Tee’s market price

[Luvnit2]

As I look at teams with top WR duos in 2024, one thing sticks out. Only one is still alive in the playoffs. Only the Eagles with Brown and Smith made the final 4. Brown is on his second contract and Smith on a rookie deal. Eagles have best running back in football and a stout defense also,

The others like Detroit also do not have 2 WR's on 2nd contracts.

Lions - lost in playoffs
Dolphins - 8 wins
Vikings - lost in round 1 of playoffs
Bengals - 9 wins and no playoffs
Falcons - 8 wins and no playoffs in lousy division

Can we pay Tee and Chase? Maybe? Will it equate to getting back to Super Bowl and winning is highly debatable. The Chiefs moved the top WR in the NFL to the Dolphins a few years ago. They got rid of a lot of salary and gained cap space each year for years. I think more importantly they used the extra draft picks and retooled their defense. The Chiefs arguably won the past 2 super bowls with. their defense and an offense that was clutch at crunch time.

They got 5 draft picks from Miami and did an outstanding job drafting. Some will say Bengals can't be trusted to draft well. If that is. true do we really have a chance to build a Super Bowl roster with or without Tee Higgins.

I don't know if the too late, but after a ton of thought, my ideal situation would be to sign Tee to a long-term deal and then trade him for 2 or 3 draft picks. I think there are teams drafting in the 6th (Raiders) to 10th range who would take a proven Tee Higgins over any rookie WR i. the 2025 class. At a minimum, teams like the Pats who have the cap space would give is their 2nd round pick in 2025 + a 4th round and possible another 2nd round in 2026.

Our money could then be allocated to go after a guard like Tey Smith of the Chiefs who could start at OG for the next 4 or 5 years minimum (he is only 25), sign a mid-range vet WR, there are many who could be available from Diggs to Slayton. We could also go after a vet DT. Then use the draft capital to add young players in the trenches.

If we give Tee a boatload of money, we likely do it at the expense of our defense. Could you imagine how good this team could be giving Burrow a top 10 defense? We have won 9 games the past 2 years with a crappy defense, almost worst in the league. I don't see us getting back to the Super Bowl without a major overhaul in the trenches and not sure we can do it if we give Tee big bucks.

Tee played less than 60% of our offensive snaps the last few years. A great starting OG would play over 90% of the offensive stats. Tee helps the passing game. A great OG helps run and pass game.

[*Synric*]

Tee Higgins might be the best WR available this entire off-season cycle. It's either Higgins or Tetairoa McMillian in the draft. At the very least they are tagging and trading.

[samhain]

(01-26-2025, 01:50 PM)Synric Wrote: Tee Higgins might be the best WR available this entire off-season cycle. It's either Higgins or Tetairoa McMillian in the draft. At the very least they are tagging and trading.

I'm not sure they draft a receiver in round 1 even if Tee walks.  It's not a great crop of talent and needs throughout the roster are many.  

I'd be all for spending that 25-30m on defensive help, but then you also have to consider the guards.  No idea if I'm reading things correctly, but I get the impression that they'd rather sign established veteran guards than draft rookies to start.  

I guess my impression is that we have many weaknesses on the roster.  Interior and exterior DL, secondary, maybe linebacker, interior OL.  We have 2 really high level strengths at qb and wr.  Running back is solid and the OTs are set.  Oh, and OBJ is a FA after next year if that means anything.  

The strengths we have are so elite that few if any defenses can stop them.  I'm just not sure I want to subtract from that known to create another unknown.  If I thought it would strengthen the overall roster, then sure. 

[*Synric*]

(01-26-2025, 02:02 PM)samhain Wrote: I'm just not sure I want to subtract from that known to create another unknown.  If I thought it would strengthen the overall roster, then sure. 

Wanted to highlight this. I have been on the it isn't likely so re-sign Tee train since they didn't extend him between his 3rd/4th season... Now because they haven't produced a crop of young players to take over for the veterans from the Super Bowl run 2 years ago it puts Tee Higgins back on the table with the right deal. 

[SunsetBengal]

(01-26-2025, 02:07 PM)Synric Wrote: Wanted to highlight this. I have been on the it isn't likely so re-sign Tee train since they didn't extend him between his 3rd/4th season... Now because they haven't produced a crop of young players to take over for the veterans from the Super Bowl run 2 years ago it puts Tee Higgins back on the table with the right deal. 

Is $28M/per the right deal for you? I can't get past the availability issues at that price. Perhaps something in the $23M/per range, with some possible escalators for percentage of snaps played, post season awards, etc.

[*Synric*]

(01-26-2025, 02:24 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Is $28M/per the right deal for you? I can't get past the availability issues at that price. Perhaps something in the $23M/per range, with some possible escalators for percentage of snaps played, post season awards, etc.

I outlined a deal on the last page 4 year 100m 25m per year with cap hits that look like 18m, 22m, 28m, 32m with essentially the 4th year being an option for extension, trade, or cut. 


Edit: If you view the 4th year high cap year as an option year that deal becomes a 3 year 68m ish deal at about 22.5m aav.

[Luvnit2]

(01-26-2025, 02:26 PM)Synric Wrote: I outlined a deal on the last page 4 year 100m 25m per year with cap hits that look like 18m, 22m, 28m, 32m with essentially the 4th year being an option for extension, trade, or cut. 


Edit: If you view the 4th year high cap year as an option year that deal becomes a 3 year 68m ish deal at about 22.5m aav.

If I am the Bengals FO, I am very hesitant giving Tee more than 60% guaranteed money. I agree on the structure. I can see us offering 4 years 95 million with only 55 million guaranteed if they want to keep him.

55 million guaranteed for a minimum of 3 years is a lot of money. If he does great, he gets the entire 95 million. If not, he is cut or traded after 3 years.

[*Synric*]

(01-26-2025, 02:40 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: If I am the Bengals FO, I am very hesitant giving Tee more than 60% guaranteed money. I agree on the structure. I can see us offering 4 years 95 million with only 55 million guaranteed if they want to keep him.

55 million guaranteed for a minimum of 3 years is a lot of money. If he does great, he gets the entire 95 million. If not, he is cut or traded after 3 years.

I'm just talking cap hits for people that say they can't fit Tee and Chase. The one guarantee that would effect the outline I put up is signing bonus which I'm guessing would be roughly 20m which would be a 5m dead cap the 4th year if cut or traded.



The counter point is a Trey Smith Deal would look like 16m, 18m, 20m, 24m with the 4th year being an option year making it a 3 year 18m aav deal... Question is does guard play effect the offense enough to spend 18m aav on?

[J24]

(01-26-2025, 01:25 PM)Whatever Wrote: True, though Aiyuk was coming off a 1300+ yard season in which he was a second team All Pro.  Tee is coming off back to back seasons where he failed to hit 1000 yards and has never been an All Pro.

This season  He was top in yards per game, top 10 in receptions per game, top 10  in first downs per game,  top ten touchdowns, and  top 10 in WR pff ranking. Also The two best players on the team have been very vocal about wanting  him back. 

But sure let's focus on some arbitrary number and a made up popularity contest on wether we should  sign the guy to a deal or not.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-26-2025, 02:26 PM)Synric Wrote: I outlined a deal on the last page 4 year 100m 25m per year with cap hits that look like 18m, 22m, 28m, 32m with essentially the 4th year being an option for extension, trade, or cut. 


Edit: If you view the 4th year high cap year as an option year that deal becomes a 3 year 68m ish deal at about 22.5m aav.

I missed that post altogether, that does look like workable plan. Well thought out.

[FormerlyBengalRugby]

(01-26-2025, 02:58 PM)J24 Wrote: This season  He was top in yards per game, top 10 in receptions per game, top 10  in first downs per game,  top ten touchdowns, and  top 10 in WR pff ranking. Also The two best players on the team have been very vocal about wanting  him back. 

But sure let's focus on some arbitrary number and a made up popularity contest on wether we should  sign the guy to a deal or not.

You are ignoring availability. 

Dude may be a 150 yard, 2 td threat every game he is available. But if he is nursing a hammy 5 games a season, only desperate teams would pay top dollar for him.

Smart move is investing in a to[ TE, as they earn less than WR's, and folding the savings into the interior oline.

Tee is fool's gold.

[Frank Booth]

Chiefs and Bills are having success without needing 2 dangerous guys on the outside

They knew they had to allocate money elsewhere.

But if you want to be ignorant of that, go ahead

[*Synric*]

(01-26-2025, 03:20 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Chiefs and Bills are having success without needing 2 dangerous guys on the outside

They knew they had to allocate money elsewhere.

But if you want to be ignorant of that, go ahead

Gotta follow the Patriot Way! 

[BoomerFan]

(01-26-2025, 03:16 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: You are ignoring availability. 

Dude may be a 150 yard, 2 td threat every game he is available. But if he is nursing a hammy 5 games a season, only desperate teams would pay top dollar for him.

Smart move is investing in a to[ TE, as they earn less than WR's, and folding the savings into the interior oline.

Tee is fool's gold.

This is also my major hangup about him. On the other hand, he just turned 26. Some guys start their career getting dinged up frequently and then have a healthier stretch. I'd definitely be talking to the team doctor and reviewing every past injury. Is it likely that he is healthier in the future? How much of this stuff is just chance? Some of those injuries have been recurring. Some guys get past that too though. 

[SunsetBengal]

(01-26-2025, 03:40 PM)BoomerFan Wrote: This is also my major hangup about him. On the other hand, he just turned 26. Some guys start their career getting dinged up frequently and then have a healthier stretch. I'd definitely be talking to the team doctor and reviewing every past injury. Is it likely that he is healthier in the future? How much of this stuff is just chance? Some of those injuries have been recurring. Some guys get past that too though. 

Hamstring issues are infamous for never fully going away. If you want Tee on the team, you just have to accept that the hamstring is going to flare up again, you just don't know when..

[Clark W Griswold]

I don’t know what they can/will do with Tees contract situation but there is no one magic way to win a Super Bowl. Some teams do it with defense and running the ball while others are more pass happy and still others are more balanced. You can’t just say signing or not signing Tee means no SB. With the way the Bengals play and try to win signing Tee seems to be more in line with how they are built.

In either scenario they must be sure they have a solid plan and draft well - they will need guys who can play well right away.
They either have to find a way to replace Tees production or find a way to get better at other positions with less $ available.

[reuben.ahmed]

It is my humble opinion that Joe + Chase and a good defense has to be good enough to win a superbowl. Best WR in the league with arguably the best QB in the league should be able to figure out a way to win with an average or better than average defense. Defense still wins championships, although later it is leaning offense. (Chiefs #1 and #16 D last year). This is probably because offense sells...

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-26-2025, 03:40 PM)BoomerFan Wrote: This is also my major hangup about him. On the other hand, he just turned 26. Some guys start their career getting dinged up frequently and then have a healthier stretch. I'd definitely be talking to the team doctor and reviewing every past injury. Is it likely that he is healthier in the future? How much of this stuff is just chance? Some of those injuries have been recurring. Some guys get past that too though. 

(01-26-2025, 03:54 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Hamstring issues are infamous for never fully going away. If you want Tee on the team, you just have to accept that the hamstring is going to flare up again, you just don't know when..

Yup, Sunset. He has had a hamstring injury EVERY single year for SIX straight years. That's not just chance, but just a reality that you have to accept that the guy has balky/tight hamstrings. He's also been on the injury report 3 of the last 4 years with an ankle injury.

[Luvnit2]

I think we need around 30 million in 2025 to rebuild the trenches. Then we have Chase at additional 7 million minimum in 2025 on an escalating scale each year. If we cut Stone, we also need a vet safety.

The question becomes assuming Tee is minimum of 22 million and then what you can they do for 8 million to fix:

2 Guards - one vet like expensive Smith if he does not resign with Chiefs, or a lesser option like Daniels from Steelers or Bechton from Eagles. Bechton seems to have found a home at RG after not doing well at tackle. I am watching Eagles, and he looks very good. I would think he may command in the 12 or 13 million a year range. y plan for 2 guards is assuming we cut Cappa. We need to resign Hill and also add another DT to replace my Rankins cut.

I also plan to cut Hubbard, but we need to upgrade his position. Ny cuts take us up to 74.5 million in cap space.
Cappa
Rankins
Hubbard
Stone
Moss

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/manage/_/team/cin

Additions to 2025 cap needed
Chase - 7 million (already a 21,6 million hit in 2025)
Bechton - 13 million
Hill - 12 million
Hilton - 5 million
Vet DT - 14 million
Vet Safety - 8 million

Higgins puts us over the cap unless creative cap moves are made

Vet WR like Slayton - 11 million

That is 70 million and we still need practice squad of 4 million and our rookies

Bengals FO has some tough decisions to make. I hope they make the correct in FA and the draft

[Luvnit2]

(01-26-2025, 06:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yup, Sunset. He has had a hamstring injury EVERY single year for SIX straight years. That's not just chance, but just a reality that you have to accept that the guy has balky/tight hamstrings. He's also been on the injury report 3 of the last 4 years with an ankle injury.

We know about his injury history, and we know he is awesome most of the time when healthy.

It does not make sense he would command top dollar in free agency, yes, he is the best available in FA and draft, that does not make him a top 25 WR in my opinion.

As for trade value, he is not Tyrek Hill who KC got 5 picks including a 1st rounder, but he is good enough for us to get 2 to 3 picks in my humble opinion.