges, but I guess it's also what keeps the league a little more interesting.

[casear2727]

(02-17-2022, 03:50 PM)Housh Wrote: CJ ain’t getting anywhere around 8 mil. He’s not THAT good. I think Hill and Ogunjobi are definitely getting around what you listed tho. One should be back.

I agree.  All salary #'s are based on PFF projections.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-17-2022, 03:50 PM)Housh Wrote: CJ ain’t getting anywhere around 8 mil. He’s not THAT good. I think Hill and Ogunjobi are definitely getting around what you listed tho. One should be back.

So...when the cap rises. Salaries rise. And players from teams that win, tend to get paid in free agency.

[Au165]

I disagree with a couple of the assumptions...

• I disagree you "front load" the contract for Bates, and the idea of it is generally a falsehood in the NFL. In reality, you go with a substantial signing bonus and then structure the backend with heavy roster bonuses that allow Bates to get the big media number he is after for the ooows and awwws but in reality he may not make it to the back end to earn out the roster bonuses. 14.5-15 for a cap number next year is my guess.
• If you are signing C.J. you aren't signing Gronk, so this is an either or situation. People need to understand they are filling a similar role in veteran reliable TE but with limited vertical threat ability. I am projecting about 7 Million in cap to this decision.
• I agree, it may come down to either or here but I also wonder in a similarly flooded market if we don't get one back on a one year deal (potentially Larry O). I would budget about 8 for this signing on next year's cap.
• As for the ability to sign additional O linemen, I think you are budgeting around 22-25 Million for next year to sign these guys. We will see who we can get, and if we can't get two for that money look for the rest to be thrown at a CB and they go O line at 31.
  

Doing some quick math off this, I am projecting somewhere around 55 or so for the above mentioned major FA decisions. Now with that said we still need to make some decisions on re-signs but most are cheap. Some of the easier decisions will probably be moving on from Harris and Huber as you can get both those guys usually cheap as rookies. Then you are probably talking about guys like Topou, Flowers, Allen all of which have a shot to be back I think (Topou least likely in my mind).

[SladeX]

I don’t give a damn about Gronk, especially if he comes at the price of truly and fully addressing the OL.
The only area, besides the draft, of course, that scouting should be focused on is the OL.

[casear2727]

(02-17-2022, 03:57 PM)Au165 Wrote: I disagree with a couple of the assumptions...

• I disagree you "front load" the contract for Bates, and the idea of it is generally a falsehood in the NFL. In reality, you go with a substantial signing bonus and then structure the backend with heavy roster bonuses that allow Bates to get the big media number he is after for the ooows and awwws but in reality he may not make it to the back end to earn out the roster bonuses. 14.5-15 for a cap number next year is my guess.
• If you are signing C.J. you aren't signing Gronk, so this is an either or situation. People need to understand they are filling a similar role in veteran reliable TE but with limited vertical threat ability. I am projecting about 7 Million in cap to this decision.
• I agree, it may come down to either or here but I also wonder in a similarly flooded market if we don't get one back on a one year deal (potentially Larry O). I would budget about 8 for this signing on next year's cap.
• As for the ability to sign additional O linemen, I think you are budgeting around 22-25 Million for next year to sign these guys. We will see who we can get, and if we can't get two for that money look for the rest to be thrown at a CB and they go O line at 31.
  

Doing some quick math off this, I am projecting somewhere around 55 or so for the above mentioned major FA decisions. Now with that said we still need to make some decisions on re-signs but most are cheap. Some of the easier decisions will probably be moving on from Harris and Huber as you can get both those guys usually cheap as rookies. Then you are probably talking about guys like Topou, Flowers, Allen all of which have a shot to be back I think (Topou least likely in my mind).

To be clear Bates #'s are not front loaded on my total.  I agree with your assessment on Bates contract, although his age could make it more possible he finishes the contract.

I agree on TE, saves 11M

New Oline you budget 22-25 instead of original 36, saves 11-14M


2 oline for 22-25M is doable, Armstead & Schreff are no longer options, but any combination of the 2nd tier works, might be able to slide in a Conner Williams if we get good deals on all 3, Moses, Daniels, Williams...?  Solid CB may not be an option if we sign 3 oline.

Huber reportedly informed Simmons that 2022 will be his last year and Harris has publicly stated he is not retiring.  Not that they have the authority, just providing info.

I am guessing with us drafting 31st we would be ok with $8M for draftees and we always seem to like to have some left over..5M?  Thats 13M - doesnt leave much for the 13 unsigned. 55+13 = 68M

[leonardfan40]

(02-17-2022, 03:50 PM)Housh Wrote: CJ ain’t getting anywhere around 8 mil. He’s not THAT good. I think Hill and Ogunjobi are definitely getting around what you listed tho. One should be back.

His last contract averaged over $6 mil a year. Salary cap is going up as well and he just had his best year yet. $8 mil avg wouldn’t shock me. That’s just where contracts are headed. I’d have a hard time giving him more than $7 mil a year and that’s because of his leadership. Hopefully he isn’t worried about breaking the bank and comes in at a reasonable price.

As for the Gronk idea others are throwing out, I love the idea but he should be LAST priority if we are able to fix the o line and bring our guys back and still have enough left over to make a run at him. He’s a luxury, not a necessity.

[Yogo]

(02-17-2022, 03:50 PM)Housh Wrote: CJ ain’t getting anywhere around 8 mil. He’s not THAT good. I think Hill and Ogunjobi are definitely getting around what you listed tho. One should be back.

I agree, but have you seen some of the FA contracts we've offered to duds in the past?  Antonio Bryant-ish?  Also Mike Brown is a pretty rewarding, loyal, take care of our own kind of guy.

[J24]

Harsh decisions will have to be made that's just a reality. I would not be that shocked if a guy like Boyd is traded and Hopkins is cut. Which would add nearly 14 million to the cap. Additionally you could cut Wayne's, Perine, and Brandon Wilson contract and the cap would be around 85 Million.
You sign Bates for 15 Million, UZ for 7, and Hill/Larry for 8 million- That leaves you with 55 Million dollars of Cap space left to play with it.

[Mobster]

(02-17-2022, 04:45 PM)J24 Wrote: Harsh decisions will have to be made that's just a reality. I would not be that shocked if a guy like Boyd is traded and Hopkins is cut. Which would add nearly 14 million to the cap. Additionally you could cut Wayne's, Perine, and Brandon Wilson contract and the cap would be around 85 Million.
You sign Bates for 15 Million,  UZ for 7, and Hill/Larry for 8 million-  That leaves you with 55 Million dollars of Cap space left to play with it.

Boyd isn't going anywhere. Hopkins may end up being released, but it won't be until after we've acquired an upgrade.

We have plenty of room to sign high quality free agents without gutting the team of core players like Boyd

[*pally*]

Totally. The Bengals have 19 URFA of their own that need to be re-signed or replaced. That cap space will disappear faster than we think with that many signees

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[casear2727]

(02-17-2022, 05:24 PM)Mobster Wrote: Boyd isn't going anywhere. Hopkins may end up being released, but it won't be until after we've acquired an upgrade.

We have plenty of room to sign high quality free agents without gutting the team of core players like Boyd

What do you consider high quality and how many?  What are you thinking we do in free agency?

[THE PISTONS]

Well...about 15 other teams need to upgrade their offensive line...so it's not just as easy as having our pick. We'll need to dish out a large contract or 2.

It's doable. Am I 100% sure that they'll pay a lineman like a $40 million signing bonus? No. A $30 million signing bonus? No. A $25 million signing bonus? No.

We shall see.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Chiefs replaced 5 lineman in 1 offseason. Surely we could do 4. Chiefs had 1 of the better lines in the league this year

[samhain]

I think the main issue isn't lack of money so much as too many spots to fill. Some are backups that can be filled with mid round picks and cheaper vets, but some are holes at major starting spots.

I think the team might surprise us when it comes to conventional wisdom. Bates is a huge question for me. 16-18 is big money for a team that doesn't love throwing that kind of coin at safeties. I wouldn't be surprised to see them find a young safety in the draft and spend money on a vet corner. They've shown that they have zero qualms about spending on FA corners, and the need isn't a small one.

My hope is that they can poach some cut veterans to fill these spots when they start hitting the streets.

[CincyDog]

OJ Howard is the TE I would be targeting in FA.